The Future of GWOT - A Critical Juncture
In line with the Hatch Amendment, I have been rather silent in the last month. As a military officer, it is my job to ensure Soldiers are trained to win the nation's wars. Training of Soldiers is stellar. So, I like many officers and noncommissioned officers have done our job. The Army is prepared to win the nation's wars from all enemies, foreign and domestic.
However, the Army may not win the war against Islamists. There exist three reasons for this supposition.
First, When President Bush Sr brought the US Army down from 1.1 million to 750,000, the Army could still possibly fight two near simultaneous wars. President Clinton brought the number down to 473,000, ensuring we could no longer execute two near simultaneous wars. We are seeing this fact play out now in Iraq and Afghanistan. While I believe that around 130,000 to 150,000 troops are adequate in Iraq, what is not adequate is that another 150,000 troops are gearing up to replace these troops in Iraq and another 150,000 troops are reconstituting their units from their one year in Iraq. This effectively results in the entire Army either deployed, prepping for deployment, or recovering from deployment. We cannot execute another operation at this time. This fact is the key to why we may very well lose the GWOT and more specifically in Iraq.
We are witnessing Iran's overt influence in the new democracy in Iraq as Iran tries to exert its power in the Middle East to counter the Salafist movement. While we can diplomatically try to influence Iran, enact economic sanctions against them given the information we know about their regime and nuclear aspirations, we cannot enforce any of these instruments of national power given our current troop strength. Hence, diplomacy and economic sanctions against Iran are sure to fail. Iran will continue to build its influence over the Middle East. Hezbollah may very well control Lebanon prior to Christmas resulting in Syrian influence once again overpowering this democracy. Hamas will keep Israel contained in Gaza to allow this new theocracy in Lebanon to gain strength. The fledgling government of Iraq will then be surrounded by and engulfed by its Shi'ite brothers, a situation that Sadr seeks.
Secondly, The leaders of the Defense Department, to include senior military leaders, the President, and Congress does not have the stomach to fight this war with the ferocity it needs to win.
Our enemies, both Salafists and Khomeinists have united their efforts against their enemy, namely western democracy, freedom, and thought. The Salafists now have safe havens in Pakistan and Somalia. The Khomenists have safe havens in Iran, Syria, and soon Lebanon. While not ensuring their actions are synchronized militarily, they are using each others actions to increase their influence in the Middle East and in the process tying up American forces in Iraq to prevent direct action against either adversery.
Due to our current troop strength, we do not have the assets to contain Salafists in Pakistan and win in Afghanistan. We do not have the assets to contain in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, and win in Iraq. We do not have the assets to even influence actions in Somalia.
Thirdly, the election of Democrats to the majority in the Senate and the House show me that number one and two are not going to change anytime soon. If Republicans in control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House could not fight GWOT with the feracity needed, I am hard pressed to believe Democrats in control of the Senate and House are going to aid this effort given their cut and run philosophy in Iraq. Once timetables are decided in Iraq, Afghanistan will soon to follow. Once American resolve in Iraq turns, NATO resolve in Afghanistan will soon waiver.
So, where does this leave us?
Slowly but surely, we will withdraw from Iraq and then Afghanistan. Once Salafists control Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia and Khomeinists control Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, there are two possible scenarios.
Salafist and Khomeinists will attack each other for domination of these regions or they will continue their efforts against the west, destroy Israel, move north to further entrench Islam in Europe, and finally to America to conquer the Great Satan. Given their current cooperation, the later is most likely the case.
Is all lost? Quite simply, No.
Europe and America will wake up and recognize the enemy that faces us, namely, an enemy that seeks our utter destruction and will not rest until it completes this destruction.
The enemy is now emboldened given their strategic victories in America with the recent Republican loss in Congress, the weakening of Tony Blair in the UK, the inaction against the intifada in Paris, the successful consolidation of power in Somalia, and the re-establishment of Talibanism in Pakistan tribal areas. This embolded feeling will result in Salafists once again attacking Europe and the US. It is only a matter of time.
This attack on the west, especially an attack on the US, will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. All westerners will realize that we cannot cut and run because this enemy will follow us to our nations, to our neighborhoods, and to our homes.
Just like Hitler, who was not content with mainland Europe, Islamists will not be satisfied with the Middle East. They will continue to attack until this faction is destroyed or we are destroyed. It is that simple.
At this point, political correctness will wane and the western people will rise, with all their technological might, and destroy Islamists in the Middle East, in Europe, in the Americas, and in Africa.
It will truly be a world war as opposed to how we are trying to fight GWOT now with minimal troop strength, with political correctness, and without engaging neighboring countries who are contributing to the insurgency, namely Pakistan and Iran.
Can this be shortened or forestalled? Yes.
If we and our allies fully engage, with all our instruments of national power (diplomatic, information, military, and economic), the countries which are harboring and aiding Islamists, we can prevent a truly world war. Unfortunately, I do not believe the west has the stomach for this action at this time. It will take another major attack in Europe or the US to get all free loving, democratic nations united against the evil that Islamists represent.
The attack will come. The Islamists have stated they will attack and destroy the west. Unfortunately, we have not listened. If destroying the World Trade center, killing people in the subways of London or on trains in Madrid did not make us stand up and listen, Islamist will then just bring about greater attacks until we listen. Rest assured, the attacks are coming. If we don't listen the next time, we will surely perish, as we should.
However, the Army may not win the war against Islamists. There exist three reasons for this supposition.
First, When President Bush Sr brought the US Army down from 1.1 million to 750,000, the Army could still possibly fight two near simultaneous wars. President Clinton brought the number down to 473,000, ensuring we could no longer execute two near simultaneous wars. We are seeing this fact play out now in Iraq and Afghanistan. While I believe that around 130,000 to 150,000 troops are adequate in Iraq, what is not adequate is that another 150,000 troops are gearing up to replace these troops in Iraq and another 150,000 troops are reconstituting their units from their one year in Iraq. This effectively results in the entire Army either deployed, prepping for deployment, or recovering from deployment. We cannot execute another operation at this time. This fact is the key to why we may very well lose the GWOT and more specifically in Iraq.
We are witnessing Iran's overt influence in the new democracy in Iraq as Iran tries to exert its power in the Middle East to counter the Salafist movement. While we can diplomatically try to influence Iran, enact economic sanctions against them given the information we know about their regime and nuclear aspirations, we cannot enforce any of these instruments of national power given our current troop strength. Hence, diplomacy and economic sanctions against Iran are sure to fail. Iran will continue to build its influence over the Middle East. Hezbollah may very well control Lebanon prior to Christmas resulting in Syrian influence once again overpowering this democracy. Hamas will keep Israel contained in Gaza to allow this new theocracy in Lebanon to gain strength. The fledgling government of Iraq will then be surrounded by and engulfed by its Shi'ite brothers, a situation that Sadr seeks.
Secondly, The leaders of the Defense Department, to include senior military leaders, the President, and Congress does not have the stomach to fight this war with the ferocity it needs to win.
Our enemies, both Salafists and Khomeinists have united their efforts against their enemy, namely western democracy, freedom, and thought. The Salafists now have safe havens in Pakistan and Somalia. The Khomenists have safe havens in Iran, Syria, and soon Lebanon. While not ensuring their actions are synchronized militarily, they are using each others actions to increase their influence in the Middle East and in the process tying up American forces in Iraq to prevent direct action against either adversery.
Due to our current troop strength, we do not have the assets to contain Salafists in Pakistan and win in Afghanistan. We do not have the assets to contain in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, and win in Iraq. We do not have the assets to even influence actions in Somalia.
Thirdly, the election of Democrats to the majority in the Senate and the House show me that number one and two are not going to change anytime soon. If Republicans in control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House could not fight GWOT with the feracity needed, I am hard pressed to believe Democrats in control of the Senate and House are going to aid this effort given their cut and run philosophy in Iraq. Once timetables are decided in Iraq, Afghanistan will soon to follow. Once American resolve in Iraq turns, NATO resolve in Afghanistan will soon waiver.
So, where does this leave us?
Slowly but surely, we will withdraw from Iraq and then Afghanistan. Once Salafists control Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia and Khomeinists control Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, there are two possible scenarios.
Salafist and Khomeinists will attack each other for domination of these regions or they will continue their efforts against the west, destroy Israel, move north to further entrench Islam in Europe, and finally to America to conquer the Great Satan. Given their current cooperation, the later is most likely the case.
Is all lost? Quite simply, No.
Europe and America will wake up and recognize the enemy that faces us, namely, an enemy that seeks our utter destruction and will not rest until it completes this destruction.
The enemy is now emboldened given their strategic victories in America with the recent Republican loss in Congress, the weakening of Tony Blair in the UK, the inaction against the intifada in Paris, the successful consolidation of power in Somalia, and the re-establishment of Talibanism in Pakistan tribal areas. This embolded feeling will result in Salafists once again attacking Europe and the US. It is only a matter of time.
This attack on the west, especially an attack on the US, will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. All westerners will realize that we cannot cut and run because this enemy will follow us to our nations, to our neighborhoods, and to our homes.
Just like Hitler, who was not content with mainland Europe, Islamists will not be satisfied with the Middle East. They will continue to attack until this faction is destroyed or we are destroyed. It is that simple.
At this point, political correctness will wane and the western people will rise, with all their technological might, and destroy Islamists in the Middle East, in Europe, in the Americas, and in Africa.
It will truly be a world war as opposed to how we are trying to fight GWOT now with minimal troop strength, with political correctness, and without engaging neighboring countries who are contributing to the insurgency, namely Pakistan and Iran.
Can this be shortened or forestalled? Yes.
If we and our allies fully engage, with all our instruments of national power (diplomatic, information, military, and economic), the countries which are harboring and aiding Islamists, we can prevent a truly world war. Unfortunately, I do not believe the west has the stomach for this action at this time. It will take another major attack in Europe or the US to get all free loving, democratic nations united against the evil that Islamists represent.
The attack will come. The Islamists have stated they will attack and destroy the west. Unfortunately, we have not listened. If destroying the World Trade center, killing people in the subways of London or on trains in Madrid did not make us stand up and listen, Islamist will then just bring about greater attacks until we listen. Rest assured, the attacks are coming. If we don't listen the next time, we will surely perish, as we should.
posted by Lieutenant Colonel Caveman at Sunday, November 19, 2006
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