Baghdad returns to normal after day-long curfew

Reuters at Yahoo has an article entitled "Baghdad returns to normal after day-long curfew" after a security guard for the Sunni politician, Adnan al-Dulaimi, apparently gave up information that an complex attack on the green zone was imminent. The article goes on to explain that an attack like this was foiled in the past and listed other attacks that happened yesterday.

One thing the article does not elaborate on is the fact that both this attack and the previous similar attack were foiled and the fact that there has not been a successful complex attack on the green zone. Nor does the article elaborate on the fact that even though the terrorists plotting this attack most assuredly had insider information of security precautions inside the green zone, it was foiled by superior intelligence and quick reaction to intelligence by both American and Iraqi forces.

Try as they might, the terrorists in Iraq cannot plan, organize, and prepare a complex attack. While most assuredly they can put a VBIED in a market to kill and wound dozen of people, they cannot and have not for some time been able to organize and execute complex attacks against the government. The last one, the double VBIED attack on the Sheraton Hotel about a year ago, was also foiled while it was able to be partially executed. Now however, terrorists cannot even get to the execution phase of complex attacks without being compromised.

These facts point to increased abilities of Iraqi Security forces and Police and increased intelligence abilities of American and Iraqi forces. Increased intelligence points to the fact that not only are Iraqi and American forces intercepting SIGINT (signal intelligence) which by share volume may tell you an attack is imminent, but also are getting HUMINT (human intelligence). The difference is that HUMINT allows forces to foil attacks, where SIGINT more often than not only allows you to alert forces of an impending attack which you may then stop during execution.

These facts taken together point to the death of the insurgency as discussed several times in this blog. Namely, a successful insurgency must have both an unassailable base and tacit support of the populace. Both of these critical requirements have been taken away from the insurgency.

This attack was foiled after an insurgent, arrested in a politician's home, gave up intelligence. Now a politician's movements are pretty well known and will be reviewed to see where and when he went places, which may lead to more intelligence. The arrested insurgent obviously gave up much information for the curfew to be imposed on both foot and vehicular traffic. This intelligence will be reviewed and may very well lead to more arrests and foiled attacks.

The terrorists' ability to carry out a successful attack gives them a lot of motivation and propaganda. Conversely, their inability to carry out an attack not only limits the propaganda and motivation of the insurgency, but also jeopardizes members of the group and makes them extremely vulnerable to compromise at some future point. The politician is obviously compromised, but soon so will his base of support, in this case, most probably Sunni insurgents who will soon see their end.

As eight HVTs were arrested in the month of September, watch now many more HVTs to be arrested or killed in October. Continue to watch in the month of October as Operation Forward Together has another month under its belt. Continue to watch in the month of October as Anbar Tribal Leaders fight the terrorists. As these tribal leaders enlists their tribal members in the Iraqi Army, Anbar is certain to be contained in the coming months. Continue to watch Iraq as Iraqi Police and Security Forces grow stronger everyday. Continue to watch the death of the insurgency unfold.