Al-Qaida's ISI Reponds to Ongoing Events in Mosul

Counterterrorism Blog reports the NEFA Foundation has released the latest ISI communique. In it, Al Qaeda denies being behind the recent large explosion in Mosul. However, more interesting is this statement.

the battle is now in its final stages, and it will be a energizing victory for the Muslims, Allah willing. The enemy has begun to stagger, and now has reached its final page, so do not let the opportunity to participate in that historic battle pass you by. In the name of Allah, this battle is of critical importance.... and it will collapse the American strategy in Iraq and elsewhere across the fields of jihad in the Muslim world. (emphasis added)

Maliki also called it a decisive battle.

"It is time to launch a decisive battle against terrorism," Maliki said after Saturday's meeting attended by US commander in Iraq General David Petraeus and Iraq's national security advisor Muwaffaq al-Rubaie. "The battle that our armed forces will launch will destroy terrorism and the criminal gangs and outlaws in Nineveh," he said.

American commanders also believe the battle for Mosul is of strategic importance for the ISI.

"Coalition forces recognise the strategic importance of Mosul to Al-Qaeda in Iraq and our operations will continue in the area," said Commander Scott Rye, a US military spokesman. "This is not a new plan but part of a larger, comprehensive effort to root out Al-Qaeda and disrupt its networks throughout Iraq... We will continue to coordinate closely with the government of Iraq and Iraqi security forces in our efforts to free all areas of Iraq from Al-Qaeda," Rye told AFP. (emphasis added)

The most interesting point of these quotes is both sides believe this will be the decisive battle. Given recent news reports of how Al Qaeda is on the run and making an apparently last stand in Mosul, I do not believe coalition forces are beginning to stagger as the ISI communique states but it is the ISI itself which is beginning to stagger.

In addition, the the ISI communique clearly lays out the importance of holding out in Mosul if the ISI is to have any possibility of continuing activities in Iraq, noting three times the importance of Mosul, "final stages", "historic battle", "critical importance". While two other references are pointed at Coalition forces ("final page" and "collapse"), it seems the ISI is predicting its own collapse in Iraq if it loses this battle.

What is even more telling is the the last line quoted,

and it will collapse the American strategy in Iraq and elsewhere across the fields of jihad in the Muslim world. (emphasis added)

It seems more realistic to substitute the acronym "ISI" for "American" in this quote. The ISI commander who put this communique believes a loss in Mosul will be a loss for not only Al Qaeda in Iraq, but the entire ISI movement in Iraq and jihadist activities across the world.

Al Qaeda called Iraq its central front in its stuggle to build a caliphate which would eventually encompass the world. While small pockets of Al Qaeda still exist in Iraq, Mosul is the last area where Al Qaeda in Iraq forces have concentrated. Destruction of their forces in Mosul will signal the death of the ISI both as a fighting force and a movement in Iraq. Loss of Mosul will be the final, organized battle for the ISI if it loses (and it surely will lose this battle).

While terrorist attacks will undoubtedly continue for months and possibly years to come, it appears Mosul will be the complete collapse of all organized resistance in Iraq from the ISI perspective. The commander of this communique also believes it will be the complete collapse of jihadist worldwide. Let's hope his predictions are correct in this aspect.

[Diyala] After Al Qaeda

From Newsweek discussing Diyala Province two weeks after the start of operations to clear it.

This time the sound of Stryker personnel carriers rolling into the town of Himbus had a triumphal rumble to it. Two weeks after launching an offensive to drive Al Qaeda in Iraq from its stronghold in Diyala province, American soldiers were back, arriving in broad daylight in a trio of provincial towns to see townsfolk cautiously venturing into streets they had once avoided and interacting openly with Iraqi security forces. Platoons watched as residents lined up for fleece jackets and rice being distributed by Iraqi soldiers in the hamlet of Abu Musa. Soldiers mingled with people receiving medical care for the first time in weeks at a clinic in Himbus. And they stood guard while men, women and children filled jugs of kerosene from a tanker truck in Taiha. "Iraq forces now have control of the bread basket, announced Lt. Col. Rod Coffey, commander of the 3rd Squadron of the 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment. "The facts on the ground are we have freedom of movement and the insurgents do not."

How secure is it?

The soldiers' drive back to Warhorse base after their visit to Himbus, Tahia and Abu Musa did offer one measure of Operation Bread Basket's success in rousting Qaeda cadres from their embeds. Three Strykers drove over an IED on a stretch of road the Americans call Route Ann. It did not go off. "There was no triggerman," said Coffey. "With our forces around, they cannot get into position [to detonate their bombs]."

Diyala, once the stronghold of Al Qaeda in Iraq and the capital of Islamic State of Iraq is being returned to its citizens.

For a full read, click here.

Iraq parliament passes law to rehire Baathists

From Yahoo via Reuters.

Iraq's parliament passed a law on Saturday to ease restrictions on mostly Sunni Arab members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party returning to public life, one of the main political benchmarks set by the United States. Washington has been pressing Iraq's Shi'ite Islamist-led government to pass the law in an effort to draw the minority Sunni Arab community that held sway under Saddam closer into the political process. "The law has been passed. We see it as a very good sign of progress and it will greatly benefit Baathists. It was passed smoothly and opposition was small," said Rasheed al-Azzawi, a Sunni member of the committee which helped modify some of the language of the law. The Accountability and Justice bill replaces the De-Baathification law, which Sunnis have long complained amounted to collective punishment against their sect. The new law will allow thousands of former party members to apply for reinstatement in the civil service and military, while pensions will be given to a smaller group of more senior members still banned from public life. (emphasis added).

Another nail has just been put in Al Qaeda in Iraq's coffin.

Four especially important points are present in this article:

1. It passed smoothly without significant opposition.

2. It allows former party members to be reinstated in the military which will assist Iraq with its leadership problems in this organization.

3. It reinstates pensions for many senior members. Undoubtedly, while not mentioned, it also has a provision that if found to be working against the government, the pension can be suspended.

4. Finally, a key US benchmark has happened because of The Surge. What are anti-war, defeatist US politicians going to say now?

With the likehood of a national unity government on the rise, passage of the oil law cannot be far behind.

For a full read, click here.

Iraqi official says al-Qaeda in Iraq is penetrated, has become an open book

From KUNA.

The Interior Ministry announced Friday that al-Qaeda in Iraq has been successfully penetrated by means of a recently formed government security apparatus and is virtually an "open book," confirming that the sectarian sedition in the country was at the end of its rope. Major General Abdul Karim Khalaf, director of operations at the Interior Ministry, told KUNA here "we have succeeded in establishing a capable intelligence apparatus to penetrate the al-Qaeda organization in Iraq and all armed groups targeting Iraqi national security." He said emphatically that the sectarian sedition in Iraq has virtually ended, adding that the new intelligence apparatus is able to achieve its objectives regarding all armed groups operating in Iraq. He went on to say that "al-Qaeda is now an open book for us, now that we have succeeded in penetrating it." Khalaf did not reveal the extent of al-Qaeda's reach in Iraq but asserted that trained Iraqi security elements currently operate under cover within this terrorist organization which he said will be dismantled soon.

As I have stated before, an organization cannot lose as many leaders as Al Qaeda has recently and hope to remain a viable, combat effective organization. There exists daily reports of emirs, commanders, and cell leaders being killed or detained in Baghdad and in the belts surrounding Baghdad.

Note, it appears Iraqi Special Operations Forces are inside Al Qaeda in Iraq's organization. Also note, that this Iraqi General is not afraid to tell Al Qaeda it has been completely infiltrated. As Al Qaeda in Iraq leadership is whittled down daily, we will now see it leaders not trusing of each other, causing its faster demise.

For a full read, click here.

34 al Qaeda killed in day's fighting during Phantom Phoenix

Bill Roggio gives an excellent update on Operation Phantom Pheonix at The Long War Journal.

Coalition and Iraqi security forces were active during Thursday and Friday's fighting as part of Operation Phantom Phoenix. Two senior al Qaeda in Iraq operatives were killed along with 32 foot soldiers during fighting in Arab Jabour, Miqdadiyah and the Samarra region. Another 34 al Qaeda fighters were reported captured.

For a full read, click here.

Eight peace-seeking tribal elders shot dead in Pakistan

The Guardian reports today eight Pakistani tribal leaders have been assassinated in South Waziristan, home to Baitullah Mehsud, leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan.

Eight tribal leaders attempting to broker a ceasefire in Pakistan's dangerous north-west province have been shot dead by suspected Islamic militants in eight separate killings. The assassinations began late on Sunday night and continued into the early hours of Monday morning, according to a statement from a security official and the military. The eight tribal leaders were scheduled to meet each other on Monday in Wana to discuss plans to achieve peace between between security forces and insurgents. All the attacks happened in South Waziristan, a mountainous region close to Afghanistan where al-Qaida and Taliban militants are known to operate. The suspected insurgents killed three of the men in a market in Wana, the region's main town, while the other five were killed in attacks on their homes, the security official said.

Baitullah recently gave the Pakistani government a week to cease all operations in Swat and North and South Waziristan. It appears the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan are now making good on their threat by going after pro-government tribal leaders. Baitullah is also the chief suspect behind the recent Bhutto assassination.

This action against tribal leaders is reminiscent of Al Qaeda in Iraq's tactic of threatening and killing Awakening tribal leaders in Al Anbar which along with the US surge of forces in Iraq, caused a backlash against Al Qaeda in the Al Anbar region with has rapidly grown throughout Iraq.

Musharraf has also had a surge of his own. During the recent emergency rule, he moved tens of thousand of his military forces from the India border of Kashmir to Swat and the Waristan regions to fight Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban. Since this time, these forces have liberated much of Swat and engaged in bombing targets in South Waziristan.

Musharraf will not fully engage Islamist in these regions until after the 18 February 2008 elections in order to not further destabilize his rule and/or his party's decline in the upcoming elections.

One can consider the ongoing attacks in these regions as part of Musharraf's shaping operations for the upcoming battles. Musharraf has prepositioned forces in this region where these forces got their first taste of battle in the relatively less entrenched Swat region, appointed a new Army Chief, GEN Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, who is an expert at crisis management, has inside connections to the ISI, and is rather pro-western. He made arrangements for better air ground integration by accepting support of US Special Forces in Pakistan which will allow him to pinpoint targets for upcoming military actions. He made the case for the assassination of Bhutto against Baitullah Mehsud and therefore Al Qaeda and the Taliban in genreal causing them to lose more popular support. He has poised his country for movement to a democracy with upcoming elections on 18 February 2008. In addition, he amended the constitution such that he maintains control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to ensure it security, and possibly more important, his continuation of power until Pakistan becomes a fully transitions to democracy and its battle with Al Qaeda and the Taliban are over.

In terms of the instruments of power (diplomatic, information, military, economic), Musharraf has poised his country well for its upcoming battle. He has even successfully divided the insurgency in Pakistan to a certain extent. He has also adopted Indonesia's deradicalization program to help transistion radical Taliban in his country. Finally, he has positioned assets to buy over the Taliban insurgents with $800 million in aid in case, like Alexander the Great, he cannot win them over solely through military means.

2008 will be the year the Taliban and Al Qaeda are defeated in Pakistan, their last remaining safe haven. The beginning of 2008 in Pakistan reminds one of the the beginning of 2007 in Iraq. Al Qaeda and Sunnis had apparently gained strength and were looking at recapturing Iraq in total. However, a surge of US forces and diplomacy to further fracture the underlying Al Qaeda/Sunni tensions resulted in almost complete destruction of Al Qaeda in Iraq. So to in Pakistan has Musharraf poised forces and other assets to enhance fractures between Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Just as Iraqis fought against the upcoming caliphate in Iraq noted by the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq, so too will Pakistani fight against the Tehrik-i-Taliban.

Just as Al Qaeda made the mistake in establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq, so too has Al Qaeda made the same mistake in establishing the Tehrik-i-Taliban in Pakistan. Just as Al Qaeda made the fateful mistake of assassinating Al-Risha in Al Anbar, so too has Al Qaeda made the same mistake in assassinating Bhutto.

Al Qaeda thrives by spreading fear, but as Ronald Reagan stated, "Evil is powerless if the good are unafraid". I agree with Amir Taheri, "No, Things Aren't falling apart" at least for Pakistan. In fact, all the conditions are set for 2008 to be a defeat for Al Qaeda in general as the conditions were set in 2007 for the defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq.

All is not well in the "Islamic State of Iraq"

The Blotter, at ABCNews reports that all is not well in the "Islamic State of Iraq" as Jahidi against Jihadi violence progresses. Ansar al-Sunnah posted a letter on a Jihadi website complaining of violence against its members from "Islamic State of Iraq" insurgent. The letter was apparently posted because the Emir of the "Islamic State of Iraq" has not responded to the Ansar al-Sunnah letter. In the letter, the leader of Ansar al-Sunnah complains of,

It claims that some AQI members kidnapped, tortured and killed members of Ansar al-Sunnah in several areas knowing fully well that they are members of this group.

The Blotter also details the same as I have written before, namely, dozens of tribal leaders in Anbar have unified against the "Islamic State of Iraq". These tribal leaders have instructed their tribesmen to enlist in the Iraqi Police.

Many of the Sheikhs had previously worked with al Qaeda but turned against the group as it waged an escalating campaign of murder and intimidation against tribal leaders and their families. The tribal leaders have instructed their followers to join the Iraqi Police and cooperate with the Americans against al Qaeda.

This fact, plus the surge in Baghdad and surrounding provinces will almost certainly bring the "Islamic State of Iraq" to its knees.