New Lebanon War?

From Amir Taheri.

IS Syria preparing to seize the opportunity provided by the global financial crisis and the US presidential campaign to invade Lebanon? For the last week or so, Syria has been moving heavily armed elite military units to the Lebanese border - with up to 25,000 massed there by early last week. Backed by tanks, armored vehicles and attack helicopters, the units were on "maximum war footing," eyewitnesses say. Damascus says the build-up is a response to smuggling rings that run the black market in the Syrian capital and major provincial centers. My Lebanese contacts call that explanation "laughable" - noting that Syrian elite itself runs the black market in both countries through the security services. The buildup covers only the northern portion of the Syria-Lebanon border, leaving the eastern portions in the hands of the Iran-financed (and thus Syria-allied) Hezbollah militia. And Lebanese analysts say the type of force Syria is massing is better suited for a classical invasion than for chasing small and scattered groups of bandits along the border.

What will EU or America do to prevent a possible invasion?

President Assad might well be tempted to remedy his humiliation in 2005, when he was forced to withdraw his army from Lebanon after 29 years of occupation. If so, he may well be eyeing a brief window of opportunity right now. America is preoccupied by the financial crisis and the presidential campaign. And Europe, led by Sarkozy, has just committed itself to rehabilitating Syria and doesn't want to jeopardize the supposed gains of its "positive dialogue" with Damascus. Turkey would be in no position to criticize a Syrian incursion into Lebanon - Turkish forces have repeatedly entered Iraq, ostensibly to hunt down Kurdish rebels. And Russia - grateful for Syria's support in the recent war with Georgia - wouldn't frown at a Syrian move to topple the pro-Western regime in Beirut. Israel, politically paralyzed and possibly heading for early elections, is in no position to oppose a Syrian invasion. So far, Syria's military gesticulations on the Lebanese border haven't elicited warnings from the United States or the European Union, encouraging the hard-line faction in Damascus that is pressing for a "return to Lebanon."

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