"Evil is powerless if the good are unafraid" - Ronald Reagan

New York

Sounds Like Afganistan Prior to Elections

Saddam Agents, Militants Plan 'Vicious' Poll Attacks
By Michael Georgy/MyWay Original Article

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Saddam Hussein's former agents are funding a sophisticated alliance with foreign Muslim militants to carry out vicious attacks on polling stations during Iraq's elections, the deputy prime minister said on Sunday. Barham Salih said intelligence gathered from dozens of Saddam's former intelligence and army officers and foreign fighters arrested in the past week points to a major offensive during the polls.


Blogger Lieutenant Colonel Caveman said...

This is a Catch-22 for the insurgents in Iraq.

Overwhelmingly, the vast majority people in Iraq want peace and stability. They know that with democracy comes peace, stability, and prosperity.

Option #1: Disrupt Iraqi elections and quite possibly disenfranchise the various people you are trying to prevent from having peace, stability, and prosperity. Now all these major political groups in Iraq have something in common--fight the insurgents.

Option #2: Do not disrupt the Iraqi elections. Second time failure for Al-Qaeda.

If I was a betting man, I would go with Option #1. It allows the insurgents more options--namely, the prospect that the people of Iraq will not unit to fight the insurgents. High Risk, but potentially high rewards.

However, given that the article being read is open source, and given the fact that in the last 18 or so months, the insurgents have not conducted any offensives against the US military, my bet will be a series of spectacular attacks that fail to achieve the two primary objectives--namely, to prevent democracy and cause Civil War in Iraq.

Now it is up to the US military to ensure that they are a part of the layered defense around polling stations.

Monday, 17 January, 2005  

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