The Battle of Diyala

A close examinaton of MNF-I Press Releases will give one a sense of where the battle against Al Qaeda in Iraq is currently focused. And that focus is in the Diyala Province where it is reported that the remaining 25% of Al Qaeda is holding out. Al Qaeda is attacking Coalition forces and civilians in this area. First MNF-I reports,

Two Multi-National Division – North Soldiers were killed in a small-arms fire attack while conducting operations in Diyala province Jan. 3. Additionally, one more MND-N Soldier was injured in the attack and evacuated to a Coalition Forces’ hospital.

A further MNF-I report states

Coalition forces killed seven terrorists today during operations targeting al-Qaeda in Muqdadiyah. Coalition forces targeted associates of an al-Qaeda in Iraq leader allegedly responsible for coordinating and directing a large terrorist group, and carrying out executions in the Diyala River Valley region. Intelligence reports indicate the group killed at least two people execution style in the last few days and has engaged with Coalition forces on multiple occasions. This operation follows several weeks of coordinated raids against this group by Coalition forces.

Another MNF-I press release states,

Coalition forces killed two terrorists and detained 12 suspects today during operations targeting al-Qaeda in central and northern Iraq. Coalition forces conducted two coordinated operations north of Muqdadiyah targeting associates of the al-Qaeda in Iraq network operating in the northeast Diyala River Valley region. The targeted individuals are associated with the leader allegedly responsible for directing a large terrorist group that conducts executions in the region. Intelligence reports indicate the group recently executed two people and has been engaged in numerous fire fights with Coalition forces over the last few weeks.

This same press release also states,

Southwest of Kifri, Coalition forces captured an alleged Ansar al Sunna leader for the network operating in the Diyala region. The wanted individual is allegedly responsible for numerous attacks against Coalition forces. Reports also indicate the suspect was previously injured during an Iraq forces operation, and he allegedly escaped from the hospital with the help of other terrorists, killing five Iraqi policemen during the escape. Farther north in Mosul, Coalition forces detained five suspects while targeting an alleged al-Qaeda in Iraq leader involved in weapons facilitation and kidnapping operations.

And finally, AFP is reporting,

The Iraqi army ordered an indefinite ban on vehicle traffic from Friday morning across Diyala province, north of the capital, one of the most dangerous areas of the country. "Owing to the bad security situation in Diyala province, the Diyala operations command will impose an indefinite vehicle curfew on Friday all over the province from the morning," provincial military operations chief Brigadier General Raghib al-Omeiri announced in a statement late Thursday. The provincial capital Baquba has been hit by a spate of shootings, suicide attacks and roadside bombings in recent days. US assistant commander in chief for northern Iraq Brigadier General James Boozer told a news conference on Wednesday that the Diyala towns of Baquba and Muqdadiyah were the key areas of violence in Iraq, along with the main northern city of Mosul.

As reported in this blog before,

Operation Iron Hammer activities stopped just south of Muqdadiyah and was followed up on with Operation Iron Reaper after newly acquired intelligence changed the focus of the operation. Iron Reaper involved four U.S. brigades participated in Operation Iron Reaper, along with three Iraqi Army divisions, likely the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th IA. Operation Iron Reaper targeted the Khalis Corridor in Western Diyala province, certain pockets in Salah ad Din province and the Za'ab Triangle and Western Mosul in Ninawa province. However, neither operation pursued Al Qaeda north of Muqdadiyah, where Al Qaeda has established a base of operations in the lake in the Kanaqin district of the Diyala province. It appears now that Coalition Forces (typically Special Forces since the unit is not named) as part of MND-N are now beginning to execute operations north of Muqdadiyah in the Diyala river valley to close in on Al Qaeda last remaining stronghold. In addition, MND-N forces are continuing to move north up the Khalis corridor to rout out Al Qaeda remenants in this region.

Taking all these press releases/reports together and reading Bill Roggio's report on this area, it would seem that MND-N is beginning an offensive into the Al Qaeda's safe havens from the lake in the Kanaqin district of the Diyala province along the Hamrin Ridge.

In one of the reports above, it is noted, "Southwest of Kifri, Coalition forces captured an alleged Ansar al Sunna leader for the network operating in the Diyala region." Kifri is a town about 50 miles north of Muqdadiyah, just southeast of Sulayman Beg, but more importantly east of the Hamrin Ridge, a suspected Al Qaeda in Iraq safe haven along with the lake in the Kanaqin district. Since the report does not list a unit, but instead states, "Coalition forces", it is suspected that Special Forces are operating in this region, in Al Qaeda's rear areas.

Take the suspected beginning of an offensive from Muqdadiyah to Bajii to the east over the Hamrin Ridge coupled with the fact of a vehicle ban in the Diyala province north of Baqaba (regardless of the stated reason), and Special Forces operating to the east of the Hamrin Ridge in Kifri, and we start to see a classic envelopment taking place against Al Qaeda forces in this region. Shaping operations for the upcoming battle are fully underway. The vehicle ban will make it easier to spot Al Qaeda forces repositioning or attempting to withdraw. Special Forces to the north of Muqdadiyah will only allow Al Qaeda two options, stay and fight or withdraw to Kanaqin along the Iranina border; thereby losing more ground and a crucial line of communication to Baghdad.

If Coalition Forces can secure the lake in the Kanaqin district, Al Qaeda's flank will be exposed along the Hamrin Ridge. Isolated on this ridge, Al Qaeda becomes easy pickings for manned or unmanned aircraft.

The stage is set; it is not only a matter of time until the decisive operations to defeat Al Qaeda in this region is undertaken. Given the vehicle ban, it may have already began.