Update: Is man made (anthropogenic) effects causing global warming? Yes, So far it accounts for about a 0.0000189°C increase.
About a year ago, I blogged about whether or not man made (anthropogenic) effects caused global warming. The conclusion reached then was that increases in CO2 concentration did not cause a significant increase in temperatures. In fact, it was concluded that the sun accounted for the changes. This assertion has now been proven with work conducted by Henrik Svensmark (et al).
Mr. Svensmark concludes that cosmic radiation is responsible for increases or decreases in the Mean Global Temperature (MGT) of the Earth. But if cosmic radiation is relatively constant in the universe, why would there be a change in cosmic radiation on the Earth over different time periods?
Mr. Svensmark shows a direct relationship between sunspot activity, the sun's magnetic field, solar wind and the amount of cosmic radiation that reaches the Earth. During times of high sun activity, which we are seeing now, proportionally less cosmic radiation hits the Earth resulting in less lower cloud cover thereby resulting in an increase in MGT. During the Climate Optimum (900-1100), the sun activity was closer to what it is today, resulting in very temperate weather. During the Little Ice Age (1300-1800), sun activity was minimal resulting in extremely cold, gloomy temperatures.
Mr. Svensmark goes on to state the the 2% decrease in cloud cover of the last five years accounts for 85% of the temperature increase the IPCC has contributed to increases in CO2 concentration.
Therefore, as stated earlier, increases in CO2 concentration are not significantly affecting temperature changes.
That big bright ball, called the Sun, that brings the MGT from -270°C to 12°C is responsible for the current temperate climate we are enjoying. Variations in the Sun's activity is currently responsible for a increase of the MGT of 1.785°C to an MGT of 13.8°C. Given that the current MGT of the Earth is 14.1°C, that means at most, increase CO2 concentrations are responsible for a 0.03°C temperature increase.
But since atmospheric water vapor is responsible for about 94% of greenhouse temperature variations, this means that all other greenhouse gases (to include increased CO2 concentrations) can only account for about 0.0018°C temperature increase. Given that methane accounts for 15-20% of a greenhouse effect and CFCs contribute another 25%, this leaves CO2 to account for at most 60% or a rise or 0.00108°C. Since CO2 has recently doubled, this means this doubling of CO2 concentration can only account for a rise of 0.00054°C.
Finally, since manmade (anthropogenic) CO2 accounts for about 3.5% of the whole annual contribution from natural sources (decaying plants, geothermal systems/volcanoes, limestone erosion, forest fires, and respiration from plants and animals, this leave only 0.0000189°C to actually be attributed man made CO2 concentration.
Hat Tip to Junkscience.com for introducing me to this recent article.
Mr. Svensmark concludes that cosmic radiation is responsible for increases or decreases in the Mean Global Temperature (MGT) of the Earth. But if cosmic radiation is relatively constant in the universe, why would there be a change in cosmic radiation on the Earth over different time periods?
Mr. Svensmark shows a direct relationship between sunspot activity, the sun's magnetic field, solar wind and the amount of cosmic radiation that reaches the Earth. During times of high sun activity, which we are seeing now, proportionally less cosmic radiation hits the Earth resulting in less lower cloud cover thereby resulting in an increase in MGT. During the Climate Optimum (900-1100), the sun activity was closer to what it is today, resulting in very temperate weather. During the Little Ice Age (1300-1800), sun activity was minimal resulting in extremely cold, gloomy temperatures.
Mr. Svensmark goes on to state the the 2% decrease in cloud cover of the last five years accounts for 85% of the temperature increase the IPCC has contributed to increases in CO2 concentration.
Therefore, as stated earlier, increases in CO2 concentration are not significantly affecting temperature changes.
That big bright ball, called the Sun, that brings the MGT from -270°C to 12°C is responsible for the current temperate climate we are enjoying. Variations in the Sun's activity is currently responsible for a increase of the MGT of 1.785°C to an MGT of 13.8°C. Given that the current MGT of the Earth is 14.1°C, that means at most, increase CO2 concentrations are responsible for a 0.03°C temperature increase.
But since atmospheric water vapor is responsible for about 94% of greenhouse temperature variations, this means that all other greenhouse gases (to include increased CO2 concentrations) can only account for about 0.0018°C temperature increase. Given that methane accounts for 15-20% of a greenhouse effect and CFCs contribute another 25%, this leaves CO2 to account for at most 60% or a rise or 0.00108°C. Since CO2 has recently doubled, this means this doubling of CO2 concentration can only account for a rise of 0.00054°C.
Finally, since manmade (anthropogenic) CO2 accounts for about 3.5% of the whole annual contribution from natural sources (decaying plants, geothermal systems/volcanoes, limestone erosion, forest fires, and respiration from plants and animals, this leave only 0.0000189°C to actually be attributed man made CO2 concentration.
Hat Tip to Junkscience.com for introducing me to this recent article.
posted by Lieutenant Colonel Caveman at Saturday, October 14, 2006
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