Al Qaeda establishes "a haven in Diyala"

Bill Roggio from The Long War Journal states that Al Aqeda has established "a haven in diyala,

With al Qaeda in Iraq's bases of operations dismantled in the central Baghdad regions, Diyala province has emerged as the primary battleground between Iraqi and Coalition forces and the terror group.... In the region northeast of Miqdadiyah, al Qaeda in Iraq has gains some traction.

Being more specific,

Al Qaeda in Iraq has expanded its influence around the lake in Khanaqin district, just northeast of Miqdadiyah and Baqubah. From these regions, Al Qaeda also controls some small pockets in rural areas southeast and northwest of the lake.

In order to maintain controll of this area,

Al Qaeda in Iraq has staged suicide car bomb attacks, established false checkpoints, and attacked Concerned Local Citizen groups and Diyala's Awakening movement from these bases.

If one looks at the map from The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Bill Roggio is talking about, it clearly details a few things.

1. First and foremost, the Areas of Operation and Influence which Al Qaeda in Iraq now possesses/controls are significantly less than a year ago thanks to The Surge, Awakening/CLC movements, and Iraqi Security Forces.

2. General Petreous' plan to secure Baghdad and its belts appears to have succeeded rather well. Stronger Iraqi Security Forces are not only able to hold ground gained by U.S. Forces, but are actually in the lead in several operations of taking ground and definitely on the offensive in many areas they are holding ground in.

3. The bulk of remaining 25% of Al Qaeda left in Iraq has withdrawn to reconstitutes its forces around the lake in Khanaqin district. While a drawdown of U.S. Forces is already starting to occur, so is the territory that Al Qaeda controls. This should allow MND-N forces to focus their energy in this region to defeat the remaining 25% of Al Qaeda forces still fighting in Iraq.

4. Al Qaeda is unable to mount successful attacks against U.S. (and to a large estent Iraqi) Forces. Therefore, Al Qaeda's only remaining tactics, which involves attacks against innocent civilians (suicide bombs and illegal checkpoints) will only hurt their cause as they further alienate their popular base. These attacks are their only way to regain territory they have lost since they no longer have the support of the populous. This puts Al Qaeda in a Catch-22 where they are damned if they don't and damned if they do. Not a good position to be in during a war.

5. Attacks on CLC Checkpoints will produce more, not less CLC/Awakening Groups. CLCs are not faceless, national entities like the Iraqi Army. These groups are the sons of local towns people trying to make their town secure. Attacks like these will cause local tribes to further join CLCs/Awakening movements and work actively against Al Qaeda.

How does all this affect the larger Al Qaeda organization? Last year, Al Qaeda was predicting the rapid withdraw of U.S. Forces, the coming Salafist Caliphate in Iraq, and the destruction of the West. This year, Bin Laden and Zawahiri have been reduced to laying blame for their demise on Islamic "traitors" and spouting lies even Al Jazeera cannot believe resulting in a loss of jihadist joining the organization and motivation within Al Qaeda in Iraq's ranks. Undoubted, it has also resulted in a loss of financial support.

Al Qaeda has pulled the plug on Al Qaeda in Iraq and has moved their primary battle to Pakistan in the hopes of gaining advanced weaponry (tanks, planes, and nuclear weapons) and a state from which to reconstitute their movement from. However, in their irrogance in trying to silence one person (Bhutto) in order to weaken another (Musharraf), they appear to have caused a significant collapse in their populuar support in Pakistan.

Recent denials by the Taliban of involvement in Bhutto's assassination is helping to fracture Al Qaeda's Taliban base in Pakistan much the same way that Al Qaeda alienated it Sunni base in Al Anbar.