US beefs up Pakistan force

The Australian is reporting,

US Special Forces are to increase their presence in Pakistan amid assessments that the country is to become the central battlefield for al-Qa'ida as it is driven from Iraq.

It must be noted that while this article is posted as of 28 Dec 07, it appears to have been written before Bhutto's assassination as it talks about beefing up security around her during her stadium rally. This fact makes this article interesting when also taken together with these article from the American Thinker here and here. Further in The Australian article, it states,

The Washington reports reflected Pentagon frustration with the Pakistani counter-insurgency effort, and said the head of the US Special Operations Command, Admiral Eric T. Olson, had made a series of visits to the country for discussions with senior military leaders. "The first US (Special Forces) personnel could be on the ground in Pakistan early in the new year", according to the reports. US Central Command chief Admiral William Fallon said the US forces would provide training and mentoring based on the US experience with the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Now lets tie some things together here.

1. Al Qaeda is on the ropes in Iraq and Afghanistan. In response, it is pulling jihdists intended for Iraq to surge efforts in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the second half of 2007. The best it has done is cause massive Taliban deaths Afganistan as these forces have attempted mass attacks against ANA and Coalition forces.

2. Al Qaeda is attempting a hostile take over of the Taliban by younger, non-Afghanistani commanders as older Taliban commanders are beginning to look for inclusion into Afghanistani politics.

3. Al Qaeda is attempting a hostile take over of Pakistani Taliban to expand its influence and territory in Pakistan and because of rifts between the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda. One of these missions caused the death of many Uzbeks in the Tora Bora region in August of 2007.

4. Pakistani security forces take over the Red Mosque and kill its leader and several other militants.

5. Musharraf declares emergency rule, and during this time moves tens of thousands of troops from Kashmir to the FATA region and begins going after Al Qaeda and Taliban in Swat and other FATA regions. He obviously is more concerned about his northwestern region than he is about his border with India.

6. Now US Special Forces wll begin operating in Pakistan to "train and mentor" Pakistani forces on the counter-insurgency fight.

Does the Pakistan Military need "training and mentoring" or does it need US Special Forces to secretly target Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders with sophisticated US weaponry from Predator drones and American aircraft as Pakistani forces continue to push into FATA regions and Swat?

Given all the linkages above and Al Qaeda recent assassination of Bhutto, I would speculate that Musharraf can now begin to use American forces inside Pakistan to battle the Al Qaeda and, to a lessor extent, the foreign Taliban without major unrest from the population as they are now focused on Bhutto's assassination and bringing to justice those responsible.

The bullet which struck Bhutto, may very well be the first shot fired causing the eventual destruction of Al Qaeda and foreign Taliban within Pakistan. If true, having lost its unassailable base, Al Qaeda will be powerless to influence Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in 2008 and a major strategic victory in the Long War will have been won with most of the MSM is caught wondering how it all fell apart for Al Qaeda so rapidly when just one year ago all thought the War on Terror was lost and we must begin bringing troops home.

2008 will definitely be the year to keep an eye on developments inside Pakistan. As Pakistan goes, so goes Afghanistan and possibly Iraq. Al Qaeda has made a bold move in assassinating Bhutto, but if the above linkages are correct, the bullet that struck and killed Bhutto will ricochet and mortally wound the person who started all this carnage on 9/11.

Given the timing of the eventual distruction of Al Qaeda in the FATA region, US and Coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and possibly Pakistani forces in southern Pakistan may very well be postured to diminish the threats of another adversary in the region -- Iran.

For all the tactical and operational setbacks in the Long War, the stars have started to align for victory in Iraq, defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and destruction of Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Terrorist groups, like the PKK, are being dealt a significant blow in northeastern Iraq by Turkish forces. If all events unfold around summer of 2008, Tehran will be in a precarious position indeed having seen its Shia Cresent in 2007 reaching from Iran to Lebanon collapse in a short matter of months as forces surround its country signalling it to back down or suffer the same fate as the forces it was just recently helping to kill and main US and Coalition forces in the region. So too will Al Qaeda wonder how such a tragedy befell it.

2008 wll definitely be a year to watch.