Musharraf's dangerous liaisons

Olivier Guitta, writing for the Middle East Times comments on Musharraf's complicity in the Bhutto assassination.

Benazir Bhutto's recent assassination most likely by Islamist elements, most likely linked to the Taliban, is the latest proof of how central Pakistan is in the war against radical Islam. Bhutto's supporters were quick to blame Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf for her death. While it would be a stretch to see Musharraf's hand behind the plot, it is nonetheless clear that the president has some responsibility. First and foremost because of his dangerous liaisons with Islamists.

In another article for the Middle East Times, Mr. Guitta notes,

But the corps does not seriously fight the Taliban. Testimonies of Frontier Corps troops reveal that insurgents freely cross the border to fight the jihad in Afghanistan and return without hindrance. Furthermore, the populations house and feed them. Numerous locals actually join the underground. Also, Pakistani soldiers sometimes provide medical treatment when they return injured. Some Frontier Corps fighters say that the army could finish off the Taliban in one day if it wanted to, but that the military commanders do not give the order to do so. Instead, they tell the troops that killing locals would create problems all over the country.

I concur with Mr. Guitta's assessment to a certain extent. The Pakistani government and the ISI made the Taliban with the expressed objective of limiting disruptive warlord influence in Afghanistan. Musharraf did not reign in the Taliban upon seizing power in 1999 and in fact continued to support their efforts. One can understand why when looking at the geopolitical climate in Pakistan. In short, with Iran and Afghanistan to its west and India to it east, Pakistan was surrounded by countries wishing it harm from its perspective. The Taliban were created to fight an insurgency with Iran and Afghanistan while his Army was positioned in the Kashmir region to prevent Indian aggression. But one cannot look at a moment in time to understand the underlying political dynamics of a country or region. One must look over time to get a general sense of geopolitical dynamics.

The fact that the Taliban were able to seize control of Afghanistan in 1996 caused the Pakistani government to increase their support to the Taliban under Sharif. The Taliban had effectively eliminated one rival country and was causing all sorts of issues in Iran, effectively keeping this theocracy, and its influence at bay in the Balochistan region so Musharraf could mine the vast mineral wealth of this region and build a vast warm water port at Gwadar to increase commerce to/from Pakistan.

However, all this changed on 9/11. Shortly after attacks on the World Trade Center, Musharraf was visited by Mr. Armitage who gave him the ultimatum that he can either join the US in it fight against terror or go down with the terrorists. For his part, Musharraf begin to assist the US.

However, one cannot change a country's political climate overnight. I also do not believe the Frontiers Corps can finish off the Taliban in one day as expressed for several reasons.

First and foremost, Alexander tried for several years to militarily defeat the Pushtan tribes in this region only to later negotiate a truce with them. So too did the British many years later. After waging a battle in this region from 2002 to 2006, Musharraf, like generals before him, negotiated a truce in the hopes of establishing neutrality in this region. However, this truce failed.

Secondly, since Pakistan created the Taliban, it would be hard to destroy them since they are part and parcel of the Pakistani government. It takes time to change attitudes within a government. While it can be argued that Masharraf could have cleaned house in the Army immediately after 9/11, this purge would have caused the Army to fracture, leaving Pakistan vulnerable to attacks from the Taliban internally, or Iran and India externally.

One thing he could do was to slowly but surely reduce their influence. He has/had three methods to accomplish this feat. First, he began a military campaign against the Taliban from 2002 through 2006 in the hope of weakening them to such an extent that their influence would be limited to the FATA and NWFP regions. Arguably, this worked to a certain extent until he negotiated a cease fire in all these regions and they began to reconstitute their forces. Being resentful of the last four years of war, the Taliban begin to look inward to Pakistan.

Secondly, he could control who makes rank in the Army. By slowly passing over pro-Taliban officers in his Army, he could diminish their influence. His appointment of General Kayani to succeed him as Commander of the Army is one example of this change. General Kayani, for his part, immediately changed out several higher officers in the Army and has recently told the Army to stay out of politics.

Another method Musharraf has pursued is to transition his country towards democracy. His first effort at this increased Islamists in the government in which the MMA was able to get 11% of the vote in 2002, the third highest. One can understand Musharraf's apprehension in using democracy to bring Pakistan into the modern age and help him to destroy the Taliban given their popularity both with the people and in the government.

However, with the Taliban's recent internal attacks, especially the Bhutto assassination, Musharraf may now have the opportunity to deal decisively with the Taliban as their support wains. Better relations with India has allowed him to pull tens of thousands of troop from Kashmir to the FATA and NWFP regions. Appointment of General Kayani, a pro-western and apolitical leader will allow Musharraf to go after the Taliban with assistance from the United States. However, nothing can be started until the elections are over on 18 February. At this time, we will see a concerted effort against the Taliban, either by Musharraf in conjunction with a coalition of the PPP or PML-N or by the Army itself if the PPP and/or PML-N forces Musharraf out of office.

Either way, we will have to wait until after 18 February to see which direction Pakistan goes.