Tables are turning against President Ahmadinejad of Iran.
The UN Security Council on Saturday (23 Dec 06) voted unanimously to impose sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment. Not surprisingly, the Iranian government immediately rejected the resolution and Ahmadinejad stated,
"This will not damage the nation of Iran, but its issuers will soon regret this superficial and nil act."
In addition, President Ahmadinejad was rebuked in recent twin elections in Iran.
His first defeat came in the Assembly of Experts where Ayatollah Khamenehi block won 40 of the 86 seats available. Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani split the remaining seats. Ayatollah Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmadinejad's first choice to rule the Assembly of Experts, came way down the list of those elected in Tehran. Ayatollah Hussein Gheravi, the faction's standard-bearer in the key province of Khorassan, where the holy city of Mashhad is located, failed to win a seat.
While Ahmadinejad's party gained control of 27 of 30 provinces in munical elections, his defeat was noted in Tehran where Muhammad-Baqer Qalibaf, who parted company with Ahmadinejad's party awhile back, won control of Tehran.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah's "sit-in" continues to wreck the Lebanese economy to the sum total of $70 million per day, as did the summer war with Israel, which cost $2.8 billion in damage to Lebanese infrastructure. Support for Hezbollah's attempt to overthrow the popular Siniora government is waning and Hezbollah is now promising to escalate the campaign after the holidays to force the Siniora government to accept their demands.
Iranian backed Sadr is still negotiating his way back into parliament. How this turns out waits to be seen.
Leaders in Syria are continuing to be investigated for the murders of Hariri last year and Gemayel this year.
Meanwhile, the US Central Command has requested a second carrier battle group be sent to the Persian Gulf.
So where does this leave us?
Ahmadinejad was handily defeated in the Assembly of Experts and therefore will not be able to pursue his incendiary rhetoric with direct actions. People in Tehran, fearful of his rhetoric, turned out in large numbers to vote against him. This result in his hometown must make him somewhat timid. Hezbollah is not gaining popular support and is continuing to wreck the Lebanese economy. Sadr is somewhat isolated and is trying to gain support in Iraq. Syria is under continual investigation for assassinations. Iran's economy is already a wreck. Sanctions could make it more so. And a second carrier battle group may be on its way to the Persian Gulf.
The time is ripe for the US to increase pressure on Tehran which may result in the loss of power of Syria, Hezbollah, Sadr, or Ahmadinejad himself. Any one of these would be another significant blow to the presidency of Ahmadinejad and go a long way to putting him back in his place. It seems that all these avenues are being worked by the Bush administration. It will be interesting to look back on 2007 around this time to see if we played our cards better than Ahmadinejad.
"This will not damage the nation of Iran, but its issuers will soon regret this superficial and nil act."
In addition, President Ahmadinejad was rebuked in recent twin elections in Iran.
His first defeat came in the Assembly of Experts where Ayatollah Khamenehi block won 40 of the 86 seats available. Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani split the remaining seats. Ayatollah Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmadinejad's first choice to rule the Assembly of Experts, came way down the list of those elected in Tehran. Ayatollah Hussein Gheravi, the faction's standard-bearer in the key province of Khorassan, where the holy city of Mashhad is located, failed to win a seat.
While Ahmadinejad's party gained control of 27 of 30 provinces in munical elections, his defeat was noted in Tehran where Muhammad-Baqer Qalibaf, who parted company with Ahmadinejad's party awhile back, won control of Tehran.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah's "sit-in" continues to wreck the Lebanese economy to the sum total of $70 million per day, as did the summer war with Israel, which cost $2.8 billion in damage to Lebanese infrastructure. Support for Hezbollah's attempt to overthrow the popular Siniora government is waning and Hezbollah is now promising to escalate the campaign after the holidays to force the Siniora government to accept their demands.
Iranian backed Sadr is still negotiating his way back into parliament. How this turns out waits to be seen.
Leaders in Syria are continuing to be investigated for the murders of Hariri last year and Gemayel this year.
Meanwhile, the US Central Command has requested a second carrier battle group be sent to the Persian Gulf.
So where does this leave us?
Ahmadinejad was handily defeated in the Assembly of Experts and therefore will not be able to pursue his incendiary rhetoric with direct actions. People in Tehran, fearful of his rhetoric, turned out in large numbers to vote against him. This result in his hometown must make him somewhat timid. Hezbollah is not gaining popular support and is continuing to wreck the Lebanese economy. Sadr is somewhat isolated and is trying to gain support in Iraq. Syria is under continual investigation for assassinations. Iran's economy is already a wreck. Sanctions could make it more so. And a second carrier battle group may be on its way to the Persian Gulf.
The time is ripe for the US to increase pressure on Tehran which may result in the loss of power of Syria, Hezbollah, Sadr, or Ahmadinejad himself. Any one of these would be another significant blow to the presidency of Ahmadinejad and go a long way to putting him back in his place. It seems that all these avenues are being worked by the Bush administration. It will be interesting to look back on 2007 around this time to see if we played our cards better than Ahmadinejad.
posted by Lieutenant Colonel Caveman at Sunday, December 24, 2006
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