The false hope of embracing Hamas

From Robert Satloff writing for the LA Times.

Jimmy Carter's embrace of the radical Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas -- he actually hugged a senior Hamas official this week -- means that Ramsey Clark may finally get a run for his money as America's most embarrassing ex-somebody.

Why is engagement with Hamas futile?

Hamas, by contrast, has no advocates of peace with Israel. The divide is between those who call for a tahdiya (a brief lull in the fighting) and those who favor a hudna (a longer-term armistice). Neither approximates peace with Israel.

The article is a good read.

ANALYSIS / Gaza raids met by loud silence from the Arab world

An analysis from Haaretz by Zvi Bar'el.

As the death toll in Israel Defense Forces raids against miltiants firing rockets from Gaza climbed to more than 60 on Saturday, Palestinian Information Minister Riad al-Malki responded by saying: "Hamas gave Israel an excuse to start a war in Gaza." Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also responded along these lines by saying that the "operation in Gaza is not just a reaction to the rocket barrage." Both comments can be interpreted as Palestinian backing of the Israel Defense Forces ground incursion in the Strip.

Reactions from Egypt and Al Jazeera are also mild or nonexistent according to Mr. Bar'el. Mr. Rar'el comments on Hamas' objectives.

Meshal's ultimate goal is to pull elements within Fatah and other Palestinian organizations to the armed struggle, even at the cost of starting a third intifada. So far, Meshal was unsuccessful in his attempts to garner pan-Palestinian support for Hamas' repeated use of Qassam rockets against Israel. Senior Palestinian and Arab officials voiced serious doubts concerning the rockets' efficacy, including several officials who condemned the use of Qassams as detrimental to the Palestinian cause.

The question become, as always, why? Why the absence of Arab reaction?

From Egypt's perspective, it is obvious. The breach of the Egyptian border with Gaza in January disrupted Egypt's territorial integrity, allowed thousand's of Gazan to enter Egyptian terrority, allowed many Al Qaeda elements into Gaza, and caused Egypt to mass troops in the area, especially at the Rafah crossing. Egypt, for its part, acted like Israel usually does in these circumstances. It re-established the border to contain the Palestinians, or more to the point to contain Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood which Egypt is trying to quell in its own territory.

Israel, for its part, played with the idea of carving out part of the Negev Desert to give to the Palestinians and let Egypt supply Gaza from that point forward, completely ending any semblance of an occupied Gaza. The Egyptian government balked at this idea. Israel in effect, called Egypt's bluf.

Jordon, Syria, and Lebanon are silent as they do not want trouble in their own countries among the Palestinians living their in refugee camps.

Most importantly, all are silent because having been given their own territory, Hamas is still making trouble and not leading its people. Instead of establishing its own economy to help its own people, it just keeps up the struggle, it keeps firing rockets into civilian areas of Israel.

Just as Al Qaeda in Iraq is causing "intellectual turbulence" among muslims, Hamas is causing intellectual turbulence among Arab nations. Hamas has been given their own territory, and yet they continue to struggle. Fatah has been given a lot of control over the West Bank and is doing well. It is gaining more control everyday as it shows it can keep order. The economy of the West Bank is flourishing as a result.

Now that Palestinians are split, Arab countries have two examples of leadership. Fatah is doing rather well while Hamas continues to blame all its troubles on Israel. At this point, Arab nations are wondering why Hamas is still struggling when it has its own territory. In effect, Hamas is showing it cannot lead politically and can only struggle militarily.

This point gets back to the "intellectual turbulence" that is moving jihad from an external struggle back to an internal struggle. Fatah is undergoing an internal struggle as it tries to govern a people. Hamas is stuck in an external struggle even though it now commands its own territory.

All governments in the region do not want this crisis to begin a general war in the Middle East. Iraq appears to growing quieter. Lebanon is in crisis, but calm. The last thing Arab governments want is Hamas to cause increased crises in Lebanon and Iraq. For these reasons, they are all quiet.

Fatah (and Hamas) lose support among Palestinians

The Jerusalem Post reports that Palestinians are losing faith in not only Fatah, but also Hamas.

Fatah still commands a strong lead over Hamas that controls Gaza, with 39 percent of Palestinians trusting it, as opposed to 16 percent backing for Hamas. But in November, 46 percent of those surveyed for a similar poll favored Fatah, and 13 percent backed Hamas. Forty-one percent of those polled said they didn't trust either faction, up from 32 percent in November.

The article goes on to state.

While most Palestinians trust and approve Fatah's peace moves, they have little trust in Fatah's ability to improve their own living conditions, said Jamil Rabah, director of Near East Consulting. "People don't have a problem with the thinking and ideology of Fatah, but they are not happy with the symbols and leaders of Fatah," Rabah said. "They are getting so much money, but will they bring an end to the (deteriorating) situation?"

A plurality of Palestinians (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas to improve their living conditions despite donor nations promising $7.4 billion over the next three years. In addition, Palestinian trust and approve of Fatah's peace moves.

Hamas took over Gaza due to is popularity slipping. The polls show their coup has not helped their popularity, standing in the teens.

So, what is the significance here?

First, this is the first poll I have seen that a plurality (41%) do not trust Fatah or Hamas

Second, this is also the first poll I have seen where a majority ("most" according to the article) want peace with Israel.

Third, Hamas, who won the Palestinians first elections, now only have support of 16% of the population.

Finally, Palestinians only had a choice between two parties in their first democratic election. Having lost faith in Fatah, they brought Hamas into power. Having seen that Hamas also does not have their best interest at heart, Palestinians became disenchanted Hamas. However, instead of support moving to Fatah, it has now moved to a third, yet undetermined faction or faction who will lead the Palestinians to peace with Israel and serve the people who elected it into power.

I have stated this before in this blog. The fascinating dynamic of the January 2006 election is not that the Palestinians were able to freely elect Hamas into power, but that Hamas (and Fatah) could be unelected in the future if they did not govern for the people since they were now elected by the people.

It now appears the Palestinians would vote both parties out of power. This is the gift the Palestinians were given in January 2006. Many concluded the Palestinians squandered this gift by voting Hamas into power. I contend they did not vote Hamas into power as much as they voted Fatah out of power due to its inability to govern for them. For its part, Fatah rather peacefully conceded power, a first for Palestinians.

Fatah, for its part, seems to have generally gotten the message, and its leaders are attempting to govern for the people to a certain extent. Hamas, on the otherhand, conducted a coup in Gaza to maintain its hold on power. Both parties poll data reflect accurately the amount of trust Palestinians now put in their parties.

Israel should use this poll data to push for peace with the Palestinians. In addition, America should help the Palestinians find a leader for the disenchanted 41% who neither favor Fatah or Hamas and who will govern for the people.

However, even without America's or Israel's meddling, the Palestinians were given a special gift, the gift of democracy, in January 2006. As with all young democracies (including our own), it initially has to overcome significant graft, develop the spirit of a democracy, and fully understand what a democracy gives to its people. This two year old democracy is still young and learning. It is no older or wiser at this point than is a toddler. In fact, some may say, it has entered into its "terrible twos". Yet, this young democracy will continue to grow and florish. It will go through puberty, sweet sixteen, and finally become a respectable adult providing for it children.

Everybody wants to end the Palestinian crisis, but what is forgotten is the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was ended on January 2006. It is now something completely different. It is a democracy. Its people were liberated, not from the Israelis, but from their own totalitarian rulers. Yes, Hamas brought forth a coup in Gaza to retain power, but Fatah is moving ahead with peace towards Israel and peace for its people. Right now there are two divided Palestinian areas, but over time, the power of the people will reunite these separated people.

George Washington gave this country a gift on 23 December 1797. Another George gave the Palestinians a gift on 25 January 2006 as part of the Bush Doctrine which declared one of the goals of the United States was to spread of democracy to prevent the rise or continuation of terrorist's regimes. While not yet a fully developed democracy, the Palestinian people are going through their "terrible twos" enroute in their path to get there.

The Spark of Democracy is Now Burning Intensely in the Middle East

According to a recent poll by the AAFAQ Foundation, support for Hamas is foundering.

41% of respondents support Fatah while 34% support Hamas, and 25% reported not supporting either.

A few things are important about these numbers. First, it marks the first time in a few years that Fatah came out ahead, but even more important it shows that 1/4 of Palestinians do not support either party. I believe this is a first and very significant fact.

Eighty-seven percent of poll respondents said that they disapproved of Hamas's policies towards residents of Gaza, while 13% disapproved of the Fayyed government's performance in the West Bank

While Abbas is not without blood on his hands from his Arafat days, his current moderation to Israel and promotion of democracy is apparently gaining approval from Palestinians while a large majority (87%) of Palestinians disapprove of Hamas' policies towards residents of Gaza.

In addition, 74% of respondents blamed Hamas for the coup in Gaza, while 15% blamed Fatah; 11% held both parties responsible.

Note, the poll blames Hamas for the coup in Gaza, it does not praise them for the coup in Gaza. This is also significant showing Hamas has lost popular support.

The poll also found widespread demand for early presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian territories.

Now, this is the most important statement. I wrote about a year ago that Palestinians for the first time experienced democracy (a government elected by the people, for the people) while other authors pointed to the elections as proof that Muslims cannot live in a democracy because when they do, they elect terrorists to lead. I pointed out that this country (an established democracy) has often chosen the wrong leader at the precisely wrong time (think Jimmy Carter as a recent example). Palestinians were only given a first choice between Fatah and Hamas, an election of having to chose for the lessor of two evils.

This brings me back to my first point, 25% of Palestinians support neither Hamas or Fatah.

Lets think back into history a bit. The PLO was created as a terrorist organization as a banner for Palestinians to rally under against Israel. Later, it became a political party, ruled by Fatah. However, Fatah members were known for filling their own pockets and not helping out their people, hence Hamas, who begin a greass roots movement of education and support of the people, was thrust into power. Palestinians then saw that once in power support not only stopped, but terror and coups prevailed.

This is not what they elected Hamas for and it is precisely why Fatah was defeated. Fatah learned (apparently) its lesson and is trying to rectify itself in the West Bank and with the international community in general.

Whether either party survives will depend on whether they learn that the spark of democracy has been lit among the Palestinians. Palestinians want a representative government who will guarantee their life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. Where did they get this idea? Looking northeast, they see a young democracy, called Iraq, pursing the same course and fighting against the same enemy, namely evil salafists who are taking their sons and using them literally as human bombs for their own evil purposes.

The democratic experiment in Iraq, whether or not one is for or against the U.S. goal their, was a bold move by President Bush to put the spark of democracy in the Middle East. The spark has survived, the fire has been lit, and it is now starting to burn with intensity in all people of the Middle East. Young, and old, democracies often do not make all the right choices; however, in the long run, they always become more supportive of the people precisely because they are elected and more importantly unelected by the people.

Time is moving fast in the Middle East to bring these feudal societies into the 21st century. The internet is ensuring the free passage of information. It will be interesting to see what the new decade brings a short three years from now, compared to where it was seven years ago and centuries before the present.

Sometimes democracies elect the right person at precisely the right time. George Bush's bold move into the Middle East with information flow from the internet available to most people has ensured the truth is getting out to people. The truth about Al Qaeda, the truth about Hamas, and the truth about Iran are all being exposed. Most importantly, the truth that all people were endowed by their Creator with unalienable rights has been given to people of the Middle East. These unalienable rights are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. All people want these rights, and the U.S. democracy is the world leader of implementing these rights abroad. It has recently stated to all who will listen that the only way to ensure these rights is the ability to elect and unelect our leaders.

Middle East leaders need to take note. Al Qaeda wanted to kill and subvert this democracy, but instead, they highlighted and enhanced it for all to see.