Poll: Hamas approval rating extremely low

From The Jerusalem Post.

Hamas's approval rating has sunk to significantly low levels in the West Bank and even lower levels inside the Gaza Strip, according to a recent poll for The Israel Project that gathers Arab public opinion on a number of key issues.

This entire article is a good read. It provides some striking poll numbers not only against Hamas but also Arafat and appears to show Palestinians are ready to negotiate with Israel for peace and security. The time may be right for continued negotiations, unless of course Hamas, seeing their sinking poll numbers decides once again to thwart the will of the people.

To read the complete article, click here.

Hamas Popularity Waning In West Bank And Gaza - Poll

From NASDAQ.

The popularity of Hamas has declined further among Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where the Islamist movement rules, and in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, an opinion poll published on Monday found. The poll, carried out by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, found that the Western-backed president Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party enjoys a 14 percentage-point edge over Hamas among Palestinians. If parliamentary elections were held today Fatah would win 43% of the vote and Hamas 29%, the poll found, representing a sharp decline from the last elections in 2006 in which Hamas won a majority.

Hamas' popularity has steadily declined since their election in 2006. In fact, it can be said that Hamas' take over of the West Bank was an attempt to shore up their popularity. However, now they must manage a government, care for their people, and not just be a terrorist organization. They are failing miserably at this as the polls show.

For a full read, click here.

Thousands in north Gaza without power after Palestinian truck bombing

From the International Herald Tribune.

Palestinian officials say around 200,000 people in northern Gaza don't have running water or power. Electric company spokesman Jamal Darasawi says there hasn't been any power since Palestinian militants from Islamic Jihad detonated a truck bomb at a nearby border crossing last Thursday.

Kind of makes one wonder why the Israelis are fixing the power line.

For a full read, click here.

The false hope of embracing Hamas

From Robert Satloff writing for the LA Times.

Jimmy Carter's embrace of the radical Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas -- he actually hugged a senior Hamas official this week -- means that Ramsey Clark may finally get a run for his money as America's most embarrassing ex-somebody.

Why is engagement with Hamas futile?

Hamas, by contrast, has no advocates of peace with Israel. The divide is between those who call for a tahdiya (a brief lull in the fighting) and those who favor a hudna (a longer-term armistice). Neither approximates peace with Israel.

The article is a good read.

Cairo official: Gaza Strip conflict serves Syrian interests

From Haaretz.

According to Egyptian sources, the heads of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, currently based in Damascus, are the only ones authorized to make a decision regarding a cease-fire with Israel, and it is possible that the Syrian government is behind the failure of truce negotiations thus far. "All the evidence points to the fact that Syria wants to divert attention from Lebanon and point the spotlight on Gaza," the Egyptian official said. "The current escalation [of violence] in the Palestinian arena serves the Syrian interests," they said, explaining that the embarrassment caused by continuing violence in Gaza to Arab Leaders may prompt the Arab nations to send high-level representation to the upcoming Arab summit hosted by Syria later this month, after having threatened that state leaders will not attend if Syria continues to interfere in the political crisis in Lebanon.

For a full read, click here.

Looking to the Levant: Internationalizing the Iraqi Insurgency

From the Jamestown Foundation.

A number of Iraqi insurgents are increasingly turning their guns outward—rhetorically at least—toward the Levant (Jordan, Gaza, the West Bank, Israel and Lebanon) in general and Israel in particular. It is no secret that Osama bin Laden has renewed calls for the destruction of Israel and the liberation of Palestine, and has also stepped up efforts to set up bases of operations around the Levant in its attempt to restore the Caliphate over every former territory of Islam, from Spain to Iraq. At a time when al-Qaeda is enhancing its Israeli-Palestinian agit-prop and is developing networks in Lebanon and Palestine, the rhetoric of Iraqi insurgents—whether involuntarily or by design—might play into the hands of al-Qaeda’s master plan for the region

For a full read, click here.

ANALYSIS / Gaza raids met by loud silence from the Arab world

An analysis from Haaretz by Zvi Bar'el.

As the death toll in Israel Defense Forces raids against miltiants firing rockets from Gaza climbed to more than 60 on Saturday, Palestinian Information Minister Riad al-Malki responded by saying: "Hamas gave Israel an excuse to start a war in Gaza." Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also responded along these lines by saying that the "operation in Gaza is not just a reaction to the rocket barrage." Both comments can be interpreted as Palestinian backing of the Israel Defense Forces ground incursion in the Strip.

Reactions from Egypt and Al Jazeera are also mild or nonexistent according to Mr. Bar'el. Mr. Rar'el comments on Hamas' objectives.

Meshal's ultimate goal is to pull elements within Fatah and other Palestinian organizations to the armed struggle, even at the cost of starting a third intifada. So far, Meshal was unsuccessful in his attempts to garner pan-Palestinian support for Hamas' repeated use of Qassam rockets against Israel. Senior Palestinian and Arab officials voiced serious doubts concerning the rockets' efficacy, including several officials who condemned the use of Qassams as detrimental to the Palestinian cause.

The question become, as always, why? Why the absence of Arab reaction?

From Egypt's perspective, it is obvious. The breach of the Egyptian border with Gaza in January disrupted Egypt's territorial integrity, allowed thousand's of Gazan to enter Egyptian terrority, allowed many Al Qaeda elements into Gaza, and caused Egypt to mass troops in the area, especially at the Rafah crossing. Egypt, for its part, acted like Israel usually does in these circumstances. It re-established the border to contain the Palestinians, or more to the point to contain Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood which Egypt is trying to quell in its own territory.

Israel, for its part, played with the idea of carving out part of the Negev Desert to give to the Palestinians and let Egypt supply Gaza from that point forward, completely ending any semblance of an occupied Gaza. The Egyptian government balked at this idea. Israel in effect, called Egypt's bluf.

Jordon, Syria, and Lebanon are silent as they do not want trouble in their own countries among the Palestinians living their in refugee camps.

Most importantly, all are silent because having been given their own territory, Hamas is still making trouble and not leading its people. Instead of establishing its own economy to help its own people, it just keeps up the struggle, it keeps firing rockets into civilian areas of Israel.

Just as Al Qaeda in Iraq is causing "intellectual turbulence" among muslims, Hamas is causing intellectual turbulence among Arab nations. Hamas has been given their own territory, and yet they continue to struggle. Fatah has been given a lot of control over the West Bank and is doing well. It is gaining more control everyday as it shows it can keep order. The economy of the West Bank is flourishing as a result.

Now that Palestinians are split, Arab countries have two examples of leadership. Fatah is doing rather well while Hamas continues to blame all its troubles on Israel. At this point, Arab nations are wondering why Hamas is still struggling when it has its own territory. In effect, Hamas is showing it cannot lead politically and can only struggle militarily.

This point gets back to the "intellectual turbulence" that is moving jihad from an external struggle back to an internal struggle. Fatah is undergoing an internal struggle as it tries to govern a people. Hamas is stuck in an external struggle even though it now commands its own territory.

All governments in the region do not want this crisis to begin a general war in the Middle East. Iraq appears to growing quieter. Lebanon is in crisis, but calm. The last thing Arab governments want is Hamas to cause increased crises in Lebanon and Iraq. For these reasons, they are all quiet.

Gaza Exodus Threatening Repercussions on Egypt's Future

From David Eshel at Defense Update.

These are moments of glory for Hamas. It conducted its campaign brilliantly last week, and as it seems, so far, with complete success. At no stage did Israel have sufficient response to counter the initiatives of Hamas: Its excellent intelligence community, normally capable of pinpointing Hamas leaders for targeted killings, failed to alert on the organization's preparations along Philadelphi border line separating the Gaza strip from Egypt. But in fact, not intelligence gathering, nor experts, just plain common sense was the only thing needed to realize, that breaking the barrier between besieged Palestinian Rafah and free Egyptian Rafah, was only a matter of time. It was also an impressive engineering feat. To plan, plant, implement and execute simultaneous explosions, creating a domino effect, toppling such a strongly built infrastructure, required high level professionalism. Analysts doubt that Hamas, alone could not have done this, without professional outside help. Intelligence sources suspect, that Iranian demolition experts arrived in Gaza, mingling with the pilgrims from Hajj in Saudi Arabia three weeks ago, when Egypt allowed them, reluctantly to return, without sufficient security checks.

Egypt's response:

An interesting development which already seems to emerge is, that on President Mubarak direct orders, the Egyptian border police redeployed to a new line, covering El Arish, Bir Lahfan and Abu Agheila. This step would effectively hand over to the control of Hamas-led Palestinian terrorist organizations a Northern Sinai void of roughly 855 sq, km., almost twice the area of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

For a full read, click here.

Fatah (and Hamas) lose support among Palestinians

The Jerusalem Post reports that Palestinians are losing faith in not only Fatah, but also Hamas.

Fatah still commands a strong lead over Hamas that controls Gaza, with 39 percent of Palestinians trusting it, as opposed to 16 percent backing for Hamas. But in November, 46 percent of those surveyed for a similar poll favored Fatah, and 13 percent backed Hamas. Forty-one percent of those polled said they didn't trust either faction, up from 32 percent in November.

The article goes on to state.

While most Palestinians trust and approve Fatah's peace moves, they have little trust in Fatah's ability to improve their own living conditions, said Jamil Rabah, director of Near East Consulting. "People don't have a problem with the thinking and ideology of Fatah, but they are not happy with the symbols and leaders of Fatah," Rabah said. "They are getting so much money, but will they bring an end to the (deteriorating) situation?"

A plurality of Palestinians (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas to improve their living conditions despite donor nations promising $7.4 billion over the next three years. In addition, Palestinian trust and approve of Fatah's peace moves.

Hamas took over Gaza due to is popularity slipping. The polls show their coup has not helped their popularity, standing in the teens.

So, what is the significance here?

First, this is the first poll I have seen that a plurality (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas

Second, this is also the first poll I have seen where a majority ("most" according to the article) want peace with Israel.

Third, Hamas, who won the Palestinians first elections, now only have support of 16% of the population.

Finally, Palestinians only had a choice between two parties in their first democratic election. Having lost faith in Fatah, they brought Hamas into power. Having seen that Hamas also does not have their best interest at heart, Palestinians became disenchanted Hamas. However, instead of support moving to Fatah, it has now moved to a third, yet undetermined faction or faction who will lead the Palestinians to peace with Israel and serve the people who elected it into power.

I have stated this before in this blog. The fascinating dynamic of the January 2006 election is not that the Palestinians were able to freely elect Hamas into power, but that Hamas (and Fatah) could be unelected in the future if they did not govern for the people since they were now elected by the people.

It now appears the Palestinians would vote both parties out of power. This is the gift the Palestinians were given in January 2006. Many concluded the Palestinians squandered this gift by voting Hamas into power. I contend they did not vote Hamas into power as much as they voted Fatah out of power due to its inability to govern for them. For its part, Fatah rather peacefully conceded power, a first for Palestinians.

Fatah, for its part, seems to have generally gotten the message, and its leaders are attempting to govern for the people to a certain extent. Hamas, on the otherhand, conducted a coup in Gaza to maintain its hold on power. Both parties poll data reflect accurately the amount of trust Palestinians now put in their parties.

Israel should use this poll data to push for peace with the Palestinians. In addition, America should help the Palestinians find a leader for the disenchanted 41% who neither favor Fatah or Hamas and who will govern for the people.

However, even without America's or Israel's meddling, the Palestinians were given a special gift, the gift of democracy, in January 2006. As with all young democracies (including our own), it initially has to overcome significant graft, develop the spirit of a democracy, and fully understand what a democracy gives to its people. This two year old democracy is still young and learning. It is no older or wiser at this point than is a toddler. In fact, some may say, it has entered into its "terrible twos". Yet, this young democracy will continue to grow and florish. It will go through puberty, sweet sixteen, and finally become a respectable adult providing for it children.

Everybody wants to end the Palestinian crisis, but what is forgotten is the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was ended on January 2006. It is now something completely different. It is a democracy. Its people were liberated, not from the Israelis, but from their own totalitarian rulers. Yes, Hamas brought forth a coup in Gaza to retain power, but Fatah is moving ahead with peace towards Israel and peace for its people. Right now there are two divided Palestinian areas, but over time, the power of the people will reunite these separated people.

George Washington gave this country a gift on 23 December 1797. Another George gave the Palestinians a gift on 25 January 2006 as part of the Bush Doctrine which declared one of the goals of the United States was to spread of democracy to prevent the rise or continuation of terrorist's regimes. While not yet a fully developed democracy, the Palestinian people are going through their "terrible twos" enroute in their path to get there.

The Spark of Democracy is Now Burning Intensely in the Middle East

According to a recent poll by the AAFAQ Foundation, support for Hamas is foundering.

41% of respondents support Fatah while 34% support Hamas, and 25% reported not supporting either.

A few things are important about these numbers. First, it marks the first time in a few years that Fatah came out ahead, but even more important it shows that 1/4 of Palestinians do not support either party. I believe this is a first and very significant fact.

Eighty-seven percent of poll respondents said that they disapproved of Hamas's policies towards residents of Gaza, while 13% disapproved of the Fayyed government's performance in the West Bank

While Abbas is not without blood on his hands from his Arafat days, his current moderation to Israel and promotion of democracy is apparently gaining approval from Palestinians while a large majority (87%) of Palestinians disapprove of Hamas' policies towards residents of Gaza.

In addition, 74% of respondents blamed Hamas for the coup in Gaza, while 15% blamed Fatah; 11% held both parties responsible.

Note, the poll blames Hamas for the coup in Gaza, it does not praise them for the coup in Gaza. This is also significant showing Hamas has lost popular support.

The poll also found widespread demand for early presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian territories.

Now, this is the most important statement. I wrote about a year ago that Palestinians for the first time experienced democracy (a government elected by the people, for the people) while other authors pointed to the elections as proof that Muslims cannot live in a democracy because when they do, they elect terrorists to lead. I pointed out that this country (an established democracy) has often chosen the wrong leader at the precisely wrong time (think Jimmy Carter as a recent example). Palestinians were only given a first choice between Fatah and Hamas, an election of having to chose for the lessor of two evils.

This brings me back to my first point, 25% of Palestinians support neither Hamas or Fatah.

Lets think back into history a bit. The PLO was created as a terrorist organization as a banner for Palestinians to rally under against Israel. Later, it became a political party, ruled by Fatah. However, Fatah members were known for filling their own pockets and not helping out their people, hence Hamas, who begin a greass roots movement of education and support of the people, was thrust into power. Palestinians then saw that once in power support not only stopped, but terror and coups prevailed.

This is not what they elected Hamas for and it is precisely why Fatah was defeated. Fatah learned (apparently) its lesson and is trying to rectify itself in the West Bank and with the international community in general.

Whether either party survives will depend on whether they learn that the spark of democracy has been lit among the Palestinians. Palestinians want a representative government who will guarantee their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. Where did they get this idea? Looking northeast, they see a young democracy, called Iraq, pursing the same course and fighting against the same enemy, namely evil salafists who are taking their sons and using them literally as human bombs for their own evil purposes.

The democratic experiment in Iraq, whether or not one is for or against the U.S. goal their, was a bold move by President Bush to put the spark of democracy in the Middle East. The spark has survived, the fire has been lit, and it is now starting to burn with intensity in all people of the Middle East. Young, and old, democracies often do not make all the right choices; however, in the long run, they always become more supportive of the people precisely because they are elected and more importantly unelected by the people.

Time is moving fast in the Middle East to bring these feudal societies into the 21st century. The internet is ensuring the free passage of information. It will be interesting to see what the new decade brings a short three years from now, compared to where it was seven years ago and centuries before the present.

Sometimes democracies elect the right person at precisely the right time. George Bush's bold move into the Middle East with information flow from the internet available to most people has ensured the truth is getting out to people. The truth about Al Qaeda, the truth about Hamas, and the truth about Iran are all being exposed. Most importantly, the truth that all people were endowed by their Creator with unalienable rights has been given to people of the Middle East. These unalienable rights are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. All people want these rights, and the U.S. democracy is the world leader of implementing these rights abroad. It has recently stated to all who will listen that the only way to ensure these rights is the ability to elect and unelect our leaders.

Middle East leaders need to take note. Al Qaeda wanted to kill and subvert this democracy, but instead, they highlighted and enhanced it for all to see.