Musharraf vows to defeat conspirators

From The News International in Pakistan.

President Pervez Musharraf on Thursday blamed internal and external elements for conspiring to destabilise the country but said the nation has the resilience to defeat all such elements. “We can surmount all difficulties, [but] we need to have confidence in ourselves and faith in our abilities and we have to defeat such elements,” President Musharraf said at PTV’s weekly interactive programme ‘Aiwan-e-Sadr Sey’ on the “Challenges confronting Pakistan and the way forward.”

While it is important for Musharraf to rally Pakistanis for the upcoming battle, other statements made by Musharraf during this program are much more important when examining the way ahead in Pakistan.

Musharraf said the country currently faced three major challenges; terrorism and extremism; transition to democracy and need to sustain socio-economic growth. Musharraf said a few “misguided and lunatics” were attempting to force their way of life on the majority, but vowed that such elements will not succeed. “There is no place for al-Qaeda in Pakistan ... we cannot allow al-Qaeda to operate and commit acts of terrorism here or elsewhere.” The president said “neither can we allow Taliban here or any support to them. No militants can be allowed here.” President Musharraf underlined the need for adopting a multi-pronged strategy; military, political and socio-economic to bring the country’s tribal areas at par with the rest of the country. He said there was a need to check growing extremism in the society, continue the ban on militant organisations and use of mosques for such purposes. Musharraf strongly rejected reports of any foreign intervention in Pakistan in the garb of operation against the militants. “This is not possible ... till the time Pakistan Army is there,” he added. He said all security duties inside the country will be undertaken by the Pakistan Army. No one from outside can come into Pakistan.” Musharraf rejected reports of any intervention in the country from across the border. He said if Pakistan needed any help in logistics or intelligence, it can ask for it. “But no one can forcefully enter Pakistan,” he added. (emphasis added)

What can be taken from Musharraf's words?

First, Musharraf discusses three major challenges:

1. Terrorism and extremism

2. Transition to democracy

3. The need to sustain socio-economic growth

He then identifies the enemy: Al Qaeda and the Taliban. In the past, Musharraf has made several references Al Qaeda and foreign "miscreants" in the past, but has never singled out the Taliban specifically. I believe this speech is the first time Musharraf stated the Taliban were not welcomed in Pakistan, nor should be supported by Pakistanis. He further states no militants can be allow in Pakistan. This change in attitude is significant and shows a fundamental shift in his policy with regards to the Taliban.

He later refers to a multi-pronged strategy to deal with with Al Qaeda and the Taliban. They are:

1. Military

2. Political

3. Socio-economic

This multi-pronged strategy, in relation to Musharraf's major challenges above, define how he is going to deal with these challenges.

1. His military focus is on Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

2. His political focus is on the transition to democracy.

3. His socio-economic focus is focused on granting the FATA and NWFP regions the same rights as the rest of Pakistanis while continuing to transition the economy to a capitalistic based system.

What ground work has Musharraf laid to ensure success of his multi-pronged strategy.

1. He used emergency rule to move tens of thousand regular Army forces from Kashmir to the FATA and NWFP regions. In addition, he stepped down as Army Chief to ensure if he is impeached as president after the 18 February elections, the Army will still be solidly grounded in Pakistan under General Kayani and his impeachment would not be reflective on the Army.

2. He has banked his country's future on the 18 February elections. He has made relative peace with both the PPP and to a lesser extent the PML-N. In addition, it appears that a coalition may form between Musharraf's PML-Q and the PPP after the 18 February elections. This coalition would allow the PPP to focus on the economy and enacting laws granting freedoms to FATA and NWFP tribes on par with the settled areas of Pakistan. Musharraf can then focus on the military strategy. The transition to democracy will have succeeded on 18 February and will be unstoppable from that point on.

3. Major pipeline deals between India and Iran are already in the works. Construction at the port of Gwadar is underway. Global trade will move through Pakistan through the Gwadar port upon completion. Trade with India has increased further removing possible Kashmiri uprisings. Musharraf's transition from a national economy to a global one will result in GDP increases over the years, especially if he can keep pro-western support for his country. Basing his economy on capitalistic ideals may even make his impending war with Al Qaeda and the Taliban profitable to everyday Pakistanis.

Lastly, and possible most significantly, Musharraf has not discounted external support from the US military in Pakistan. He consistently talks of not accepting unilateral involvement of US forces. However, he clearly details that if he needs assistance, he will ask for it. Musharraf specifies that US assistance will clearly be subordinate to the Pakistani military needs and not the otherway around when dealing within Pakistan.

Musharraf has clearly implemented all elements of national power (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic) prior to the 18 February elections. for eventual success against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan. By specifically naming the Taliban in his message, he has ensured the MMA will not reunite to form a opposition government. Without this opposition, the coalition with the PPP and PML-Q will use its elements of national power to rout out Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the FATA and NWFP regions.

The cards are dealt. The battlelines are being drawn. One side is trying to prevent 18 February elections. The other side is waiting on the results of the 18 February elections. Like so many purple fingers foretold of Al Qaeda in Iraq's eventual defeat, so too will successful elections in Pakistan lead to the defeat of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan. Just how important are these elections can be seen in Musharraf's speech.

“it is my guarantee that there will be a free, fair, transparent and peaceful election on Feb 18 ... I can say it with full sincerity.” He said the bugs, if any, in the electioneering had been removed and added that rangers and the army would be deployed to maintain the law and order, while the Election Commission would conduct the entire process.

I am wagering on Musharraf and expecting 18 February which will be celebrated in Pakistan for some time to come. It will mark the first step towards a capitalistic democracy. It will mark the beginning of the end for Al Qaeda and the Taliban. It will be the birth of Pakistan on the world stage and not just in the world papers due to its harboring of Islamic extremists.