A look into Pakistan's political future

Asia Times Online has text of an interview with Dr Hassan Abbas [1], a research fellow at the Belfer Center's Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program, Harvard University, and a former Pakistani government official who served in the administrations of prime minister Benazir Bhutto and President Pervez Musharraf. Some quotes follow about the upcoming elections in Pakistan.

In free and fair elections, at the national level (272 direct seats), the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) [of assassinated former premier Benazir Bhutto] will win [a majority of seats] - around 140 or so and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) of Nawaz Sharif will get the second highest number of seats, around 50-60. The PML-Q [king's party aligned with President Pervez Musharraf] will manage some seats in Punjab province - 25 at the most - but overall will be routed.

A quote about the future of the PPP without Bhutto.

The PPP is faced with a daunting task to remain united and this challenge will become acute after the election victory. A lot depends on Asif Zardari [Bhutto's husband], the new leader, as Bilawal Bhutto is too young and he will not be involved in the election process at all. Asif Zardari served a lot of time in jail in the past [12 out of the past 17 years] without being convicted - so there is sympathy for him in the PPP also. Secondly, he is a sharp political strategist and understands the political dynamics of the country quite well. In terms of "politics as usual" the major political forces have learnt a lot in the last few years and hopefully will not repeat past mistakes. Religious extremism and dictatorship has damaged the social fabric of Pakistan hugely and the political leadership will have to begin from the scratch.

A daunting task indeed is in the future for the PPP. However, a marriage of convenience may still be able to take place between the PPP's Zardari and Musharraf as they establish a common goal, namely Al Qaeda's and the Taliban's defeat.

If the outcome is as stated as above, the PPP may decide to form a coalition with the PML-Q vice the PML-N as the PML-N is more acquiescent to Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The newly assigned head of the Pakistani military, General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, is also anti-Al Qaeda/Taliban and pro-Western possibly signaling Musharraf's overall intentions which allowed Bhutto to come back and engage in elections while preventing Sharif from holding office.

The future of Pakistan is interesting, but the cards seem to be falling upon a democratically elected government that is pro-Western, anti-Al Qaeda, that will be able to work with its neighbors better than Musharraf could. Working with its neighbors while at the same time working to diminish Al Qaeda's/Taliban's influence in not only Pakistan, but the region.

All these leaders, Musharraf, Zardari, and General Kiani will have to wait until after the elections to begin any serious push against Al Qaeda as none of them want to alienate any voters at this time. Once elections have happened, the weather has warmed, and coalitions have formed, we may very well see a united front against Al Qaeda.