Gates: US endgame now close in Iraq

From Alsumaria.

While security forces are pursuing their fight against terrorism and outlaws, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates considered that the “endgame” is now close in Iraq stressing that withdrawal of US Forces will be carried out along a slow process. Yet, he warned of the costly consequences of an early pullout. Gates made the comments in a speech delivered to US special operations forces at their headquarters in Tampa, Florida, recalling the past failures when security was handed over to Iraqi forces before they were ready based on overly optimistic predictions that didn’t necessarily conform to reality. “We must be realistic about the challenges still facing Iraq: al Qaeda remains a lethal force always looking to metastasize and regenerate; armed militias still undermine the rule of law; and the government, while making great strides, still has a lot to learn about how to deliver basic services and security to its people,” he said.

The strategic goal in Iraq is a unified democratic federal Iraq that can govern itself, defend itself, and sustain itself, and is an ally in the War on Terror.

In order to be a unified democratic federal Iraq, it first and foremost must be secure. Security can be provided by US forces, but it is better provided by Iraqi forces. Iraqi forces have now proved they can enter and secure the three largest population centers in Iraq - Basra, Sadr City, and Mosul. In short, it can defend itself.

In order to be a unified democratic federal Iraq, it must provide basic services to its population. This capacity has been built up in Iraq since day one and is currently being built up to a greater extent in Iraq now that the security situation is improving. Security improvements will lead to providing essential services in a democracy. If it doesn't, leaders will not win re-election.

As military capacity and governance increases, Iraq will be able to sustain itself in due course. This is why we must be cautious of a rapid withdraw of US forces. The surge made great strides in Iraq, not only militarily, but also politically, economically, and informationally. A gradual withdraw will ensure these strides are not reverse, but in fact continue forward.

Iraq is proving it is an ally in the war on terror as it is the central front in the war on terror. Our two biggest enemies, Al Qaeda and Iran are being defeated and/or contained in the region. The democratically elected government in Iraq does not want to be controlled by Iran nor does it want to be subjected to the violence that Al Qaeda offers.

The National Command Authorities strategic objectives are close to being fully realized in Iraq. Once these strategic objectives cannot be compromised can we begin to withdraw forces from the region. Timetables have never worked in war or nation building. Benchmarks have been set and are being met, but Iraqis will meet them on their own timeline. Our operational mission as a military is to continue to push them towards accomplishment and assist with security so they can continue to pursue these benchmarks. Tactically, this comes down to defeating Al Qaeda and other militants in the region and assisting the government with providing essential services.

It has taken awhile in Iraq for all parties to come online to pursue the same strategic, operational, and tactical objective, but pursuing they are all doing now. With enemy's of these objectives in full retreat we will see rapid expansion and resolution of our, now combined, objectives.

Red Herring Fatwas

From Nibras Kazimi at the Talisman Gate.

So what happens if the western media can’t spin or sensationalize events in Iraq when not much is happening? Why, they make it up! The Associated Press put out a wire report yesterday hinting that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is about to declare jihad against the Americans. Whhhhhaaaaaat???

Mr Kazimi goes on to show how the AP misinterpreted Sistani's statements. Even more telling is this remark.

So let me pull rank here and tell you all that I’ve met Sistani. In fact, I sat in on an hours-long conversation between Sistani, his eldest son who runs his father’s daily affairs, Adil Abdul-Mahdi (Iraq’s current Vice-President) and Ahmad Chalabi. This happened in the early spring of 2004. It was an illuminating discussion that delved into law-making, the role of Islam, history, international relations and of course, gossip.

An interesting read indeed.

For a full read, click here.

Iran cleric blasts US-Iraqi military agreement

From Yahoo via AFP.

A senior Iranian cleric on Friday slammed as treachery to Islam a security accord due to be sealed between Baghdad and Washington on the presence of American troops in Iraq. This agreement shows that "Iraqi tribunals will not be able to judge American military personnel and employees of firms who work for the US military," Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said during weekly prayers in Tehran.

Khatami then went on to say.

"American forces will keep the ministries of defence, interior and intelligence under their supervision for 10 years... and will be able to have private jails in Iraq," he said. Khatami charged that the accord will allow US troops to launch attacks from Iraq "against any country that backs terrorist groups." "It is open-ended slavery. It is the worst humiliation. "Any hand that signs such an agreement will be considered by Iran as a traitor to Islam, to Shiism and to the Iraqi people," he added.

I find Khatami's statements interesting and telling.

Obviously, he is concerned that the US will have private jails in Iraq which will hold terrorists and supporters of terrorists. The US will be able to attack countries from Iraq which back terrorists and those countries will be humiliated by the US. Finally, if Iraq signs the upcoming SOFA agreement, Iran will consider Iraq a traitor to Iranian Shiism.

If this isn't considered a military, political, and diplomatic victory in Iraq, what is?

Iran will be and is becoming more contained every day and it does not quite frankly like it. It will have US forces on both its western and eastern borders. It will have aircraft carriers along it southern coast. Economic sanctions are having an impact on its country because it refuses to give up nuclear production and state support of terrorism in the region. Its one ally in the region is discussing a formal declaration of peace with Israel.

Again, it is extremely interesting how much different a year makes. The US is in a position of authority again in the region. We could have cut and run last year and lost much of our international clout and prestige, but President Bush decided to surge combat forces to the region. Now, almost one year later from the start of the surge, Iraq is mostly secure, Al Qaeda in Iraq is effectively defeated, the Mahdi Army is subdued, Israel and Syria are discussing a peace treaty, and Iran is feeling contained and alone.

We can argue all day about whether we should have gone into Iraq in 2003. But in 2008, it appears the Bush Doctrine is well on its way to solving many long standing situations in the Middle East.

For a full read, click here.

Iraqi Troops Welcomed In Sadr City

From the Washington Post.

Iraqi soldiers moved unhindered through Baghdad's vast Sadr City district on Wednesday as Shiite militiamen who have long controlled the area faded from view and schools and businesses began to reopen after weeks of strife. The Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is pursuing an increasingly successful effort to contain the militias of his Shiite rivals and to exercise authority over areas where Iraqi forces were once unwelcome. The strategy has won Maliki admiration from Sunni politicians and from U.S. and British officials, who credit him with exerting some of the political will necessary to achieve reconciliation.

Residents of Sadr City not only welcomed Iraqi Troops but gave them flowers and Korans. Iraqi troops have greatly increased in capacity in the last year thanks to the surge of US forces in the country. What does one Iraqi Soldier think?

Sayah said he was relieved that U.S. troops were not playing a central role in the operation, which would have provoked the militias. He said U.S. forces should leave Iraq. "I think it's time," he said. "The Iraqi army has proven itself."

Almost one year after the official start of the surge of US forces, the Iraqi Army now has the capacity to move into militia onclaves in Basra, Sadr City, and Mosul. Iraqi forces are now controlling their country. Al Qaeda is for all practical purposes defeated. Sadr's militia is standing down. Those elements which rise up against Iraqi forces are quickly killed or detained.

I agree with Sayah. I would now be appropriate to begin contemplating a slow and methodical withdraw of US forces from Iraq as capacity of Iraqi forces increases. Notice I did not say a withdraw of US forces should begin right now. But now, the US military is in a position to begin transitioning security more and more to Iraqi forces. As Iraqi forces prove they can maintain the peace in their country, US forces should begin to come home and not be replaced.

If we would have withdrawn one short year ago, trust in US forces in the Middle East would have been severely shakened. Now, one year later, having defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq and subdued Sadr's militia, US forces can begin a methodical withdraw knowing that the blood of over 4000 Soldiers has not been in vain. A vibrant democracy is taking hold in Iraq which is protected by a strong, robust Iraqi military.

For a full read, click here.

Commander: Al-Qaida in Iraq is at its weakest

From Yahoo via AP.

The al-Qaida terror group in Iraq appears to be at its weakest state since it gained an initial foothold in the aftermath of the U.S.-led invasion five years ago, the acting commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East said Wednesday in an Associated Press interview.

The story continues with,

"Our forces and the Iraqi forces have certainly disrupted al-Qaida, probably to a level that we haven't seen at any time in my experience," said Dempsey, who served in Iraq in the initial stages as a division commander and later as head of the military organization in charge of training Iraqi security forces.

LTG Dempsey was in Iraq in command of 1AD and later trained Iraqi Security Forces. He has seen their capacity grow to the extent that PM Maliki can now maneuver his forces into Basra and subdue Special Groups and Mahdi Army, maneuver his forces in Sadr City and make the Mahdi Army stand down, and finally his latest battle in Mosul where over 1000 insurgents were captured in less than a week.

For a full read, click here.

Iraqi Government Launches Operation to Expel al-Qaeda from Mosul

From The Jamestown Foundation.

After four days of a preparatory operation code-named Za’eer al-Asad (The Lion’s Roar), Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki arrived in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul to supervise a new military operation against al-Qaeda in Ninawa (Nineveh) province (al-Jazeera, May 14). Al-Maliki was accompanied by Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul Qadir al-Obaidi and a group of Iraqi military commanders. General Abdul Karim Khalaf, the spokesman of the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior, announced that Iraqi forces had started operation Umm al-Rabi’ain (The Mother of Two Springs) to chase al-Qaeda and the extremists affiliated with it out of Mosul. General Khalaf said “a second operation with the name Umm al-Rabi’ain (the nickname of Mosul, known for its long spring season) has started targeting those who committed crimes against Iraqi security forces and civilians in Mosul.”

Fadhil Ali goes on to state,

In fact, the major leaders of the insurgent groups appear to have left Mosul two months before the operation (Azzaman, May 17; Almalafpress.net, May 16). The repeated early announcements of the operations offered a chance for the insurgents to take precautions and move out of the region. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is known for avoiding major combat confrontations—its tactics rely mainly on fighting with small groups only. It is clear that the Iraqi government could not achieve a decisive victory with two quick military operations against al-Qaeda in Ninawa province.

However, Bill Roggio, at The Long War Journal quotes MND-N Commander, MG Hertling as stating,

Of those captured, "just under 200" Tier 1 and Tier 2 al Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq operatives have been detained, said Major General Mark Hertling, the commander of Multinational Division North said during a briefing on May 15. There have been some very big fishes caught," Hertling said. Tier 1 operatives are operational leaders. Tier 2 operatives are foreign fighters or weapons facilitators, bomb makers, and cell leaders

One article states key leaders fled prior to the battle. Another states just under 200 Tier 1 and 2 terrorists have been captured. Both articles quote a little over 1000 insurgents have been captured. I tend to believe the MND-N Commander, MG Hertling. 200 Tier 1 and 2 Al Qaeda members captured is indeed significant. Since this article, more Al Qaeda members have been captured.

Iraqi and US security forces continue to roll up al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq’s network in Mosul and great Ninewa province. The military said it captured an additional 56 “wanted men” during operations over the past two days. On May 16, the Iraqi military said it captured 1,068 suspects. The US military reported 11 additional al Qaeda fighters and leaders were captured over the weekend. On May 17, Iraqi and Coalition forces captured a weapons facilitator for senior al Qaeda leaders in Mosul. On May 18, Coalition special operations teams captured eight al Qaeda operatives. Today, Coalition special operations teams captured two al Qaeda operatives.

More importantly,

Few of those captured have been released at this time, according to the Iraqi military. Of the 1135 insurgents captured in Ninewa, only 151 have been released, a police source told Voices of Iraq.

Major operations are ongoing in Mosul. Significant high level terrorists have been captured, somewhere in the neighborhood of 200. 1153 insurgents have been captured in about a week. Only 151 have been released.

The significance of this operation is clear in and of itself. However, it is more significant when looked at strategically in conjunction with other operations ongoing. Iraqi forces have taken control of Basra and continue to pursue Special Groups and Mahdi forces in this region. Sadr signed a ceasefire and Iraqi troops are moving into the heart of Sadr City. Now Mosul is offering up over 1000 insurgents.

From 25 March 2008 to 20 May 2008, PM Maliki and his Iraqi Army cleared and secured the cities of Hillah, Najaf, Karbala, Diwaniyah, Amarah, Kut, and Nasiriyah. He then moved into Sadr City. After a peace intitiative signed by Sadr, the Iraqi Army is now moving wholesale into Sadr City to clear and secure it. Now PM Maliki's forces have captured 1153 insurgents in Mosul, of which about 200 are Tier 1 and Tier 2.

Say what you want, but PM Maliki is showing his muscle and the ability of the Iraqi Army to secure its country. His forces have assumed control of the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth largest cities in Iraq which are under contention (not counting Kurdish north). Major areas under contention (Basra, Sadr City, and Mosul) have fallen or are in the process of falling out of insurgent control.

Absolutely stunning, to say the least. In two months, his forces have taken down all major threats from the three groups challenging democracy in Iraq, Al Qaeda, Special Groups, and the Mahdi Army.

Yet, the MSM is not covering this unprecedented victory.