ANALYSIS: Elections in Iran - Referendum for changes

From Monsters and Critics.

After more than 30 months of the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranians will show in next week's parliamentary elections whether they still support the presidential course or rather vote for changes. The March 14 elections will, in effect, be a pro- or contra- Ahmadinejad referendum.

What are the chances for a anti-Ahmadinejad referendum? Rather large if one believes this analysis. Who is most likely to benefit from an anti-Ahmandinejad referendum?

The reformists have formed a coalition led by ex-presidents Khatami and Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani. Most of their candidates have, however, been disqualified for ideological reasons by the senate-like Guardian Council. So they have no top candidate, and would be more than happy to win even one-third of the seats.... Observers have, however, focused on the new conservative faction led by former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani. Last October he resigned from his post owing to differences with Ahmadinejad over the president's uncompromising nuclear policies. The new faction, also supported by Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, is loyal to the system, but unlike Ahmadinejad follows a more moderate course. 'The criteria of the voters have changed - the economic crisis has made the economy the main issue, and even political considerations tend towards that direction,'

March 14 parliamentary elections in Iran will be interesting to watch. Ex-presidents Khatami and Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani are not expected to win more than 1/3 of the available seats. Both of these parties started and continued Iran's nuclear enrichment programs. Ahmadinejad's party is also expected to go down in defeat due to concern over the economy while oil is at $100 per barrel. In addition, he contines nuclear enrichment.

Instead, a new faction, led by former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani is expected to win control of the parliament. It must be remembered that Larijani resigned as Ahmadinejad's chief negotiator due to differences in dealing with the EU and America over the nuclear issue. Larijani was willing to suspend enrichment for economic assistance. Ahmadinejad wasn't.

If Larijani's party assumes control of the Parliament, it will not only signal a defeat for the "old guard" in Iran, but may also signal a willingness for Iran to compromise over its nuclear enrichment. Russia and China for their part recently fully back tough sanctions against Iran signally their intentions to seek a more moderate Iranian Parliament and in the future, a president.

Diplomatically and economically, Iran is becoming increasingly isolated. Thanks to tough new sanctions, this isolation will increase. The US maintains the upper hand in negotiations as sanctions are now in full effect. For sanctions to be lifted or reduced, Larijani's party will have to show its willingness to not only suspend enrichment, but also to suspend support of Special Groups in Iraq. In addition, Iran's support of Hezbollah may also be in play.

Again, the outcome of 14 March parlimentary elections may very well mark a significant turning point in Iranian relations with the rest of the Middle East and America in general. It will be interesting to see the outcome.

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