Militants make a claim for talks

From Syed Saleem Shahzad writing for the Asia Times Online.

The capture by militants of a fort in Pakistan near the Afghan border is not just another isolated incident in the volatile region. It represents a concerted fightback by al-Qaeda to derail any peace initiatives unless the group itself is directly engaged, rather than local resistance leaders.

Mr. Shahzad notes this was in response to a,

Pakistani Taliban shura (council) headed by Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan responded positively to a government offer of a ceasefire, despite opposition from Takfiri elements who view non-practicing Muslims as infidels.

In addition, he infers,

This response is orchestrated by al-Qaeda from its camps around the town of Mir Ali in North Waziristan. Al-Qaeda views any peace agreements with the Pakistani Taliban as a government maneuver to split the militants, and also says Islamabad has been consistently intransigent over the years. Al-Qaeda demands that it be the chief interlocutor in any peace talks, and it has set its bottom line: guarantees of the withdrawal of all security forces from the tribal areas; enforcement of sharia law, the release of Maulana Abdul Aziz of the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque), who was apprehended last year; and that President Pervez Musharraf step down.

I have documented the split among Taliban and Al Qaeda's hostile take over of the Taliban before in this blog. Mr. Shahzad continues with,

Al-Qaeda believes it has sufficiently changed the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan and that the first regional dialogue with al-Qaeda - involving Britain, the United States and Pakistan - will start in South Asia. Indeed, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, in audio and video messages last year, surprised many when he urged the West for dialogue. Of course, this was not a straight-forward offer of an olive branch, but an indication that al-Qaeda aims to be the main negotiator of Muslim issues, rather than local groups such as the Taliban, Iraqi tribes and Hamas in Palestine.

For a full read of Mr. Shahzad article, click here.

It is important for all to understand that Al Qaeda is reconstituted in the FATA and NWFP regions of Pakistan and now believes it has sufficient forces to bring the battle to the Pakistani settled regions which it has done already with Bhutto's assassination and several bombings.

Currently, Musharraf and General Kayani are massing forces in both the FATA and NWFP regions but not engaging in major combat until after the 18 February elections. Al Qaeda understands this fact and is doing all it can to prevent elections or kill Musharraf's rivals to further weaken his power, portraying to Pakistanis that Musharraf is stopping the elections to remain in power.

Expect the week proceeding the elections in Pakistan to be punctuated by several bombings in the settled areas.

However, like in Iraq, Al Qaeda cannot stop the elections. It will begin killing more and more fellow Muslims much like it did in Iraq. This will cause a backlash against Al Qaeda, but this time, the backlash will be in its last remaining stronghold. However, unlike in Iraq, the split is already present, so the backlash against Al Qaeda will be much swifter than it was in Iraq. Also, unlike Iraq, the Pakistani government and military are firmly established. Finally, there does not exist the decisive ethnic rivalries that exist in Iraq today due to three decades of suppression among Shiites.

2008 is shaping up to be a violent year in Pakistan. However, power sharing agreements between the PPP and Musharraf will signal a unified, democratically elected front against Al Qaeda and transition Pakistan to a freely elected democracy.

Try as it might, Al Qaeda cannot battle against this ideal. It will fight hard. It will slaughter many innocent people. But it will ultimately be defeated in Pakistan just like it has in Iraq. During the spring of next year, Al Qaeda's efforts will be focused in Pakistan and will need its fighters concentrated in this region. Afghanistan next year will be tame compared to this year and Iraq will be further on its way to a strong, vibrant democracy.

The only possible way to turn the tide is to assassinate General Kayani and Musharraf which is why Al Qaeda has already targeted these two for assassination.