Shiite Contest Sharpens In Iraq
WoPo's Sudarsan Raghavan is reporting today of the power struggles happening in Southern Iraq between the Supreme Council and Sadr's Mahdi Army.
Where the reporter starts going off the mark is when he states that the Supreme Council is the "Bush administration's main Shiite ally". This is not true.
The Supreme Council, with its militant wing called the BADR corp, the Sadr Movement with its militant wing called the Mahdi Army, and the Dawa Party were the major parties which made up the United Iraqi Alliance List which received 41% (128 of the 275 available seats) of the vote in the December 2005 Iraqi elections. Sadr, not wanting to see Hakim (the Supreme Council's leader) come into power as the Prime Minister gave his portion of votes (30 of 128) to Maliki, from the Dawa Party in exchange for heading certain Ministries. If anything, the US is supporing the elected Prime Minister of Iraq, Maliki, who is from the Dawa Party.
Given the fact that the Mahdi Army has until recently opposed US forces in Iraq and his forces have directly engaged and attacked US and Iraqi forces and civilians, the US is not supportive of Sadr or his militia. However, since his militia has been told to stand down, US forces are only going after its rogue elements, usually with support from Sadr himself as he is attempting to eliminate rogue elements.
Similarly, the Supreme Council wants to see Iraq broken into three parts and has Iranian backing. Again, this is not inline with the US position.
Maliki for his part, has sent his President, Talabani, and Vice President, al-Hashimi to the Kurdish north where a "memorandum of understanding" with Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party. These groups represent about 42% of the Iraqi electorate. A union of these parties with Maliki's Dawa Party can possibly reshage the internal dynamics of Iraqi politics while keep the three major players in power.
Maliki, who is beholden to Sadr for his 30 seats, would no longer be beholdened to Sadr to remain in power. In addition, he would not be beholdened to the Supreme Council who has ties with Iran and is seeking to divide Iraq into three parts. Finally, he would gain by having strong militias which he could use as needed (from the Kurds and Sunnis).
President Talabani, from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Barzani's, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, would gain from the union by having a larger voice in implementation of the New Oil Law and Kirkuk Referendum.
Vice President, al-Hashimi, a Sunni from the Iraqi Accord Front would gain by giving his minority Sunnis are larger voice in the political arena and be able to better influence the National Reconcilitation law and possibly allowing more Awakening or CLC groups into the Iraqi Security Force structure.
The coalition Maliki is attempting to foster would leave both the Supreme Council and Sadr movement without much power and quite frankly would be better postured to pass needed laws to move the country forward, be better representative of all pro-Iraqi groups, and ensure that these people stay in power after the 2009 elections.
For the time being, Maliki is letting the Supreme Council and Sadr Movement duke it out in the south while he builds a truly Iraqi, secular coalition to get needed laws passed.
This dynamic is what is truly happening on the ground in Iraq. Not only is Sadr being sidelined, but so is the Supreme Council. Both organizations are only out to better themselves and not the Iraqi people as a whole.
This new Coalition will have a majority in Parliment, represent all parties, Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds, and be able to pass and enact laws to better all these parties so they remain in power after the upcoming 2009 elections. If this coalition succeeds, it will represent the success of a capitalist democracy very similar to operations to our own democracy.
| The arrests of Sadr's loyalists are part of a broader power struggle between the two most powerful Shiite factions seeking to lead Iraq: the Sadrists, who are pushing for U.S. troops to withdraw, and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the Bush administration's main Shiite ally. Given the nation's majority-Shiite population, this intensifying confrontation could play a major role in deciding Iraq's future. |
The Supreme Council, with its militant wing called the BADR corp, the Sadr Movement with its militant wing called the Mahdi Army, and the Dawa Party were the major parties which made up the United Iraqi Alliance List which received 41% (128 of the 275 available seats) of the vote in the December 2005 Iraqi elections. Sadr, not wanting to see Hakim (the Supreme Council's leader) come into power as the Prime Minister gave his portion of votes (30 of 128) to Maliki, from the Dawa Party in exchange for heading certain Ministries. If anything, the US is supporing the elected Prime Minister of Iraq, Maliki, who is from the Dawa Party.
Given the fact that the Mahdi Army has until recently opposed US forces in Iraq and his forces have directly engaged and attacked US and Iraqi forces and civilians, the US is not supportive of Sadr or his militia. However, since his militia has been told to stand down, US forces are only going after its rogue elements, usually with support from Sadr himself as he is attempting to eliminate rogue elements.
Similarly, the Supreme Council wants to see Iraq broken into three parts and has Iranian backing. Again, this is not inline with the US position.
Maliki for his part, has sent his President, Talabani, and Vice President, al-Hashimi to the Kurdish north where a "memorandum of understanding" with Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party. These groups represent about 42% of the Iraqi electorate. A union of these parties with Maliki's Dawa Party can possibly reshage the internal dynamics of Iraqi politics while keep the three major players in power.
Maliki, who is beholden to Sadr for his 30 seats, would no longer be beholdened to Sadr to remain in power. In addition, he would not be beholdened to the Supreme Council who has ties with Iran and is seeking to divide Iraq into three parts. Finally, he would gain by having strong militias which he could use as needed (from the Kurds and Sunnis).
President Talabani, from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Barzani's, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, would gain from the union by having a larger voice in implementation of the New Oil Law and Kirkuk Referendum.
Vice President, al-Hashimi, a Sunni from the Iraqi Accord Front would gain by giving his minority Sunnis are larger voice in the political arena and be able to better influence the National Reconcilitation law and possibly allowing more Awakening or CLC groups into the Iraqi Security Force structure.
The coalition Maliki is attempting to foster would leave both the Supreme Council and Sadr movement without much power and quite frankly would be better postured to pass needed laws to move the country forward, be better representative of all pro-Iraqi groups, and ensure that these people stay in power after the 2009 elections.
For the time being, Maliki is letting the Supreme Council and Sadr Movement duke it out in the south while he builds a truly Iraqi, secular coalition to get needed laws passed.
This dynamic is what is truly happening on the ground in Iraq. Not only is Sadr being sidelined, but so is the Supreme Council. Both organizations are only out to better themselves and not the Iraqi people as a whole.
This new Coalition will have a majority in Parliment, represent all parties, Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds, and be able to pass and enact laws to better all these parties so they remain in power after the upcoming 2009 elections. If this coalition succeeds, it will represent the success of a capitalist democracy very similar to operations to our own democracy.
posted by Lieutenant Colonel Caveman at Thursday, December 27, 2007
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