Anbar: U.S. trophy for Iraq security losing its shine

From Reuters via Yahoo.

I find this article extremely interesting in its slant towards Anbar security losing ground, as first suggested by the title and reading its first sentence.

Tensions are simmering again in once bloody Anbar province, Washington's prize good news story for security in Iraq.

But when reading the quotes from Anbar residents, one gets a different perspective.

"We thought that when security was established in Anbar, then the situation would turn to development and reconstruction, but we're surprised to see neglect from the government," said Kamal Nouri, a member of Anbar's tribal council.

Anbaris want jobs because,

The city desperately needs potable water, but a plan to stop sewage contamination has been stalled for months. The province was also once a major manufacturing centre, but little has been done to re-open the factories that at one time employed thousands. Falluja councilors and the U.S. military have said job creation is crucial to lasting security. The unemployment figure in Falluja alone is 20,000, said city council leader Sheikh Hameed al-Alwani. "We're worried that the unemployed will deviate to bad ways to make a living. Al Qaeda has great financing, so we're afraid for our youth," Alwani said. [Emphasis Added]

It does not appear that Anbaris will go back to being militants. Instead, they want job growth to prevent Al Qaeda from enticing former militants back to their old ways. They way out of this predicament is not a return to militancy, but through elections.

Most Sunnis boycotted 2005 local polls and blame local councilors for failing to represent their interests and for delays in jobs and services. The councilors blame the central Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad.... Meanwhile, the Sahwa leadership has formed a political party and is, like others in Anbar, pinning its hopes for progress on the provincial polls, due by October 1. "I expect great competition and voting for the provincial polls, the opposite of the past, when people's wisdom was weak and ruled by the misconception that voting ... meant supporting the occupation," bank worker Ahmed Latif said. "People will not accept the bad management of the past." [Emphasis added]

When reading this article one does not get the sense that Awakening groups will go back to being militants as the author points out in his title and first sentence. Instead one gets a sense of frustration with the national government and local counselors who were elected when Sunnis boycotted the last elections. Now they have made political parties and are pinning their hopes on 01 October provincial elections. And unlike last elections where parties were voted for, this election people will be voted for.

Yes, Anbaris are growing more and more frustrated each day, but they plan to take their frustration out on current politicians in the upcoming 01 October provincial elections and not through the use of force. It sounds like this young democracy in Iraq is headed in precisely the right, and not wrong, direction.

Just like in Pakistan where extremists parties suffered a resounding defeat, expect Iraqi extremists (on both the Sunni and Shia side) to suffer a resounding defeat in upcoming provincial elections paving the way for secular businessmen (and women) to lead Iraq towards a vibrant democracy in the heart of the Middle East, the original war goal of the invasion.

Sons of Iraq

From Alsumaria.

Heads of Awakening Councils have warned the US military of halting cooperation in fighting Al Qaeda unless financial dues are paid for awakening members. Success achieved so far in fighting armed factions disseminating fear and terror by gory explosions around Iraq mainly Anbar Province, is shaking. 80,000 members of Awakening Councils have threatened to strike if they don’t receive their payments of 10$ a day. They accused the United States of using them for dangerous jobs and then leaving them in the lurch.

In another story, Maliki agreeed to merge Awakenings in Iraq Forces.

While marking the birth anniversary of Prophet Mohammed, in Al Aazamiya District, Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki pledged to merge Awakening councils in Al Aazamiya into security institutions. In a speech delivered in Imam Abu Hanifa Al Naaman mosque, Al Maliki said the government will work on easing hindrances and opening all closed institutions before Iraqis who have faced challenges fiercely. Al Maliki’s statements came in line with demands of head of Sunni endowment Sheikh Ahmad Abdul Ghafour Al Samirrai who called to merge eligible members of Awakening Councils with army and police ranks to be part of security and military institutions.

The Maliki government will have to merge Sons of Iraq into security institutions if they hope to maintain recent security gains.

The US has biometric data on all Sons of Iraq members. The Maliki government should integrate these members into their ranks after a vetting process. The integration of Iraqi Security Forces with Sunni Sons of Iraq is needed to complete reconciliation at the national level.

The Other Surge

From Talisman Gate.

Nevermind that Iraqis are doing most of the dying and sustaining most of the damage to their economy; the "blame-the-Iraqis" crowd--y'know, the ones who keep saying "the Iraqis should be doing more of this and more of that"--need to keep these numbers in mind (Arabic): Total number of military personnel: 250,000 (in 14 Divisions) Total number of police: 450,000 Increase in weekly operations by Iraqi security forces since the Maliki government took over: 1000 percent Increase in number of patrols: 270 percent Increase in security spending in the 2008 budget: 26 percent

Nibras Kazimi notes the MSM is stating it will all fall apart as American troops redeploy to pre-surge levels noting the Sunnis are rearming and the Sadrists are fuming. However, he confidently states it will not fall apart. When asked if making Iraq a democracy was worth it, he states.

They certainly won't tell about the strategic and moral implications of a successful Iraq; a new Iraq saved from Saddam and on its way to becoming the closest approximation of Sweden in its neighborhood; a strong Iraq that may have to do all the dirty work of cleaning up a very messy Middle East so that you can heat your homes and go to cinemas without fearing that some zealot has left a ticking surprise for you; yeah, you can bet your ass it's worth it.

It is worth noting Mr. Kazimi predicted the Al Anbar tribes turning against Al Qaeda in early 2006, several months before they actually turned sides. It is also worth noting he predicted this turning would sweep across the country. Let's hope his latest prediction is also correct.

For a full read, click here.

Uncertainty Facing Iraq’s Awakening Movement Puts U.S. Strategy at Risk

From The Jamestown Foudnation.

As Iraq’s security situation deteriorates in the midst of resurgent violence, an increase in internal and external pressures facing the Awakening (Sahwa) Movement may jeopardize the prospects and goals set forth in the U.S. counter-insurgency strategy created by U.S. General David Petraeus. The formation of the Awakening Councils seemed a promising linchpin to the “surge” strategy, which has shown concrete signs of improving Iraq’s security sector. Though the rise of the Awakening movement contributed substantially in limiting al-Qaeda in Iraq in the short term, its forces face uncertain and problematic long-term challenges. If the dilemmas confronting the Awakening members continue to be marginalized by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government, Iraq’s improved security situation is likely to revert back to sectarianism and civil war-like conditions.

A very interesting article.

For a full read, click here.

Diary of an Insurgent In Retreat

From the Washington Post.

On Nov. 3, U.S. soldiers raided a safe house of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq near the northern city of Balad. Not a single combatant was captured, but inside the house they found something valuable: a diary and will written in neat Arabic script. "I am Abu Tariq, Emir of al-Layin and al-Mashadah Sector," it began. Over 16 pages, the al-Qaeda in Iraq leader detailed the organization's demise in his sector. He once had 600 men, but now his force was down to 20 or fewer, he wrote. They had lost weapons and allies. Abu Tariq focused his anger in particular on the Sunni fighters and tribesmen who have turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq and joined the U.S.-backed Sunni Sahwa, or "Awakening," forces.

Abu Tariq went from 600 to 20 Al Qaeda fighters in the October 2007 timeframe. According to the article, he was the religious emir of an area stretching from Taji to south of Balad. The area marks the center of the famous "Sunni Triangle" along the Tigris River Valley. More importantly,

He provided details of what appears to be one of the ways his group financed its activities -- buying and selling trucks and cars, which he called "spoils." He recorded incomplete transactions, including details of money still owed to his group.

Al Qaeda in Iraq, in the heart of the Sunni Triangle, has been decimated according to a diary from one of their own leaders who has now fled to Mosul. The diary speaks of desertions, dismantled battalions, and money woes of Al Qaeda in Iraq.

Al Qaeda in Iraq is on its last leg due to The Surge of US forces in Iraq. They have consolidated their forces in Mosul in the hopes of regrouping; however, they are encircled by Iraqi Security and US Forces. January 2007 was a time in which many members of the US Government and MSM were saying all hope for victory in Iraq was lost. Just one year later, the cards have completely turned and it now seems all hope is lost for Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda in general.

One wonders what Iraq and Al Qaeda would be like today if we had listened to defeatist forces in the US Government and the MSM and began the withdraw of forces last year instead of surging them.

For a full read, click here.

Iraq Awakening Councils members join police

From Alsumaria.

Loyalty for the country and casting away confessionalism are two headlines that constitute the key of joining in Awakening Councils to Iraq Security Forces. In fact, steps towards joining in Awakening Councils members to Iraqi forces are ongoing since US Army announced that 9 thousand members of (Sahwa) or Awakening Councils are ready to enter into police or army after inspecting their situation. Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, US military spokesman, told AFP that other Awakening Council members are waiting for the opportunities that would allow them to join in Iraq Security Forces.

Reconciliation continue daily in Iraq. More signs of progress. All is not perfect, but it is progressing.

For a full read, click here.

Attacks imperil U.S.-backed militias in Iraq

From International Herald Tribune.

American-backed Sunni militias who have fought Sunni extremists to a standstill in some of Iraq's bloodiest battlegrounds are being hit with a wave of assassinations and bomb attacks, threatening a fragile linchpin of the military's strategy to pacify the nation.

Al Qaeda is targeting "Awakening" groups.

Officials say that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has a two-pronged strategy: directing strikes against Awakening members to intimidate and punish them for cooperating with the Americans, and infiltrating the groups to glean intelligence and discredit the movement in the eyes of an already wary Shiite-led government. "Al Qaeda is trying to assassinate all the Awakening members that support the government, but I believe that criminal militias are also doing this," Bolani said during a recent interview in Taji.

For a full read, click here.

US must stay, says Iraq tribe fighting Al Qaeda

From the Khaleej Times.

An early pullout of US troops would spark a return of savage sectarian violence and be ”disastrous” for Iraq, a tribal leader fighting Al Qaeda in a province once fiercely anti-American told AFP. Sheikh Ahmed Abu Reesha, leader of the “Anbar Awakening” that has ended much of Al Qaeda’s hold over western Iraq, warned that improvements in the security situation would be lost if the United States withdrew troops.

He added,

“The province used to be a place for terrorists and criminals, but our strong co-operation with coalition forces and Iraqi security forces changed this. “We are pushing the wheel forward,” he said. “Schools and universities are back with full classes. We are now looking for companies from all over the world to come here and do business.”

For a full read, click here.