The Big Winners

Richard Baehr has done some great analysis regarding the winners and losers in Iowa.

There were three winners in Iowa last night: Mike Huckabee, Barack Obama, and John McCain. The race in both parties has now changed, with the path to the nomination clearer on the Democratic side than the Republican.

For the Democrats

Barack Obama won decisively, by 8% over Edwards and 9% over Clinton. Voters under age 30 made up a fifth of the Democratic caucus voters and they gave over 50% of their votes to Obama. This has to make GOP strategists nervous about the general election if Obama is the nominee. Young voters are often not picked up in polling surveys, since many only use cell phones. Traditional election models may be useless if Obama is the Democratic Party nominee.

Regarding Clinton's inevitability.

Can Clinton recover? She has lots of money, and an infrastructure in place in many states. But her strength was the sense of inevitability about her winning, and her claim of long and meaningful experience. Neither was enough to win in Iowa. In Iowa, Clinton benefited from a strong race by John Edwards, which served to dilute the anyone but Clinton vote. Edwards does not have the money that Obama and Clinton have, and will likely be gone after South Carolina. His obsession with the Presidency will have to wait until 2012, assuming the GOP wins next year, or 2016 if they do not.

Regarding Obama.

Running against Obama is very tricky. It is hard to run against hope and unity, and breaking the color line and all that symbolizes. Yes, Obama is inexperienced. His instincts on dealing with the threat of Islamic jihadists suggests naïvete. They do not want to sit down and talk with us, not even him. But it may not matter. Obama is connecting with Democrats, independents, and some Republicans. After the bitterness of the Clinton and Bush years, he is an analgesic, a fresh face, promising better times and a more peaceful politics. The Republicans may rue the day Obama won Iowa, since Clinton would be a far easier candidate to run against.

For the Republicans

Could Mike Huckabee actually win the nomination? I think he could, though his road to victory is much more difficult than Obama's. Huckabee will likely get a boost in New Hampshire from his big Iowa win (9% over Romney), but it is hard to see him following up the Iowa victory with one in New Hampshire. More likely, he finishes third in the Granite State, unless Romney's support collapses there and Huckabee places second.

What about McCain?

John McCain, who will finish in an approximate tie for third in Iowa with Fred Thompson, is in very good shape to win New Hampshire against Romney's damaged campaign. McCain was already ahead in New Hampshire, and his showing in Iowa was quite respectable given how little time he spent there. Within days, the national polls will show Huckabee and McCain running one two in that order or the reverse order.

Is this then a McCain-Obama race?

McCain would be a favorite against Clinton and 50-50 at best against Obama, unless the Obama glow wears off by then. An Obama-McCain race would feature huge contrasts: age difference, experience, maturity, positions on the Iraq war. McCain is close to the center, and can appeal to independents, like Obama. Their race, if it comes to this, would likely turn on whether foreign threats trumped the domestic agenda. At this point, more people want to talk about healthcare, the economy, the housing slump, than Iraq or Afghanistan or Al Qaeda. That works to Obama's favor.

Richard Baehr ends with this interesting note.

In the last 3 elections the winner in November also won Iowa. Last night might make it four in a row.