Poll: Hamas approval rating extremely low

From The Jerusalem Post.

Hamas's approval rating has sunk to significantly low levels in the West Bank and even lower levels inside the Gaza Strip, according to a recent poll for The Israel Project that gathers Arab public opinion on a number of key issues.

This entire article is a good read. It provides some striking poll numbers not only against Hamas but also Arafat and appears to show Palestinians are ready to negotiate with Israel for peace and security. The time may be right for continued negotiations, unless of course Hamas, seeing their sinking poll numbers decides once again to thwart the will of the people.

To read the complete article, click here.

Hamas Popularity Waning In West Bank And Gaza - Poll

From NASDAQ.

The popularity of Hamas has declined further among Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where the Islamist movement rules, and in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, an opinion poll published on Monday found. The poll, carried out by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, found that the Western-backed president Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party enjoys a 14 percentage-point edge over Hamas among Palestinians. If parliamentary elections were held today Fatah would win 43% of the vote and Hamas 29%, the poll found, representing a sharp decline from the last elections in 2006 in which Hamas won a majority.

Hamas' popularity has steadily declined since their election in 2006. In fact, it can be said that Hamas' take over of the West Bank was an attempt to shore up their popularity. However, now they must manage a government, care for their people, and not just be a terrorist organization. They are failing miserably at this as the polls show.

For a full read, click here.

The false hope of embracing Hamas

From Robert Satloff writing for the LA Times.

Jimmy Carter's embrace of the radical Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas -- he actually hugged a senior Hamas official this week -- means that Ramsey Clark may finally get a run for his money as America's most embarrassing ex-somebody.

Why is engagement with Hamas futile?

Hamas, by contrast, has no advocates of peace with Israel. The divide is between those who call for a tahdiya (a brief lull in the fighting) and those who favor a hudna (a longer-term armistice). Neither approximates peace with Israel.

The article is a good read.

We Used Women and Children as Human Shields

From MEMRI.

[The enemies of Allah] do not know that the Palestinian people has developed its [methods] of death and death-seeking. For the Palestinian people, death has become an industry, at which women excel, and so do all the people living on this land. The elderly excel at this, and so do the mujahideen and the children. This is why they have formed human shields of the women, the children, the elderly, and the mujahideen, in order to challenge the Zionist bombing machine. It is as if they were saying to the Zionist enemy: "We desire death like you desire life."

This statement should be enough not to hold fire when terrorists are hiding behind women and children.

ANALYSIS / Gaza raids met by loud silence from the Arab world

An analysis from Haaretz by Zvi Bar'el.

As the death toll in Israel Defense Forces raids against miltiants firing rockets from Gaza climbed to more than 60 on Saturday, Palestinian Information Minister Riad al-Malki responded by saying: "Hamas gave Israel an excuse to start a war in Gaza." Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also responded along these lines by saying that the "operation in Gaza is not just a reaction to the rocket barrage." Both comments can be interpreted as Palestinian backing of the Israel Defense Forces ground incursion in the Strip.

Reactions from Egypt and Al Jazeera are also mild or nonexistent according to Mr. Bar'el. Mr. Rar'el comments on Hamas' objectives.

Meshal's ultimate goal is to pull elements within Fatah and other Palestinian organizations to the armed struggle, even at the cost of starting a third intifada. So far, Meshal was unsuccessful in his attempts to garner pan-Palestinian support for Hamas' repeated use of Qassam rockets against Israel. Senior Palestinian and Arab officials voiced serious doubts concerning the rockets' efficacy, including several officials who condemned the use of Qassams as detrimental to the Palestinian cause.

The question become, as always, why? Why the absence of Arab reaction?

From Egypt's perspective, it is obvious. The breach of the Egyptian border with Gaza in January disrupted Egypt's territorial integrity, allowed thousand's of Gazan to enter Egyptian terrority, allowed many Al Qaeda elements into Gaza, and caused Egypt to mass troops in the area, especially at the Rafah crossing. Egypt, for its part, acted like Israel usually does in these circumstances. It re-established the border to contain the Palestinians, or more to the point to contain Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood which Egypt is trying to quell in its own territory.

Israel, for its part, played with the idea of carving out part of the Negev Desert to give to the Palestinians and let Egypt supply Gaza from that point forward, completely ending any semblance of an occupied Gaza. The Egyptian government balked at this idea. Israel in effect, called Egypt's bluf.

Jordon, Syria, and Lebanon are silent as they do not want trouble in their own countries among the Palestinians living their in refugee camps.

Most importantly, all are silent because having been given their own territory, Hamas is still making trouble and not leading its people. Instead of establishing its own economy to help its own people, it just keeps up the struggle, it keeps firing rockets into civilian areas of Israel.

Just as Al Qaeda in Iraq is causing "intellectual turbulence" among muslims, Hamas is causing intellectual turbulence among Arab nations. Hamas has been given their own territory, and yet they continue to struggle. Fatah has been given a lot of control over the West Bank and is doing well. It is gaining more control everyday as it shows it can keep order. The economy of the West Bank is flourishing as a result.

Now that Palestinians are split, Arab countries have two examples of leadership. Fatah is doing rather well while Hamas continues to blame all its troubles on Israel. At this point, Arab nations are wondering why Hamas is still struggling when it has its own territory. In effect, Hamas is showing it cannot lead politically and can only struggle militarily.

This point gets back to the "intellectual turbulence" that is moving jihad from an external struggle back to an internal struggle. Fatah is undergoing an internal struggle as it tries to govern a people. Hamas is stuck in an external struggle even though it now commands its own territory.

All governments in the region do not want this crisis to begin a general war in the Middle East. Iraq appears to growing quieter. Lebanon is in crisis, but calm. The last thing Arab governments want is Hamas to cause increased crises in Lebanon and Iraq. For these reasons, they are all quiet.

'Dear Palestinian Brothers . . . Please Return to Gaza'

From The Washington Post.

Throngs of Palestinians fought off Egyptian security forces trying to drive them back behind the breached border walls of the Gaza Strip on Friday, thwarting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's efforts to end the Palestinian exodus from Gaza as protests on their behalf grew across the Arab world. The standoff threatened to bring the armed Hamas movement that governs Gaza into open confrontation with Mubarak's administration. Hamas officials supported the Palestinians' refusal to be forced back into Gaza, a cramped slice of coast inhabited by 1.5 million people.

The article continues with,

Violence broke out in the late afternoon, when police were due to close the border. Palestinian witnesses said Egyptian security forces fired tear gas and unleashed attack dogs. Palestinians abruptly turned on the Egyptians, pummeling them.

Egypt has to tread carefully in dealing with the Palestinians in Gaza.

Mubarak risks stirring up domestic dissent, particularly among Islamic groups, if he acts too roughly in returning the Palestinians to Gaza, where the Israeli restrictions remain in force. Islamic political movements in Egypt and Jordan led mass protests Friday against the restrictions, which the Israeli government says have reduced the number of rocket attacks from Gaza.

From a fellow Palestinian,

"To be honest, what the Israelis did with blocking the borders gave a boost to Hamas," said Walid Awad, a spokesman for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, a leader of the rival Fatah party that governs the West Bank. "It was a strategic mistake."

This carefully planned Hamas operation was a watershed for Hamas and a strategic misstep for Israel. Hamas now has relatively unhindered access to Egypt from which it can smuggle in rocket parts and other weapons which it can use to further terrorize Israel. It won a significant propaganda victory for its organization which will help it maintain control of Gaza. Israel lost its ability to blockade Palestinians in Gaza into submission. Finally Hamas has opened up a front from which it can now seek to further weaken and bring down Mubarak's government and increase the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.

At this point Israel only has two bad options. First, it can completely pull all support from Gaza causing the Palestinian leadership in this region to begin to negotiate with Egypt for supplies. Second, it can move into Gaza to re-establish the border. Both will bring the international condemnation on Israel.

However, the first choice, if done smartly, will allow this international condemnation to be spread between Israel and Egypt. Secondly, it will force Hamas to refocus its efforts to keep the popular support it just gained in Gaza. The refocusing of effort will be from continuing to terrorize Israel to now providing basic services for its people. These basic services must come from Egypt, who can now use these needs as leverage against Hamas, should they seek to destabilize Mubarak's government or increase Muslim Brotherhood support in Egypt.

I would argue for completely severing all links between Gaza and Israel and declaring Gaza an independent Palestinian state. Yes, a humanitarian crisis would result which the UN would ease, but out of this crisis, Hamas would have to provide for Gazans. If it fires rockets into Israel, Israel can then claim it has been attacked by an independent state and is only protecting its citizens. Retalitory attacks by Israel; however, must be focused not the Palestinian people nor on projects which will increase basic services for Gazans, but on specific Hamas targets, much like the recent attack on a Hamas commander.

Hamas will have to focus its efforts on providing services, which Egypt would mainly provide. Hamas would have to become an administrative government instead of allowing it to focus on terror since all services are now provided by Israel. By having to negotiate with Egypt, Mubarak would maintain a tool to keep Hamas in line. Israel would retain its ability to strike Hamas if it chose to continue rocket attacks.

Geopolitics of Gaza

From The Terror Wonk.

The Terror Wonk provides a different perspective on the "humanitarian crisis" in Gaza brought about by the Israeli blockade and subsequent destruction of the border wall with Egypt.

In the coverage of the breach of the Gaza border, the focus has been on the increased threat to Israel. While there is little question that terrorists will acquire new capabilities and use them against Israel, their gaze may turn to a nearby but softer target. In his memoirs Knights under the Prophet’s Banner: Meditations on the Jihadist Movement, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri observed: The problem of finding a secure base for jihad activity in Egypt used to occupy me a lot, in view of the [activity against us] by the security forces and because of Egypt’s flat terrain, which made government control easy, for the River Nile runs in its narrow valley between two deserts that have no vegetation or water. Such a terrain made guerilla warfare in Egypt impossible…

Many folks see the destruction of the border wall between Egypt and Gaza as a response to the recent Israeli blockade. However, this is an incorrect inference. The wall was cut with torches and then explosive charges were strategically set along the wall which resulted in almost two-thirds of a 12km section coming down.

As shown in this photo, provided by Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty, this was a large, synchronized, deliberately planned operation by Hamas, not something that could have been done in a few days. Instead, a better inference would be that the current crisis was a manufactured by Hamas. For its part, Hamas played Israel perfectly in this crisis and won unhindered access to Egypt as a result.

Hamas used Israel's targeting on militants as stepping stone to start the crisis. Hamas begin to bombard Israel with a multitude of rocket. Israel in turn started a blockade. Knowing Israel's response, Hamas sought international sympathy by playing up a "humanitarian crisis" happening in Gaza as a result of the blockade. At the height of the Israeli blockake, Hamas brought the wall down, not only effectively ending the blockade, but also opening a new, porous border with Egypt as shown in the photo below (courtesy of the BBC).

The Terror Wonk provides the reasoning for Hamas' action.

However, a new base of operations against Egypt could have vast geopolitical implications. Egypt has a fragile economy, frustrated populace with a large Islamist movement, and an aging leadership. There have already been terror attacks in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula with Gaza links. Even if the regime is not overthrown, HISH [Hezbollah-Iran-Syria-Hamas] will acquire substantial leverage over Egypt, and further the penetration of radical Islam into the largest Arab state, while acquiring a staging ground into the Maghreb, sub-Saharan Africa, and beyond.

For a full read, click here.

Fatah (and Hamas) lose support among Palestinians

The Jerusalem Post reports that Palestinians are losing faith in not only Fatah, but also Hamas.

Fatah still commands a strong lead over Hamas that controls Gaza, with 39 percent of Palestinians trusting it, as opposed to 16 percent backing for Hamas. But in November, 46 percent of those surveyed for a similar poll favored Fatah, and 13 percent backed Hamas. Forty-one percent of those polled said they didn't trust either faction, up from 32 percent in November.

The article goes on to state.

While most Palestinians trust and approve Fatah's peace moves, they have little trust in Fatah's ability to improve their own living conditions, said Jamil Rabah, director of Near East Consulting. "People don't have a problem with the thinking and ideology of Fatah, but they are not happy with the symbols and leaders of Fatah," Rabah said. "They are getting so much money, but will they bring an end to the (deteriorating) situation?"

A plurality of Palestinians (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas to improve their living conditions despite donor nations promising $7.4 billion over the next three years. In addition, Palestinian trust and approve of Fatah's peace moves.

Hamas took over Gaza due to is popularity slipping. The polls show their coup has not helped their popularity, standing in the teens.

So, what is the significance here?

First, this is the first poll I have seen that a plurality (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas

Second, this is also the first poll I have seen where a majority ("most" according to the article) want peace with Israel.

Third, Hamas, who won the Palestinians first elections, now only have support of 16% of the population.

Finally, Palestinians only had a choice between two parties in their first democratic election. Having lost faith in Fatah, they brought Hamas into power. Having seen that Hamas also does not have their best interest at heart, Palestinians became disenchanted Hamas. However, instead of support moving to Fatah, it has now moved to a third, yet undetermined faction or faction who will lead the Palestinians to peace with Israel and serve the people who elected it into power.

I have stated this before in this blog. The fascinating dynamic of the January 2006 election is not that the Palestinians were able to freely elect Hamas into power, but that Hamas (and Fatah) could be unelected in the future if they did not govern for the people since they were now elected by the people.

It now appears the Palestinians would vote both parties out of power. This is the gift the Palestinians were given in January 2006. Many concluded the Palestinians squandered this gift by voting Hamas into power. I contend they did not vote Hamas into power as much as they voted Fatah out of power due to its inability to govern for them. For its part, Fatah rather peacefully conceded power, a first for Palestinians.

Fatah, for its part, seems to have generally gotten the message, and its leaders are attempting to govern for the people to a certain extent. Hamas, on the otherhand, conducted a coup in Gaza to maintain its hold on power. Both parties poll data reflect accurately the amount of trust Palestinians now put in their parties.

Israel should use this poll data to push for peace with the Palestinians. In addition, America should help the Palestinians find a leader for the disenchanted 41% who neither favor Fatah or Hamas and who will govern for the people.

However, even without America's or Israel's meddling, the Palestinians were given a special gift, the gift of democracy, in January 2006. As with all young democracies (including our own), it initially has to overcome significant graft, develop the spirit of a democracy, and fully understand what a democracy gives to its people. This two year old democracy is still young and learning. It is no older or wiser at this point than is a toddler. In fact, some may say, it has entered into its "terrible twos". Yet, this young democracy will continue to grow and florish. It will go through puberty, sweet sixteen, and finally become a respectable adult providing for it children.

Everybody wants to end the Palestinian crisis, but what is forgotten is the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was ended on January 2006. It is now something completely different. It is a democracy. Its people were liberated, not from the Israelis, but from their own totalitarian rulers. Yes, Hamas brought forth a coup in Gaza to retain power, but Fatah is moving ahead with peace towards Israel and peace for its people. Right now there are two divided Palestinian areas, but over time, the power of the people will reunite these separated people.

George Washington gave this country a gift on 23 December 1797. Another George gave the Palestinians a gift on 25 January 2006 as part of the Bush Doctrine which declared one of the goals of the United States was to spread of democracy to prevent the rise or continuation of terrorist's regimes. While not yet a fully developed democracy, the Palestinian people are going through their "terrible twos" enroute in their path to get there.

The Spark of Democracy is Now Burning Intensely in the Middle East

According to a recent poll by the AAFAQ Foundation, support for Hamas is foundering.

41% of respondents support Fatah while 34% support Hamas, and 25% reported not supporting either.

A few things are important about these numbers. First, it marks the first time in a few years that Fatah came out ahead, but even more important it shows that 1/4 of Palestinians do not support either party. I believe this is a first and very significant fact.

Eighty-seven percent of poll respondents said that they disapproved of Hamas's policies towards residents of Gaza, while 13% disapproved of the Fayyed government's performance in the West Bank

While Abbas is not without blood on his hands from his Arafat days, his current moderation to Israel and promotion of democracy is apparently gaining approval from Palestinians while a large majority (87%) of Palestinians disapprove of Hamas' policies towards residents of Gaza.

In addition, 74% of respondents blamed Hamas for the coup in Gaza, while 15% blamed Fatah; 11% held both parties responsible.

Note, the poll blames Hamas for the coup in Gaza, it does not praise them for the coup in Gaza. This is also significant showing Hamas has lost popular support.

The poll also found widespread demand for early presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian territories.

Now, this is the most important statement. I wrote about a year ago that Palestinians for the first time experienced democracy (a government elected by the people, for the people) while other authors pointed to the elections as proof that Muslims cannot live in a democracy because when they do, they elect terrorists to lead. I pointed out that this country (an established democracy) has often chosen the wrong leader at the precisely wrong time (think Jimmy Carter as a recent example). Palestinians were only given a first choice between Fatah and Hamas, an election of having to chose for the lessor of two evils.

This brings me back to my first point, 25% of Palestinians support neither Hamas or Fatah.

Lets think back into history a bit. The PLO was created as a terrorist organization as a banner for Palestinians to rally under against Israel. Later, it became a political party, ruled by Fatah. However, Fatah members were known for filling their own pockets and not helping out their people, hence Hamas, who begin a greass roots movement of education and support of the people, was thrust into power. Palestinians then saw that once in power support not only stopped, but terror and coups prevailed.

This is not what they elected Hamas for and it is precisely why Fatah was defeated. Fatah learned (apparently) its lesson and is trying to rectify itself in the West Bank and with the international community in general.

Whether either party survives will depend on whether they learn that the spark of democracy has been lit among the Palestinians. Palestinians want a representative government who will guarantee their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. Where did they get this idea? Looking northeast, they see a young democracy, called Iraq, pursing the same course and fighting against the same enemy, namely evil salafists who are taking their sons and using them literally as human bombs for their own evil purposes.

The democratic experiment in Iraq, whether or not one is for or against the U.S. goal their, was a bold move by President Bush to put the spark of democracy in the Middle East. The spark has survived, the fire has been lit, and it is now starting to burn with intensity in all people of the Middle East. Young, and old, democracies often do not make all the right choices; however, in the long run, they always become more supportive of the people precisely because they are elected and more importantly unelected by the people.

Time is moving fast in the Middle East to bring these feudal societies into the 21st century. The internet is ensuring the free passage of information. It will be interesting to see what the new decade brings a short three years from now, compared to where it was seven years ago and centuries before the present.

Sometimes democracies elect the right person at precisely the right time. George Bush's bold move into the Middle East with information flow from the internet available to most people has ensured the truth is getting out to people. The truth about Al Qaeda, the truth about Hamas, and the truth about Iran are all being exposed. Most importantly, the truth that all people were endowed by their Creator with unalienable rights has been given to people of the Middle East. These unalienable rights are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. All people want these rights, and the U.S. democracy is the world leader of implementing these rights abroad. It has recently stated to all who will listen that the only way to ensure these rights is the ability to elect and unelect our leaders.

Middle East leaders need to take note. Al Qaeda wanted to kill and subvert this democracy, but instead, they highlighted and enhanced it for all to see.