Uncertainty Facing Iraq’s Awakening Movement Puts U.S. Strategy at Risk

From The Jamestown Foudnation.

As Iraq’s security situation deteriorates in the midst of resurgent violence, an increase in internal and external pressures facing the Awakening (Sahwa) Movement may jeopardize the prospects and goals set forth in the U.S. counter-insurgency strategy created by U.S. General David Petraeus. The formation of the Awakening Councils seemed a promising linchpin to the “surge” strategy, which has shown concrete signs of improving Iraq’s security sector. Though the rise of the Awakening movement contributed substantially in limiting al-Qaeda in Iraq in the short term, its forces face uncertain and problematic long-term challenges. If the dilemmas confronting the Awakening members continue to be marginalized by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government, Iraq’s improved security situation is likely to revert back to sectarianism and civil war-like conditions.

A very interesting article.

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Diary of an Insurgent In Retreat

From the Washington Post.

On Nov. 3, U.S. soldiers raided a safe house of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq near the northern city of Balad. Not a single combatant was captured, but inside the house they found something valuable: a diary and will written in neat Arabic script. "I am Abu Tariq, Emir of al-Layin and al-Mashadah Sector," it began. Over 16 pages, the al-Qaeda in Iraq leader detailed the organization's demise in his sector. He once had 600 men, but now his force was down to 20 or fewer, he wrote. They had lost weapons and allies. Abu Tariq focused his anger in particular on the Sunni fighters and tribesmen who have turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq and joined the U.S.-backed Sunni Sahwa, or "Awakening," forces.

Abu Tariq went from 600 to 20 Al Qaeda fighters in the October 2007 timeframe. According to the article, he was the religious emir of an area stretching from Taji to south of Balad. The area marks the center of the famous "Sunni Triangle" along the Tigris River Valley. More importantly,

He provided details of what appears to be one of the ways his group financed its activities -- buying and selling trucks and cars, which he called "spoils." He recorded incomplete transactions, including details of money still owed to his group.

Al Qaeda in Iraq, in the heart of the Sunni Triangle, has been decimated according to a diary from one of their own leaders who has now fled to Mosul. The diary speaks of desertions, dismantled battalions, and money woes of Al Qaeda in Iraq.

Al Qaeda in Iraq is on its last leg due to The Surge of US forces in Iraq. They have consolidated their forces in Mosul in the hopes of regrouping; however, they are encircled by Iraqi Security and US Forces. January 2007 was a time in which many members of the US Government and MSM were saying all hope for victory in Iraq was lost. Just one year later, the cards have completely turned and it now seems all hope is lost for Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda in general.

One wonders what Iraq and Al Qaeda would be like today if we had listened to defeatist forces in the US Government and the MSM and began the withdraw of forces last year instead of surging them.

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Iraq Awakening Councils members join police

From Alsumaria.

Loyalty for the country and casting away confessionalism are two headlines that constitute the key of joining in Awakening Councils to Iraq Security Forces. In fact, steps towards joining in Awakening Councils members to Iraqi forces are ongoing since US Army announced that 9 thousand members of (Sahwa) or Awakening Councils are ready to enter into police or army after inspecting their situation. Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, US military spokesman, told AFP that other Awakening Council members are waiting for the opportunities that would allow them to join in Iraq Security Forces.

Reconciliation continue daily in Iraq. More signs of progress. All is not perfect, but it is progressing.

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Attacks imperil U.S.-backed militias in Iraq

From International Herald Tribune.

American-backed Sunni militias who have fought Sunni extremists to a standstill in some of Iraq's bloodiest battlegrounds are being hit with a wave of assassinations and bomb attacks, threatening a fragile linchpin of the military's strategy to pacify the nation.

Al Qaeda is targeting "Awakening" groups.

Officials say that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has a two-pronged strategy: directing strikes against Awakening members to intimidate and punish them for cooperating with the Americans, and infiltrating the groups to glean intelligence and discredit the movement in the eyes of an already wary Shiite-led government. "Al Qaeda is trying to assassinate all the Awakening members that support the government, but I believe that criminal militias are also doing this," Bolani said during a recent interview in Taji.

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