Mehsud warns of strong retaliation

From The Nation.

The Nation has an interesting article. It starts with Baitullah Mehsud.

Baitullah Mehsud, the militant commander, spearheading insurgency in South Waziristan Agency, has asked the armed forces to immediately stop, what he said, targeting the civilian population, or else be ready to face dire consequences.

While his forces have overran two forts, which were subsequently taken back by Pakistani forces, he warns of "dire consequences" if attacks continue. What specifically is he talking about?

Baitullah Mehsud also accused security forces of being involved in disgracing the tribesmen.... Security forces have intensified their operation against militants in the area after the various forts and government installations were attacked by the warring forces. During the military action, a large number of houses have been razed to ground. Meanwhile, due to closure of roads, there is acute shortage of wheat flour, fuel and other items of daily use in the area.

Now, we see it. Since General Kayani's assignment as Chief of Staff of the Army, he has used more forceful methods against lawlessness in the FATA and NWFP regions. But key words here are important.

1. Disgracing tribesmen: This region has always been ruled by tribes and has never been conquered, neither by Alexander the Great nor Great Britain. Instead of conquering these people, both leaders decided in the end to pay tribal leaders to keep the peace. Are General Kayani's tactics bringing shame on tribal leaders due to razing of homes and the inability of tribal leaders to ensure the supply of flour, fuel, and other daily use items? But it appears that General Kayani is allowing the tribal leaders to save face.

Pakistan army has ruled out possibility of grand operation against Mehsud tribe in Waziristan. Talking to a private TV channel, DG ISPR Major-General Athar Abbas also ruled out the deployment of tanks in the area. He said that Pakistan forces take action whenever attack is carried out on the forces or against the civilians.

So we have Mehsud accusing the government of Pakistan and the government of Pakistan accusing Mehsud. In steps the US military.

“Nonetheless, the level of cooperation, particularly in recent months, between the Pakistani military, Afghan military, and ourselves, has resulted in significant success,” he pointed out. US Admiral Fallon said the Pakistan military’s response to the instabilities that resulted in the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) incident and these tragic bombings had caused the government to realise that they “have a significant threat.”

Admiral Fallon cites the increased cooperation between the US military and Pakistan in recent months. Could this be what Mehsud is talking about? If the Pakistani Army on the ground is being aided by American intelligence, then there is the possibility of General Kayani's forces of quelling the tribes in the region, something both Alexander the Great and Great Britain were never able to do. Commenting on this fact, Admiral Fallon states,

“And they have now moved their regular military forces into parts of this area (FATA) in an attempt to put pressure on the insurgents,” the top military official said. “I think the insurgents now are faced with the challenge of not only having us in the west on the Afghan side, working with the afghan security forces, but now they have got the Pakistan military squeezing them on the right,” Admiral Fallon said.

Iraq was ungovernable unless a evil force such as Saddam was around to quell the divergent cultures. This premise was proved wrong. The Soviets got mired in Afghanistan as has several other occupiers. However, America is not mired in Afghanistan. Alexander the Great nor Great Britain could subdue the tribal leaders in the FATA region. Can America?

The lesson here is America will not try to subdue the tribal leaders. This distinction is where all others have failed and America will succeed. We do not invade countries to occupy them. We invade countries to ensure our security by promoting democracry. Once established, we pull out when ASKED. This fact is the key.

Democracy is a great thing. All people want it. Most do not know how to get it. In ancient times, conquests were the norm. However, the US does not wish to counquer these regions in Pakistan. We just ask that they do not allow terrorist a safe haven to train in their areas whic will lead to an eventual attack on America.

For Mehsud to come out and say Pakistan has disgraced tribal leaders, is another way of saying he is getting pressure from tribal leaders to quit the fight. Tribal leaders can deal with a capitalistic America. It is after all, what they are all about.

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