To Resolve an Insurgency - Part II

To Resolve an Insurgency - Part I can be found here.

The insurgency cycle can be interrupted at any place along its continuum. Some areas are more difficult to disrupt than others, but none the less, all can be interrupted and stopped.

But a couple of highlights are worth mentioning.

Fundaments which insurgents capitalize upon to gain control:

• Weak central government
• Security concerns of citizens are not met
• Basic services (SWEAT) of citizens are not met
• Large segment of population is unemployed
• Clan/Tribal/Party leaders are ignored in central government

Prior to examining all of these fundaments in detail, it must be understood that not all of these must be in place to prevent insurgents from gaining control. Some may be more important in different countries/regions than others, but generally security is the greatest concern, followed by basic services, employment and finally involvement of clan/tribal/party leaders. However, one thing is certain, if a government only has one of these fundaments as its strength, it is at risk of being overthrown by insurgents. Conversely, if a government is able to maintain a many of these fundamentals to a high degree, it will florish.

Central Government: A central government is the basic building block or foundation for all other fundamentals. It can provide security, basic services, employ the populous and engage clan/tribal/party leaders to maintain control. Below is a diagram of this foundation.


Security: Security is the most basic of needs of a population. Without it, a population cannot grow, create, and aspire.

Basic Services: The most basic of services are sewage, water, electricity, academics, and trash (SWEAT). Sewage, water, and trash must be taken care of for a society to survive. Electricity must be available for a society to grow. Academics must be present to allow a society to persist and flourish.

Employment: The basic human need to provide for oneself and a family must met. At its most rudimentary level, employment is necessary to provide solely for the basic services above. In this form, it also provides security to an individual or family.

Clan/Tribal/Party Leadership: All individuals want to be part of something. It is in our nature. In many Muslim societies, the clan or tribe is an integral part of society. Even in the United States political party alignment is important to most individuals. At the very least, being a part of a company that employs an individual, whether a bank, a store, or a major corporation, often defines an individual.

With all the definitions done, where does this leave us? How can we use it to affect Iraqi society today? How can the re-established Somali government use it to affect Somalia?

First, I will go to Somalia as they are right now where the US was in Apr/May 2003. In Somalia, the insurgency cycle was interrupted at point seven in the cycle. The insurgents were routed by an organized Army. It is now up to the Somali/Ethiopian government to establish a strong central government, re-establish security, provide basic services, employ the populous, and to involve clan/tribal/party leaders to prevent the old or another insurgency from gaining strength in Somalia. It will be interesting to see if the re-established Somali government with Ethiopian backing can make this happen. Will Somalia become a strong, democratic government or will it continue to be controlled by warlords or will another Islamic insurgency take control and start the cycle all over again?

It is of special note that I did not include a democracy as one of the pillars of a stable society in the picture above. Many countries have persisted and still do persist, but lack any democratic principles. Democracies allow individual citizens in a country/region to focus the government. If a democratic government does not listen and act to the will of the people, it will soon be out of office, either by another elected government/party or by an insurgency (whether internally or externally supported).

Iraqi leaders and leaders in the west may want to examine what happens in Somalia in the near future and learn from their successes and failures. It may very well help western societies to quell Islamic insurgencies in other parts of the world.

I will discuss what is needed to quell the insurgency in Iraq in Part III.