Details of the 15-Point Draft Agreement between Taliban Commander Baitullah Mehsud and the Pakistani Government

From MEMRI.

MEMRI has release the 15-point peace agreement between the Pakistani Taliban and the Pakistani Government. While peace with the Taliban in Pakistan has not worked in the past, I do find items 8, 9, and 13 interesting in this peace agreement.

8. The Mehsud tribe will expel all foreigners in its areas, and will not allow its region to be used as shelter for militants. 9. Within a month of signing the agreement, the expulsion of foreign elements will begin; if the process is not completed, the tribe will receive a one-month extension. 13. If the Mehsud tribe fails to eliminate suspicions of militant training in the area, the government will have the right to take action as per tribal customs and traditions and the Frontier Crimes Regulation.

The last peace accord did not include a timetable for expulsion of foreign elements. This peace agreement does, and it also spells out what will happen if expulsions fail to happen within two months. Finally, I found it interesting the Pakistani military withdraw from the region was not put under the same timetable.

15. Government troops will begin phased withdrawal from the region of Mehsud tribe after the agreement is signed.

It will be interesting to see if the Pakistani Taliban do not adhere to item 9, if the Pakistani military will adhere to its requirements in item 13. Given the timing of the expected signing, it appears if the Pakistani Taliban do not obey item 9, then would should see the Pakistani Army commit forces into the FATA and NWFP regions around July, at the height of the summer.

The timing will also give the Pakistani military time to regroup and replan a thrust into these regions.

For a full read, click here.

US experts expect Pak Army push in tribal area

From The News International.

Pakistan's military appears to be preparing for a new tribal-area offensive against the Taliban leader blamed for the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, US officials and experts say.... They expect military action to curb Mehsud's rising influence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas possibly in the coming weeks as Pakistan's newly elected civilian leaders try to form a coalition government." Baitullah has gone and got himself so visible. He wants to kind of consolidate all of the Fata underneath his control, and because he's sticking out so far, the Pakistanis are going to hammer him down," said one US defence official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It will be interesting to see if this offensive happens. Given the fact the Pakistani government just reached a peace accord with the Wazir and Daur tribes in North Waziristan on 19 February 2008 which many feel will fail like past peace accords.

However, as noted before, this peace accord is unique as it was reached with tribes vice militants in the area. In addition, this peace accord was made with tribes who do not align themselves with the Pakistani Taliban of Baitullah Mehsud. Most notably, it was made with the Wasiri tribe which suffered the lose of nine tribal elders at the hands of Baitullah Mehsud in January 2008 and attempted to bring a lashkar against him.

Making peace with Baitullah's enemies, establishment of Regional and District Coordinating Offices in the tribal areas, and economic incentives to the region are all part of Musharraf's and General Kayani's multi-pronged strategy to fracture the Pakistani Taliban and eventually bring peace to the region.

While we in the US may not like this or past peace accords, it is in effect the same accords we are making with the Sunni tribes in Iraq. Musharraf and General Kayani know they cannot defeat the Pakistani Tribes and Taliban; however, they do believe they can defeat the more extremists elements within these groups. To do this, they must use fractures within the tribes. They have done this with the recent peace accord with the Wasiri and Daur tribes. It appears they will use this peace with these tribes to allow more freedom of action of military forces in Waziristan against Baitullah's Pakistani Taliban.

If we see an offensive happen against Baitullah with participation of the Wazir and Daur tribes, Musharraf and General Kayani may succeed their battle against the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda as a whole in the region.

Pakistan's Interior Minister orders negotiations with Baitullah Mehsud

From Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal.

The Pakistani government and the Taliban appear close to signing the next round of "peace" accords to end the fighting in the tribal areas and the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. Pakistan's Interior Minister stated a deal can be made with Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, while Baitullah announces a cease-fire in northwestern Pakistan.

For a full read, click here.

Baitullah Mehsud's close aide arrested

From South East Asia News.

The Karachi Police have arrested a close associate of militant commander Baitullah Mehsud, Younas. Police have shifted Younas to an unknown place for interrogation, Daily Times quoted sources, as saying. Weapons and explosive material were also recovered from Younas.Younas is a 'right-hand' man of Baitullah Mehsud and brother of his spokesperson, Wahab Mehsud. Baitullah Mehsud is head of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a newly formed coalition of Islamic militants along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and believed to be linked to al Qaeda.

For a full read, click here.

Mehsud warns of strong retaliation

From The Nation.

The Nation has an interesting article. It starts with Baitullah Mehsud.

Baitullah Mehsud, the militant commander, spearheading insurgency in South Waziristan Agency, has asked the armed forces to immediately stop, what he said, targeting the civilian population, or else be ready to face dire consequences.

While his forces have overran two forts, which were subsequently taken back by Pakistani forces, he warns of "dire consequences" if attacks continue. What specifically is he talking about?

Baitullah Mehsud also accused security forces of being involved in disgracing the tribesmen.... Security forces have intensified their operation against militants in the area after the various forts and government installations were attacked by the warring forces. During the military action, a large number of houses have been razed to ground. Meanwhile, due to closure of roads, there is acute shortage of wheat flour, fuel and other items of daily use in the area.

Now, we see it. Since General Kayani's assignment as Chief of Staff of the Army, he has used more forceful methods against lawlessness in the FATA and NWFP regions. But key words here are important.

1. Disgracing tribesmen: This region has always been ruled by tribes and has never been conquered, neither by Alexander the Great nor Great Britain. Instead of conquering these people, both leaders decided in the end to pay tribal leaders to keep the peace. Are General Kayani's tactics bringing shame on tribal leaders due to razing of homes and the inability of tribal leaders to ensure the supply of flour, fuel, and other daily use items? But it appears that General Kayani is allowing the tribal leaders to save face.

Pakistan army has ruled out possibility of grand operation against Mehsud tribe in Waziristan. Talking to a private TV channel, DG ISPR Major-General Athar Abbas also ruled out the deployment of tanks in the area. He said that Pakistan forces take action whenever attack is carried out on the forces or against the civilians.

So we have Mehsud accusing the government of Pakistan and the government of Pakistan accusing Mehsud. In steps the US military.

“Nonetheless, the level of cooperation, particularly in recent months, between the Pakistani military, Afghan military, and ourselves, has resulted in significant success,” he pointed out. US Admiral Fallon said the Pakistan military’s response to the instabilities that resulted in the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) incident and these tragic bombings had caused the government to realise that they “have a significant threat.”

Admiral Fallon cites the increased cooperation between the US military and Pakistan in recent months. Could this be what Mehsud is talking about? If the Pakistani Army on the ground is being aided by American intelligence, then there is the possibility of General Kayani's forces of quelling the tribes in the region, something both Alexander the Great and Great Britain were never able to do. Commenting on this fact, Admiral Fallon states,

“And they have now moved their regular military forces into parts of this area (FATA) in an attempt to put pressure on the insurgents,” the top military official said. “I think the insurgents now are faced with the challenge of not only having us in the west on the Afghan side, working with the afghan security forces, but now they have got the Pakistan military squeezing them on the right,” Admiral Fallon said.

Iraq was ungovernable unless a evil force such as Saddam was around to quell the divergent cultures. This premise was proved wrong. The Soviets got mired in Afghanistan as has several other occupiers. However, America is not mired in Afghanistan. Alexander the Great nor Great Britain could subdue the tribal leaders in the FATA region. Can America?

The lesson here is America will not try to subdue the tribal leaders. This distinction is where all others have failed and America will succeed. We do not invade countries to occupy them. We invade countries to ensure our security by promoting democracry. Once established, we pull out when ASKED. This fact is the key.

Democracy is a great thing. All people want it. Most do not know how to get it. In ancient times, conquests were the norm. However, the US does not wish to counquer these regions in Pakistan. We just ask that they do not allow terrorist a safe haven to train in their areas whic will lead to an eventual attack on America.

For Mehsud to come out and say Pakistan has disgraced tribal leaders, is another way of saying he is getting pressure from tribal leaders to quit the fight. Tribal leaders can deal with a capitalistic America. It is after all, what they are all about.

For a full read, click here.

Militants make a claim for talks

From Syed Saleem Shahzad writing for the Asia Times Online.

The capture by militants of a fort in Pakistan near the Afghan border is not just another isolated incident in the volatile region. It represents a concerted fightback by al-Qaeda to derail any peace initiatives unless the group itself is directly engaged, rather than local resistance leaders.

Mr. Shahzad notes this was in response to a,

Pakistani Taliban shura (council) headed by Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan responded positively to a government offer of a ceasefire, despite opposition from Takfiri elements who view non-practicing Muslims as infidels.

In addition, he infers,

This response is orchestrated by al-Qaeda from its camps around the town of Mir Ali in North Waziristan. Al-Qaeda views any peace agreements with the Pakistani Taliban as a government maneuver to split the militants, and also says Islamabad has been consistently intransigent over the years. Al-Qaeda demands that it be the chief interlocutor in any peace talks, and it has set its bottom line: guarantees of the withdrawal of all security forces from the tribal areas; enforcement of sharia law, the release of Maulana Abdul Aziz of the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque), who was apprehended last year; and that President Pervez Musharraf step down.

I have documented the split among Taliban and Al Qaeda's hostile take over of the Taliban before in this blog. Mr. Shahzad continues with,

Al-Qaeda believes it has sufficiently changed the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan and that the first regional dialogue with al-Qaeda - involving Britain, the United States and Pakistan - will start in South Asia. Indeed, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, in audio and video messages last year, surprised many when he urged the West for dialogue. Of course, this was not a straight-forward offer of an olive branch, but an indication that al-Qaeda aims to be the main negotiator of Muslim issues, rather than local groups such as the Taliban, Iraqi tribes and Hamas in Palestine.

For a full read of Mr. Shahzad article, click here.

It is important for all to understand that Al Qaeda is reconstituted in the FATA and NWFP regions of Pakistan and now believes it has sufficient forces to bring the battle to the Pakistani settled regions which it has done already with Bhutto's assassination and several bombings.

Currently, Musharraf and General Kayani are massing forces in both the FATA and NWFP regions but not engaging in major combat until after the 18 February elections. Al Qaeda understands this fact and is doing all it can to prevent elections or kill Musharraf's rivals to further weaken his power, portraying to Pakistanis that Musharraf is stopping the elections to remain in power.

Expect the week proceeding the elections in Pakistan to be punctuated by several bombings in the settled areas.

However, like in Iraq, Al Qaeda cannot stop the elections. It will begin killing more and more fellow Muslims much like it did in Iraq. This will cause a backlash against Al Qaeda, but this time, the backlash will be in its last remaining stronghold. However, unlike in Iraq, the split is already present, so the backlash against Al Qaeda will be much swifter than it was in Iraq. Also, unlike Iraq, the Pakistani government and military are firmly established. Finally, there does not exist the decisive ethnic rivalries that exist in Iraq today due to three decades of suppression among Shiites.

2008 is shaping up to be a violent year in Pakistan. However, power sharing agreements between the PPP and Musharraf will signal a unified, democratically elected front against Al Qaeda and transition Pakistan to a freely elected democracy.

Try as it might, Al Qaeda cannot battle against this ideal. It will fight hard. It will slaughter many innocent people. But it will ultimately be defeated in Pakistan just like it has in Iraq. During the spring of next year, Al Qaeda's efforts will be focused in Pakistan and will need its fighters concentrated in this region. Afghanistan next year will be tame compared to this year and Iraq will be further on its way to a strong, vibrant democracy.

The only possible way to turn the tide is to assassinate General Kayani and Musharraf which is why Al Qaeda has already targeted these two for assassination.

Hunt for Baitullah Provokes more Reprisals - International Terrorism Monitor

From South Asia Analysis Group. A great update on events in Pakistan.

The Pakistani authorities, including President Pervez Musharraf, continue to be convinced that the assassination of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto at Rawalpindi on December 27, 2007, was masterminded by Baitullah Mehsud ( stated to be 32 years old), the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, who is the head of the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan. Baitullah himself has strongly denied this and accused the Pakistani Army of spreading disinformation in order to divert attention away from the alleged involvement of military officers in the assassination. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Benazir has not accepted the claim of the Government. It claims that before Benazir's assassination Baitullah had sent a message to her through an intermediary that he would pose no threat to her.

For a full read, click here.

Al Qaeda’s Newest Triggerman, Baitullah Mehsud

Sami Yousafzai and Ron Moreau write an informative article for Newsweek about Al Qaeda’s wewest triggerman, Baitullah Mehsud, who was also recently was appointed the head of the newly formed Taliban Movement in Pakistan, a loose alliance of jihadist organizations in the tribal agencies by a council of militant leaders from the tribal agencies and neighboring areas. If Mullah Omar is the head of the Afghanistani Taliban, then Baitullah Mehsud is his equivalent in Paksistan. Recently, Baitullah Mehsud is being blamed for most of the suicide bombings in Pakistan, including Benazir Bhutto's assassination. This Newsweek article examines his rise and the possibility of his forces killing Bhutto.

Musharraf told a press conference last Friday that the tribal leader was behind most if not all of the 19 suicide bombings in Pakistan, including the two aimed at Bhutto, in the past three months. "He is the only one who had the capacity," says one Afghan Taliban with close connections to Mehsud, Al Qaeda and Pakistani militants.... Pakistani and U.S. authorities now fear that Baitullah, encouraged by the chaos that followed Bhutto's assassination, will try to wreak more havoc before the rescheduled Feb. 18 national elections.

The article goes on to detail how was he able to assassinate Bhutto.

Baitullah and his Qaeda allies had laid out remarkably intricate plans for killing Bhutto, who was a champion of secular democracy and a declared enemy of the jihadists. He says Baitullah and Al Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman Al-Zawahiri—along with Zawahiri's deputy, Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, Al Qaeda's new commander of military operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan—had dispatched suicide-bomber squads to five cities: Karachi, Peshawar, Lahore, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, where she was killed.

His forces are able to move freely in Pakistan due to their tradecraft.

With a long tradition as smugglers, the tribals (most of whom, like Baitullah, take Mehsud as their surname) run an extensive nationwide trucking and transport network that reaches from the borderlands into teeming cities like Karachi, allowing Baitullah to easily move men and weapons throughout Pakistan.

Newsweek goes on to explain one of his recent attacks.

One of Baitullah's biggest successes came in August, when his men captured more than 250 Pakistani soldiers and paramilitary troops, who surrendered without firing a shot. Mehsud demanded the release of 30 jailed militants and the end of Pakistani military operations in the Mehsud tribal area as the price for the men's release. To show he meant business, he ordered the beheading of three of his hostages. Once again, Musharraf gave in.

The article ends with Baitullah's goals for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In his few statements to the press, Baitullah has made his agenda frighteningly clear. He vowed, in a January 2007 interview, to continue waging a jihad against "the infidel forces of American and Britain," and to "continue our struggle until foreign troops are thrown out" of neighboring Afghanistan.

One point that Newsweek misses in this article even though they touch on it is the fact that Musharraf signed a peace deal with Baitullah in 2005 (which the article notes). However, what the article does not note is this is the reason we (and other governments) cannot negotiate with terrorists. These terrorists are no different than plane hijackers. They will always negotiate when their back is against the wall, but will later come back to reap havoc. If we allow them to persist or exist, they will continue to grow stronger and their actions will grow to a level of strategic or political importance, like the assassination of Bhutto.

Baitullah is waging war in Pakistan as part of Al Qaeda's overarching goal to create a Salafist Caliphate. This goal has not changed. What has changed is the location, which is now Pakistan and hopefully to include Afghanistan in the future since Iraq is now lost to Al Qaeda.

It appears we have won one battle, Iraq, in the Global War on Terror. We have prevented the re-establishment of another Caliphate in Afghanistan which shows Al Qaeda' inability to project their war over long lines of communication for prolonged periods of time. However, now they have internal lines of communication inside Pakistan that must be dealt with.

Musharraf is being put in a difficult position. He needs US help to close these lines of communication to save Pakistan; however, getting US assistance inside Pakistan further weakens his authority. As power hungry as Musharraf is, I believe he will default to the greater good of Pakistan even if it results in his downfall. He proved this clearly in the past when he overthrew Sharif in a coup. He proved it again when he assisted US forces in Afghanistan. He proved it by stepping down as the Army Chief and naming a pro-Western successor. He proved it again recently by allowing Bhutto to come back to Pakistan to seek re-election a third time to ensure a popular democracy would prevail in Pakistan.

While Baitullah was able to silence Bhutto, he will be unable to silence the growing democratic movement in Pakistan which is why his next major target of terror is the elections. Like Al Qaeda in Iraq, whose brutal tactics caused the people to turn on it, Baituallah's tactics will fail to the principles of freedom and democracy.