Poll: Hamas approval rating extremely low

From The Jerusalem Post.

Hamas's approval rating has sunk to significantly low levels in the West Bank and even lower levels inside the Gaza Strip, according to a recent poll for The Israel Project that gathers Arab public opinion on a number of key issues.

This entire article is a good read. It provides some striking poll numbers not only against Hamas but also Arafat and appears to show Palestinians are ready to negotiate with Israel for peace and security. The time may be right for continued negotiations, unless of course Hamas, seeing their sinking poll numbers decides once again to thwart the will of the people.

To read the complete article, click here.

Thousands in north Gaza without power after Palestinian truck bombing

From the International Herald Tribune.

Palestinian officials say around 200,000 people in northern Gaza don't have running water or power. Electric company spokesman Jamal Darasawi says there hasn't been any power since Palestinian militants from Islamic Jihad detonated a truck bomb at a nearby border crossing last Thursday.

Kind of makes one wonder why the Israelis are fixing the power line.

For a full read, click here.

Iran cleric blasts US-Iraqi military agreement

From Yahoo via AFP.

A senior Iranian cleric on Friday slammed as treachery to Islam a security accord due to be sealed between Baghdad and Washington on the presence of American troops in Iraq. This agreement shows that "Iraqi tribunals will not be able to judge American military personnel and employees of firms who work for the US military," Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said during weekly prayers in Tehran.

Khatami then went on to say.

"American forces will keep the ministries of defence, interior and intelligence under their supervision for 10 years... and will be able to have private jails in Iraq," he said. Khatami charged that the accord will allow US troops to launch attacks from Iraq "against any country that backs terrorist groups." "It is open-ended slavery. It is the worst humiliation. "Any hand that signs such an agreement will be considered by Iran as a traitor to Islam, to Shiism and to the Iraqi people," he added.

I find Khatami's statements interesting and telling.

Obviously, he is concerned that the US will have private jails in Iraq which will hold terrorists and supporters of terrorists. The US will be able to attack countries from Iraq which back terrorists and those countries will be humiliated by the US. Finally, if Iraq signs the upcoming SOFA agreement, Iran will consider Iraq a traitor to Iranian Shiism.

If this isn't considered a military, political, and diplomatic victory in Iraq, what is?

Iran will be and is becoming more contained every day and it does not quite frankly like it. It will have US forces on both its western and eastern borders. It will have aircraft carriers along it southern coast. Economic sanctions are having an impact on its country because it refuses to give up nuclear production and state support of terrorism in the region. Its one ally in the region is discussing a formal declaration of peace with Israel.

Again, it is extremely interesting how much different a year makes. The US is in a position of authority again in the region. We could have cut and run last year and lost much of our international clout and prestige, but President Bush decided to surge combat forces to the region. Now, almost one year later from the start of the surge, Iraq is mostly secure, Al Qaeda in Iraq is effectively defeated, the Mahdi Army is subdued, Israel and Syria are discussing a peace treaty, and Iran is feeling contained and alone.

We can argue all day about whether we should have gone into Iraq in 2003. But in 2008, it appears the Bush Doctrine is well on its way to solving many long standing situations in the Middle East.

For a full read, click here.

The false hope of embracing Hamas

From Robert Satloff writing for the LA Times.

Jimmy Carter's embrace of the radical Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas -- he actually hugged a senior Hamas official this week -- means that Ramsey Clark may finally get a run for his money as America's most embarrassing ex-somebody.

Why is engagement with Hamas futile?

Hamas, by contrast, has no advocates of peace with Israel. The divide is between those who call for a tahdiya (a brief lull in the fighting) and those who favor a hudna (a longer-term armistice). Neither approximates peace with Israel.

The article is a good read.

Syria: Saudis behind slain Hezbollah commander's death say Iranian sources

From Aknkronos International.

Saudi Arabia is believed to be behind the death of a top commander with Lebanon's militant Shia group Hezbollah, Imad Mughniyeh, according to well-informed sources cited in a report on the Iranian news agency Fars. Mughniyeh was killed on 12 February in a car bombing in Syria.

Was it just Saudi Arabia?

"Through a Syrian woman, a Saudi secret service agent who works in Damascus acquired two cars that were used by Israeli secret service agents to kill the commander Haj Imad Mughniyeh," said the Fars report. According to the Iranian news agency, the people involved in organising the attack which killed the military leader of Hezbollah, were Palestinian, Jordanian and Syrian citizens.

If true, this is interesting. Saudis, Jordanians, and Israelis coming together to kill the former Hezbollah military leader, Mughniyeh.

For a full read, click here.

Israel begins largest-ever home-front emergency drill

From Monsters and Critics.

With fears of Iran's nuclear programme very much in mind, Israel embarked on its largest-ever home-front emergency drill Sunday, meant to simulate responses to war and other emergency situations, such as a large-scale terrorist attack. The operative part of the five-day drill, dubbed 'Turning Point 2,' will begin Monday and will include, among other scenarios, simulated missile attacks on towns in populated areas.

For a full read, click here.

Saudi Monarch Calls On Three Religions To Safeguard Humanity

From MEMRI.

In a speech at a Riyadh symposium on intercultural dialogue between the Islamic world and Japan, Saudi King Abdallah said that he had received agreement from Saudi Arabia's ulamaa to call on the three religions to hold conferences in which agreement will be reached to safeguard humanity from denigration of moral values and to preserve the institution of the family, and also to restore the values of loyalty to humanity.

The International Herald Tribune has more on the proposed dialogue.

"The idea is to ask representatives of all monotheistic religions to sit together with their brothers in faith and sincerity to all religions as we all believe in the same God," the king told delegates Monday night at a seminar on "Culture and the Respect of Religions." Abdullah's call is significant and could add weight to sporadic efforts at dialogue among religious leaders in recent years. The Saudi monarch is the custodian of Islam's two holiest shrines in Mecca and Medina, a position that lends his words special importance and influence among many Muslims. He said Saudi Arabia's top clerics have given him the green light to the idea — crucial backing in a society which expects decisions taken by its rulers to adhere to Islam's tenets.

Wondering if Saudi officials will meet with Israeli officials, prominent Saudi cleric, Sheik Muhammad al-Nujaimi, said,

He saw no reason why any Saudi official, including Abdullah, cannot meet with Jewish religious leaders. "The only condition is for the rabbi not to be supportive of the massacres against the Palestinian people,"

Muhammad al-Zulfa, a member of the Saudi Consultative Council, an appointed body that acts like a parliament, said,

Abdullah's conciliatory was "a message to all extremists: Stop using religion."

It will be interesting to see where these talk lead. The significance of these talks could be tremendous with the leaders of the three major religions sitting down and talking about extremism in their religions and how to lessen extremist influence. Also significant is the fact that prominent Muslim clerics in Saudi are supporting the effort.

We Used Women and Children as Human Shields

From MEMRI.

[The enemies of Allah] do not know that the Palestinian people has developed its [methods] of death and death-seeking. For the Palestinian people, death has become an industry, at which women excel, and so do all the people living on this land. The elderly excel at this, and so do the mujahideen and the children. This is why they have formed human shields of the women, the children, the elderly, and the mujahideen, in order to challenge the Zionist bombing machine. It is as if they were saying to the Zionist enemy: "We desire death like you desire life."

This statement should be enough not to hold fire when terrorists are hiding behind women and children.

Cairo official: Gaza Strip conflict serves Syrian interests

From Haaretz.

According to Egyptian sources, the heads of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, currently based in Damascus, are the only ones authorized to make a decision regarding a cease-fire with Israel, and it is possible that the Syrian government is behind the failure of truce negotiations thus far. "All the evidence points to the fact that Syria wants to divert attention from Lebanon and point the spotlight on Gaza," the Egyptian official said. "The current escalation [of violence] in the Palestinian arena serves the Syrian interests," they said, explaining that the embarrassment caused by continuing violence in Gaza to Arab Leaders may prompt the Arab nations to send high-level representation to the upcoming Arab summit hosted by Syria later this month, after having threatened that state leaders will not attend if Syria continues to interfere in the political crisis in Lebanon.

For a full read, click here.

USS Cole and Hizballah

From the Counterterrorism Blog.

On February 28, the USS Cole was deployed off the coast of Lebanon. Ostensibly, the presence of the warship is intended to demonstrate Washington's ongoing commitment to the democratically elected pro-West government vis-à-vis the Hizballah-led opposition and ally, Damascus. Hizballah and Syria are currently preventing presidential elections in Lebanon; the office has been vacant since November 2007.... Senior Hizballah officials have described the USS Cole as "a threat." In October 2007, Hizballah officials threatened that if US troops ventured onto Lebanese soil, they would be treated as “occupation forces” and attacked. UNIFIL has been attacked three times since its deployment in 2006.

Even more significant than it being any warship is the fact it is the USS Cole which was attacked by terrorists in a boat in a Yemeni port in October 2000. If that does not help in showing America's resolve to a democratically elected Lebanon, nothing will.

For a full read, click here.

Mugniyah behind establishment of Mahdi Army

From Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal.

Imad Mugniyah, the senior Hezbollah military commander who was killed in Syria earlier this month, helped form the Mahdi Army, the military wing of the radical Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr, according to an Iraqi intelligence official. He was described as a “co-founder” of the Mahdi Army, Naharnet reported, based on a translation from the Iraqi daily Al Zaman. Mugniyah helped form the Mahdi Army after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in April 2003. He recruited from the Shia communities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and then sent the recruits to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley for training. “The 300 fighters were trained on the use of assault rifles, booby-trapping and kidnapping operations,” the unnamed intelligence official told Al Zaman.

Another excellent analysis by Mr. Roggio.

For a full read, click here.

Iran: Slain Hezbollah military chief's widow points the finger at Syria

From Adnkronos International.

The wife of assassinated militant leader Imad Mughniyeh, claims that Syria was behind the killing of her husband, reported Alborz, a pro-Iranian government source. Her husband, Imad Mughniyeh was killed in a bombing in Damascus on 13 February and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, Syria and Iran have blamed Israel for assassinating him. Mughniyeh was the intelligence chief of Hezbollah's secretive military wing, the Islamic Resistance. " The Syrian traitors assisted in my husband's murder," said the wife.

Very Interesting.

For a full read, click here.

Why was Mughniyah so important?

From Al-Ahram Weekly.

The Americans described Imad Mughniyah as one of the deadliest enemies of the United States. Even before 9/11, he had more American blood on his hands than any other militant in the world. Many in the Arab world had not heard of him before because he never gave interviews or speeches, and changed his appearance several times through plastic surgery to avoid Israeli reprisal. The Americans had a $25 million bounty on his head, and he was on the FBI's most wanted list. Mughniyah was accused of masterminding the April 1983 bombing of the US Embassy and six months later the bombing of the US Marines Barracks in Beirut during the days of Ronald Reagan.

Ms. Fielder continues,

This is when Mughniyah became good friends with Nasrallah, who was two years his senior. Robert Baer, an ex-CIA official who has been tracking Mughniyah for years, commented: "This is a personal loss for Nasrallah. They are basically the ones who made Hizbullah.".... In 2006, he is believed to have played a part in the border operation that led to the capturing of two Israeli soldiers, an act that triggered the latest war between Hizbullah and Israel.... Many in Lebanon believe that Mughniyah was killed by the Americans because in recent months he had been operating out of Basra with the aim of re- structuring the Mahdi Army in Iraq. He had been charged with revamping the troops of Muqtada Al-Sadr into a more disciplined military force, modelled after Hizbullah. This might explain why Sadr has been calling for repeated freezes on activities of the Mahdi Army, with the aim of filtering and fine-tuning the troops into a Hizbullah-like force.

All around, Mughniyah was a bad character who was responsible for the deaths of several innocent people. If the above story is correct, his death will not only hurt Hezbollah, but will have stymied the formation of the Madhi Army into another Hezbollah type organization.

For a full read, click here.

Gaza's New Residents

From the Weekly Standard.

The border incident, initiated by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, allowed some otherwise unwelcome guests to enter Gaza. The Bethlehem-based Maan news agency quoted Hamas sources as estimating the number of Arab men who had entered the Gaza Strip as new residents at 2,000. Many of these men, according to Egyptian sources, toured a number of Hamas-affiliated training bases and security installations and expressed their desire to remain in the Gaza Strip and launch attacks against Israel. Some of the men, according to Arab sources, had recently fled from Iraq, where they had been carrying out attacks against U.S. troops.

So, Al Qaeda in Iraq forces have entered Gaza in force. While Al Qaeda has had members in Gaza for some time, it now appears they have entered Gaza in force.

One thing is certain. No matter where Al Qaeda has hanged its hat, it manages to alienate the populous. Not only does Al Qaeda indiscriminantly kill innocent infidels, but they also indiscriminantly kill innocent Muslims who do not follow strict salafist ways.

While Hamas' shares extreme violence with Al Qaeda, Palestinians in general are not strict salafists. They enjoy smoking, music, television, and the like. Al Qaeda's presence in Gaza is sure to turn many Palestinian noses.

It will be interesting to see how this situation develops. Palestinians have always supported Al Qaeda since it has attacked the US and Israel. Now that Al Qaeda is in Gaza in force, it is sure to begin attacking Palestinians. It will be nice for them to get a taste of their own medicine.

For a full read, click here.

Was Syria involved in Mugnieh's death?

From the Middle East Times.

February 12 marked a point against radical Islam. The killing of Hezbollah's mastermind and legend, Imad Mughnieh, in Damascus should be considered a great victory. The death of one of the most sophisticated and bloody terror masters that had been in "business" for 25 years makes the world a much better place, commented a U.S. State Department spokesman. The question remains: who is ultimately responsible for this? Increasingly, it seems that maybe Syria was behind the attack. Indeed, on Feb. 17, Mike McConnell, the director of National Intelligence, told Fox News: "There's some evidence that it may have been internal Hezbollah. It may have been Syria."

Olivier Guitta provides an interesting arguments about why Syria would want Mughnieh dead.

For a full read, click here.

The History and Meaning of 'Palestine' and 'Palestinian'

From the American Thinker. A concise and accurate history of the land Arabs call Falestine is written by Michael Bussio.

There has never been a Palestinian state in the history of the region. Palestine has never existed as an autonomous entity. There is no language known as Palestinian. There is no distinct Palestinian culture. There has never been a land known as Palestine governed by Palestinians. The "so-called" Palestinians are Arabs, indistinguishable from Jordanians (another recent invention), Syrians, Lebanese, Egyptians, etc. Even the name Palestine came from the Roman Emperor Hadrian around 135 A.D. after Rome put down yet another Jewish revolt. The Emperor, increasingly angered by the rebellious nature of Judah, Judea, and Samaria, became determined to break the back of the stiff-necked Jews once and for all. When asked who the Jews most ardent enemies of the distant past were, the Emperor was told the Philistines; thus the name Palestina, which would later be morphed into the word Palestine.

This article is a great read for anybody wishing to understand the real history of this region.

For a full read, click here.

Mughniyah's Assasination

From the American Thinker.

When the news reported that Imad Mughniyah was assassinated I was stunned. This is equivalent to killing Bin Laden. Except that locating and successfully executing an attack on "Mughsy" was a much more difficult task. To say he had a heightened security posture would be the understatement of the year. He is/was the mythological equivalent of the unicorn, something that has always been talked about but never actually seen. To illustrate this point, most of the pictures Mughniyah were taken very early in his life (his late teens/early 20s... he is now roughly 45). He was vital to Iranian interests in Lebanon because he was someone the Iranians could depend on to execute Tehran's will. He demonstrated that back in 1983 when he orchestrated the Marine Corps Barracks bombing. He was vital to Hezb'allah because of his trusted status with Tehran and the weapons, finance, and training they provided.

For a full read, click here.

Hezbollah terrorist leader Imad Mugniyah killed in Syria

From Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal.

Imad Mugniyah, the leader of Hezbollah’s military wing and a senior officer in Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, was killed in yesterday’s car bombing in Damascus, Syria. Mugniyah was behind multiple terror attacks against US, Israel, and other nations, and most famously the 1983 Beirut suicide attacks which killed 241 US Marines and 58 French paratroopers. Hezbollah has confirmed Mugniyah’s death....

An excellent examination of this terrorist is provided by Mr. Roggio. It is a must read.

For a full read, click here.

Gaza Exodus Threatening Repercussions on Egypt's Future

From David Eshel at Defense Update.

These are moments of glory for Hamas. It conducted its campaign brilliantly last week, and as it seems, so far, with complete success. At no stage did Israel have sufficient response to counter the initiatives of Hamas: Its excellent intelligence community, normally capable of pinpointing Hamas leaders for targeted killings, failed to alert on the organization's preparations along Philadelphi border line separating the Gaza strip from Egypt. But in fact, not intelligence gathering, nor experts, just plain common sense was the only thing needed to realize, that breaking the barrier between besieged Palestinian Rafah and free Egyptian Rafah, was only a matter of time. It was also an impressive engineering feat. To plan, plant, implement and execute simultaneous explosions, creating a domino effect, toppling such a strongly built infrastructure, required high level professionalism. Analysts doubt that Hamas, alone could not have done this, without professional outside help. Intelligence sources suspect, that Iranian demolition experts arrived in Gaza, mingling with the pilgrims from Hajj in Saudi Arabia three weeks ago, when Egypt allowed them, reluctantly to return, without sufficient security checks.

Egypt's response:

An interesting development which already seems to emerge is, that on President Mubarak direct orders, the Egyptian border police redeployed to a new line, covering El Arish, Bir Lahfan and Abu Agheila. This step would effectively hand over to the control of Hamas-led Palestinian terrorist organizations a Northern Sinai void of roughly 855 sq, km., almost twice the area of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

For a full read, click here.

Is Ahmadinejad setting a trap for Israel and the US?

From James Lewis at The American Thinker.

Like the Jedi Knights in Star Wars, much of Israel's safety depends on an absurdly small number of daring pilots and their jet planes. The Israel Air Force has managed to use that capacity with amazing skill and daring, as it showed last September when a dozen fighter bombers and support aircraft jammed Syria's Russian-supplied air defenses and destroyed a secret nuclear facility on the Euphrates river --- not far from Iran. The nature of that target has still not been revealed, but it must have been important enough to risk triggering a missile attack from Syria. That means the target was believed to be very important: most likely a joint Iranian-Syrian-North Korean nuclear facility.

Mr. Lewis believes Ahmadinejad, with Russian assistance, is attempting to trap the Israeli airforce.

The whole thing smells like an Ahmadi-Nejad shell game, with Russian help: put your nuclear materials under a dozen different giant concrete shelters, and dare the enemy to attack all of them, without knowing which one has nuke materials. All of the sites would be heavily defended with state-of-the-art Russian anti-aircraft missiles. Not just one trap for attacking aircraft, but a dozen or more.

For a full read, click here.

'Dear Palestinian Brothers . . . Please Return to Gaza'

From The Washington Post.

Throngs of Palestinians fought off Egyptian security forces trying to drive them back behind the breached border walls of the Gaza Strip on Friday, thwarting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's efforts to end the Palestinian exodus from Gaza as protests on their behalf grew across the Arab world. The standoff threatened to bring the armed Hamas movement that governs Gaza into open confrontation with Mubarak's administration. Hamas officials supported the Palestinians' refusal to be forced back into Gaza, a cramped slice of coast inhabited by 1.5 million people.

The article continues with,

Violence broke out in the late afternoon, when police were due to close the border. Palestinian witnesses said Egyptian security forces fired tear gas and unleashed attack dogs. Palestinians abruptly turned on the Egyptians, pummeling them.

Egypt has to tread carefully in dealing with the Palestinians in Gaza.

Mubarak risks stirring up domestic dissent, particularly among Islamic groups, if he acts too roughly in returning the Palestinians to Gaza, where the Israeli restrictions remain in force. Islamic political movements in Egypt and Jordan led mass protests Friday against the restrictions, which the Israeli government says have reduced the number of rocket attacks from Gaza.

From a fellow Palestinian,

"To be honest, what the Israelis did with blocking the borders gave a boost to Hamas," said Walid Awad, a spokesman for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, a leader of the rival Fatah party that governs the West Bank. "It was a strategic mistake."

This carefully planned Hamas operation was a watershed for Hamas and a strategic misstep for Israel. Hamas now has relatively unhindered access to Egypt from which it can smuggle in rocket parts and other weapons which it can use to further terrorize Israel. It won a significant propaganda victory for its organization which will help it maintain control of Gaza. Israel lost its ability to blockade Palestinians in Gaza into submission. Finally Hamas has opened up a front from which it can now seek to further weaken and bring down Mubarak's government and increase the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.

At this point Israel only has two bad options. First, it can completely pull all support from Gaza causing the Palestinian leadership in this region to begin to negotiate with Egypt for supplies. Second, it can move into Gaza to re-establish the border. Both will bring the international condemnation on Israel.

However, the first choice, if done smartly, will allow this international condemnation to be spread between Israel and Egypt. Secondly, it will force Hamas to refocus its efforts to keep the popular support it just gained in Gaza. The refocusing of effort will be from continuing to terrorize Israel to now providing basic services for its people. These basic services must come from Egypt, who can now use these needs as leverage against Hamas, should they seek to destabilize Mubarak's government or increase Muslim Brotherhood support in Egypt.

I would argue for completely severing all links between Gaza and Israel and declaring Gaza an independent Palestinian state. Yes, a humanitarian crisis would result which the UN would ease, but out of this crisis, Hamas would have to provide for Gazans. If it fires rockets into Israel, Israel can then claim it has been attacked by an independent state and is only protecting its citizens. Retalitory attacks by Israel; however, must be focused not the Palestinian people nor on projects which will increase basic services for Gazans, but on specific Hamas targets, much like the recent attack on a Hamas commander.

Hamas will have to focus its efforts on providing services, which Egypt would mainly provide. Hamas would have to become an administrative government instead of allowing it to focus on terror since all services are now provided by Israel. By having to negotiate with Egypt, Mubarak would maintain a tool to keep Hamas in line. Israel would retain its ability to strike Hamas if it chose to continue rocket attacks.

Geopolitics of Gaza

From The Terror Wonk.

The Terror Wonk provides a different perspective on the "humanitarian crisis" in Gaza brought about by the Israeli blockade and subsequent destruction of the border wall with Egypt.

In the coverage of the breach of the Gaza border, the focus has been on the increased threat to Israel. While there is little question that terrorists will acquire new capabilities and use them against Israel, their gaze may turn to a nearby but softer target. In his memoirs Knights under the Prophet’s Banner: Meditations on the Jihadist Movement, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri observed: The problem of finding a secure base for jihad activity in Egypt used to occupy me a lot, in view of the [activity against us] by the security forces and because of Egypt’s flat terrain, which made government control easy, for the River Nile runs in its narrow valley between two deserts that have no vegetation or water. Such a terrain made guerilla warfare in Egypt impossible…

Many folks see the destruction of the border wall between Egypt and Gaza as a response to the recent Israeli blockade. However, this is an incorrect inference. The wall was cut with torches and then explosive charges were strategically set along the wall which resulted in almost two-thirds of a 12km section coming down.

As shown in this photo, provided by Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty, this was a large, synchronized, deliberately planned operation by Hamas, not something that could have been done in a few days. Instead, a better inference would be that the current crisis was a manufactured by Hamas. For its part, Hamas played Israel perfectly in this crisis and won unhindered access to Egypt as a result.

Hamas used Israel's targeting on militants as stepping stone to start the crisis. Hamas begin to bombard Israel with a multitude of rocket. Israel in turn started a blockade. Knowing Israel's response, Hamas sought international sympathy by playing up a "humanitarian crisis" happening in Gaza as a result of the blockade. At the height of the Israeli blockake, Hamas brought the wall down, not only effectively ending the blockade, but also opening a new, porous border with Egypt as shown in the photo below (courtesy of the BBC).

The Terror Wonk provides the reasoning for Hamas' action.

However, a new base of operations against Egypt could have vast geopolitical implications. Egypt has a fragile economy, frustrated populace with a large Islamist movement, and an aging leadership. There have already been terror attacks in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula with Gaza links. Even if the regime is not overthrown, HISH [Hezbollah-Iran-Syria-Hamas] will acquire substantial leverage over Egypt, and further the penetration of radical Islam into the largest Arab state, while acquiring a staging ground into the Maghreb, sub-Saharan Africa, and beyond.

For a full read, click here.

Egypt jittery over Israeli Gaza proposal

From Yahoo/AP.

The Gaza border crisis caused another sharp flap Thursday in Egyptian-Israeli relations, with Egypt angrily accusing Israel of trying to dump all responsibility for the troubled Gaza Strip in its lap.

The idea expressed in this article is intriguing.

For a full read, click here.

Gaza's power shortage worse than expected

From Haaretz.

Gaza City was dark Sunday night after the Hamas government shut down the Palestinian power plant that supplies some of the electricity in the Strip. Hamas spokesmen blamed Israel for the power shortage following the closure of the border crossings through which fuel for the power plant is brought into Gaza, but Israel said it is providing 75 percent of Gaza's electricity and Egypt is providing another 5 percent. Nonetheless, security officials said Sunday night that the electrical supply difficulties in Gaza were greater than Israel had previously thought. They said the fuel supply to Gaza was tens of percent less than planned, a problem exacerbated by the closure.

For a full read, click here.

Ok. Let's calculate this out. Israel supplies 75% and Egypt supplies 5% for a total of 80% of the power needs of Gaza. Due to closures of the Gaza crossing, fuel supplies were 10% less or 70%. Given 24 hours in a day, then Gazans should be without power for 7.2 hours assuming constant usage. Spike usage (i.e. more power used during the day when people are awake) would possibly increase this time.

However, when power was disrupted,

Four hours after the blackout, Hamas said that five patients died because of the cutoff of electricity in hospitals.

Two factors make me suspect this fact.

1. If Hamas knew they were running out of fuel in their main plant, why did they not cut power to certain parts of Gaza to be certain that emergency services would still have fuel?

2. I thought all hospitals had back up generators. Could not Hamas ensured fuel to hospitals to prevent the loss of life?

Hamas failed to do the two critical things that every responsible government does to ensure the safety of its people.

This brings forth the following conclusions.

1. Hamas is not a responsible government.

2. Hamas is not concerned about the safety of its people.

3. Hamas is a bunch of idiots.

4. Hamas is using the decrease in fuel shipments to further its political goals.

While I truly believe number one and two are correct, I certainly do not believe number three. If Hamas wanted to save the five people who died, it would have done so.

For Hamas, what is the death of five Palestinians if it can blame these deaths on Israel, even though it could have prevented them.

For Hamas it is political advantage. For Israel, it is a grave concern in which they are now questioning if their methods (note, this article is from Haaretz, an Israeli news outlet) leads to death. For a Christian, it is murder, a mortal sin.

Two groups of people are truly concerned about these five deaths, Jews and Christians. Hamas is only concerned about the political advantage. However, Khaled Mashaal is apparently concerned.

The plea was rare show of emotion for the hard-line Khaled Mashaal, who lives in exile in Damascus, Syria. (emphasis added)

That's right, Khaled Mashaal lives in Sryia where he is not experiencing these power outages. This fact brings me to another point. Gaza was turned over to Palestinians. Hamas waged a coup and now controls all of Gaza. Why is Khaled Mashaal still in exile if his party is in complete control of Gaza? Could it be that Khaled Mashaal is happy where he is as opposed to living among his people he is helping to kill. I am sorry, I meant his people he is helping to liberate.

Things that make you go, "Hmmmm".

Israel flattens Hamas ministry in Gaza Strip

From Yahoo via Reuters.

Israel bombed the Hamas-run Interior Ministry in Gaza and closed border crossings with the strip on Friday, sharply escalating what it called a campaign to halt Palestinian rocket attacks.

The story continues noting even though the building was empty, one woman was killed and 30 were wounded and cites, "medical officials, but does not give names, but it then follows with specific source form Umm Fahmi.

"It felt like an earthquake," said Umm Fahmi, a woman who lives across from the blast site. "My house did not only shake, it jumped from its foundations and back down. How could they drop such a bomb in a residential area on top of people's heads?" she said, peering through the dust at the concrete and steel remains of the security complex.

After noting the another building was damaged, calling it the "so-called naval headquarters", the story notes 33 Palestinians were killed this week in Gaza the story continues,

"This is part of our response to Qassam (rocket) fire against Israel," the spokeswoman said. The Interior Ministry oversees Hamas-controlled government forces in Gaza, but not the group's armed wing. The armed wing claimed responsibility for most rocket salvoes since Tuesday, when Israel killed 18 Palestinians, mostly Hamas militants.

Again, we have an exact figure of the number of Paliestinians killed. In addition, we have the reporting validating the building is not used by the Hamas' armed wing without even citing a source. What is missing in this whole article is the number of rockets fired at Israel.

One has to go to another completely different article to find this number. On Thrusday, nearly 40 rockets were fired on Thursday bringing the total for the week to over 100. On Friday, an additional 30 prior to this response by Isreal.

My point being is this article is extremely biased. It cites that a total of 33 Palestinian were killed, states a woman was killed and 30 were wounded. It cites medical sources, but does not offer the name of the hospital or medical officials. It accepts that the building was the Interior Minister's building, but then notes it is not used by Hamas' armed wing (with no citation), and then labels the naval headquarters building the "so called naval headquarters". It also has a human interest portion from Umm Fahmi.

It lacks citing in the last week approximately 130 rockets were fired into Israel from the Gaza Strip or the fact that many landed next to a school for kindergartners. Where is the human interest point from the Israeli perspective. Finally, the story start with how Israel is escalating the crisis.

I'm sorry, who fired the 130-ish rockets in the last week causing a response. It certainly wasn't Israel.

Israel: 'No Options' Out on Iran Nukes

From NewsMax.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told a powerful parliamentary panel on Monday that Israel rejects no options to block Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, a meeting participant said. The statement was the Israeli leader's clearest indication yet that he is willing to use military force against Iran. "Israel clearly will not reconcile itself to a nuclear Iran," the meeting participant quoted Olmert as telling the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. "All options that prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities are legitimate within the context of how to grapple with this matter." Olmert addressed the panel days after discussing Iran's nuclear ambitions in face-to-face talks with President Bush in Jerusalem.

Rather strong words. One can only hope the U.S. will not prevent Israel from ensuring Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons.

Middle East indebted to Bush

From Salim Mansur at the Toronto Sun.

This week's journey of U.S. President George W. Bush to the Middle East -- the itinerary beginning with Israel includes visits to the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt -- is greatly significant and yet, in keeping with his temper, a low-keyed affair as the last remaining months of his presidency unfold. We likely can surmise there is one more visit to the region still to be made by Bush. This will be a visit to Baghdad with an address to Iraq's democratically elected parliament before Bush takes leave from the White House for his ranch in Crawford, Tex. When Bush stepped into the Oval Office -- a long time ago now it seems on that cold January morning in 2001 -- the Arab-Muslim world was furthest from his mind as it was from the minds of most Americans. But the malignancy of the Middle East, ignored by the West and the previous occupants of the White House, would strike New York City, bringing the Arab-Muslim world's politics of fanatical hate, deep-seated resentment and a mountain of grievances to the shores of the United States. The Arabs had squandered the 20th century just as they slept through much of the previous four centuries, while the West created a whole new world of science and democracy. The independence won for the Arabs from the rule of the Ottoman Turks by Britain and France at the end of the First World War eventually became a cruel mockery with a people -- despite the resources and goodwill available -- incapable of lifting themselves up from the broken ruins of their tribal culture. This is the root cause of Arab failure, and instead of embracing the modern world by reforming its culture the Arab political class has indulged in blaming others, most particularly Jews and Israel. George Bush could have remained indifferent to the Arab-Muslim world's malignancy, mouthing pieties as members of the ever fashionable lib-left political class in the West endlessly does, while watching the Arabs sink deeper into the political squalor of their making. Instead, Bush struck directly at the most rotten core of the Middle East -- Iraq, the land of two rivers, choked to death by the vilest of Arab tyrants in recent memory, Saddam Hussein -- to give the Arabs an opportunity one more time to make a better future. Regime change in Baghdad has brought a new Iraq to emerge with American support despite the fanatical opposition of the most backward tribal warriors of the Arab-Muslim world. Iraqis -- Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds -- now bear responsibility that comes with freedom to write a new history for Arabs as, for instance, the far more populous and ethnically diverse people of India are doing. The Arab leaders greeting Bush remain frozen in their hypocrisy, unable to say publicly what they will say privately, being relieved in knowing the United States remains committed to maintaining order and security in the Persian Gulf region. But free Iraq looms large in the capitals of the Arab states, and if Iraqis keep progressing in freedom their example will be an irresistible attraction for the Arab-Muslim world spread between the Atlantic and the Persian Gulf. A democratic Iraq is George Bush's formidable legacy, and the Arabs will be talking about him long after his contemporary critics bite the dust and are forgotten

I could not have said it any better myself.

Syria rebuilding alleged nuclear site bombed by IAF

From Haaretz.

Syria has started to rebuild the site of an alleged nuclear facility bombed by the Israel Air Force on September 6, 2007, according to a report released Friday by The New York Times. A satellite photograph of the site shows new construction in place that resembles the former building, which according to foreign media reports was a nuclear facility in northeastern Syria built with North Korean assistance. Syria and North Korea, however, have both vehemently denied any nuclear cooperation. The New York Times reported that the new satellite photograph shows a tall, square building under construction that appears to bear close resemblance to the original structure, with the exception that the new roof is vaulted instead of flat.

Later in the article, it states

Syrian President Bashar Assad has since maintained that Israel bombed an "unused military building" in the September raid.

A few things I find fascinating about this article are:

1. It was supposedly an unused, abandoned military building, but Syria is spending money to rebuild it.

2. Syria never really publically came out and decried the attack nor did they seek to get the UN involved to denounce Israel.

3. Israel banned coverage of this attack and only recently allowed it to be stated that it had successfully attacked a target inside Syria.

4. If the building wasn't important, why is it being rebuilt so fast?

5. If it is important, why build it in the same spot?

For a full read, click here.

Fatah (and Hamas) lose support among Palestinians

The Jerusalem Post reports that Palestinians are losing faith in not only Fatah, but also Hamas.

Fatah still commands a strong lead over Hamas that controls Gaza, with 39 percent of Palestinians trusting it, as opposed to 16 percent backing for Hamas. But in November, 46 percent of those surveyed for a similar poll favored Fatah, and 13 percent backed Hamas. Forty-one percent of those polled said they didn't trust either faction, up from 32 percent in November.

The article goes on to state.

While most Palestinians trust and approve Fatah's peace moves, they have little trust in Fatah's ability to improve their own living conditions, said Jamil Rabah, director of Near East Consulting. "People don't have a problem with the thinking and ideology of Fatah, but they are not happy with the symbols and leaders of Fatah," Rabah said. "They are getting so much money, but will they bring an end to the (deteriorating) situation?"

A plurality of Palestinians (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas to improve their living conditions despite donor nations promising $7.4 billion over the next three years. In addition, Palestinian trust and approve of Fatah's peace moves.

Hamas took over Gaza due to is popularity slipping. The polls show their coup has not helped their popularity, standing in the teens.

So, what is the significance here?

First, this is the first poll I have seen that a plurality (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas

Second, this is also the first poll I have seen where a majority ("most" according to the article) want peace with Israel.

Third, Hamas, who won the Palestinians first elections, now only have support of 16% of the population.

Finally, Palestinians only had a choice between two parties in their first democratic election. Having lost faith in Fatah, they brought Hamas into power. Having seen that Hamas also does not have their best interest at heart, Palestinians became disenchanted Hamas. However, instead of support moving to Fatah, it has now moved to a third, yet undetermined faction or faction who will lead the Palestinians to peace with Israel and serve the people who elected it into power.

I have stated this before in this blog. The fascinating dynamic of the January 2006 election is not that the Palestinians were able to freely elect Hamas into power, but that Hamas (and Fatah) could be unelected in the future if they did not govern for the people since they were now elected by the people.

It now appears the Palestinians would vote both parties out of power. This is the gift the Palestinians were given in January 2006. Many concluded the Palestinians squandered this gift by voting Hamas into power. I contend they did not vote Hamas into power as much as they voted Fatah out of power due to its inability to govern for them. For its part, Fatah rather peacefully conceded power, a first for Palestinians.

Fatah, for its part, seems to have generally gotten the message, and its leaders are attempting to govern for the people to a certain extent. Hamas, on the otherhand, conducted a coup in Gaza to maintain its hold on power. Both parties poll data reflect accurately the amount of trust Palestinians now put in their parties.

Israel should use this poll data to push for peace with the Palestinians. In addition, America should help the Palestinians find a leader for the disenchanted 41% who neither favor Fatah or Hamas and who will govern for the people.

However, even without America's or Israel's meddling, the Palestinians were given a special gift, the gift of democracy, in January 2006. As with all young democracies (including our own), it initially has to overcome significant graft, develop the spirit of a democracy, and fully understand what a democracy gives to its people. This two year old democracy is still young and learning. It is no older or wiser at this point than is a toddler. In fact, some may say, it has entered into its "terrible twos". Yet, this young democracy will continue to grow and florish. It will go through puberty, sweet sixteen, and finally become a respectable adult providing for it children.

Everybody wants to end the Palestinian crisis, but what is forgotten is the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was ended on January 2006. It is now something completely different. It is a democracy. Its people were liberated, not from the Israelis, but from their own totalitarian rulers. Yes, Hamas brought forth a coup in Gaza to retain power, but Fatah is moving ahead with peace towards Israel and peace for its people. Right now there are two divided Palestinian areas, but over time, the power of the people will reunite these separated people.

George Washington gave this country a gift on 23 December 1797. Another George gave the Palestinians a gift on 25 January 2006 as part of the Bush Doctrine which declared one of the goals of the United States was to spread of democracy to prevent the rise or continuation of terrorist's regimes. While not yet a fully developed democracy, the Palestinian people are going through their "terrible twos" enroute in their path to get there.

Israeli Abuse Of Palestinians Rampant

Iran Daily has a story about abuses committed against Palestinians at the hands of Israeli forces. Specifically,

One in four of Israeli troops serving at the hundreds of checkpoints across the occupied West Bank have engaged in or witnessed abuse of innocent Palestinians, an army-commissioned survey said on Sunday.

A full 25% of IDF Soldiers have apparently engaged in or witness abuse, physical or verbal according to a survey commissioned several months ago by the commander of Israel’s central command. Quoting a senior military officer, the article continues,

"We knew there was a problem, but we never imagined it was this grave."

This article leads me to a few questions/comments.

1. Israel's central command, realizing there may be a problem, commissioned a survey to see if suspected abuse did in fact occur. They obviously commissioned the report to confirm or deny abuses and the extent of abuses. The only reason to do this would be to know how to prevent or limit such abuses in the future.

2. The article does not state the extent of verbal abuse vice physical abuse, but I would assume that verbal abuse was more prevalent.

3. I have never seen an article from the Palestinian Authority commissioning a survey of abuse of Israelis at the hands of Palestinian officials. If they did commission one, the PA would probably be shocked that only 25% of PA officials witnessed or engaged in abuses against Israelis.

Just some thoughts.

Jordan's Abdullah: PA gov't must adhere to Quartet conditions

Haaretz, has text of an interview with King Abdullah of Jordan which Israel's Channel 2 will air today. In it King Abdullah states,

There's international common ground - not just Western but also Arab and to an extent Muslim - that believe that there have to be certain criteria that the new government has to accept if we're going to move the process forward

He further explains,

It's not just ... the international players, but also the Arab countries are also expecting the new Palestinian government to adhere to the policies that we have set out in the Quartet, and in the Arab Quartet also

So, not only does Russia, the EU, the UN, and the US believe Palestinians must recognize Israel, renounce violence, and abide by interim peace deals, but King Abdullah is also saying that Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates expect the Palestinians adhere to these conditions too.

The Palestinians now have two major Quartets pushing for them to recognize Israel, renounce violence, and abide by interim peace deals. It will be interesting to see how this push against the Palestinians plays out now that they are being threatened by not only western governments, but also major Arab governments.