Iraq tribal chiefs sign 'pact of honor'

AP at Yahoo notes,

Hundreds of Iraqi tribal chiefs gave important support Saturday to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's national reconciliation plan...

"Realizing the gravity of the situation our country is undergoing, we pledge in front of God and the Iraqi people to be sincere and serious in preserving the unity of our country," said the agreement signed by tribal leaders and sheiks.

The chiefs also pledged to "work hard to stop the bloodletting and ... sectarian killings that have nothing to do with our values."

The extreme importance of this pledge cannot be understated. Tribal relationships are the backbone of Arab culture. The fact that "hundreds of Iraqi tribal chiefs" have formed an alliance to "stop the bloodletting" and are "serious in preserving the unity of our country" is a serious blow to the insurgency in Iraq.

James J. Schneider pointed out in his 1995 article, "T.E. Lawrence and the Mind of an Insurgent", that an insurgency must have six principles to survive and be successful. Let's examine each of these principles and analyze the success of the Iraqi Insurgency vice the Iraqi government and Coalition in these principles.

• First, a successful guerrilla movement must have an unassailable base.

Past action in Fulluja, Mosul, Ramadi, and now Bahgdad have all but eliminated safe havens from which terrorist can operate from in Iraq. While some still exist, as more and more Iraqi Security Force units begin to control their battlespace, "unassailable bases" for insurgents in Iraq are growing smaller each day.

• Second, the guerrilla must have a technologically sophisticated enemy.

We are. They do. This fact will not change as long as US forces are involved and as Iraqi Forces continue to grow and strengthen.

• Third, the enemy must be sufficiently weak in numbers so as to be unable to occupy the disputed territory in depth with a system of interlocking fortified posts.

While Coalition forces numbers of around 160,000 may result in these forces "being sufficiently weak in numbers", the fact that Iraqi Security Forces now number more than 267,000, of which half control their own battlespace, lends to the fact that there no longer exists the inability to "occupy disputed territory in depth". As more and more Iraqis control their battlespace, this fact will only become clearer.

• Fourth, the guerrilla must have at least the passive support of the populace, if not its full involvement.

The "hundred of Iraqi tribal chiefs" that just signed onto Maliki's national reconciliation plan has taken this most important principle of support from insurgents. One of the significant issues in Iraq is that the populace allows the insurgent next door to emplace IEDs and to wage violent attacks against their neighbors. This fact is why we do not have an isurgency in America. The Smiths won't let the Jones get away with it. This principle has just flip-flopped against the insurgents. This tribal chiefs uniting is highly significant and will rapidly cause the insurgency in Iraq to crumble. It will only get worse for insurgents as more tribal chiefs sign onto the reconciliation plan.

• Fifth, the irregular force must have the fundamental qualities of speed, endurance, presence and logistical independence.

The insurgents have speed, but this speed is constantly challenged by the speed of our intelligence, which is improving daily, especially as more and more citizens come forth with information. The death of Zarqawi points to this fact. The endurance of the insurgents is not to be questioned. However, their presence and logistical independence is now significantly questioned as "hundreds of Iraqi tribal chiefs" have vowed to "stop the bloodletting" and "preserve the unity" of Iraq.

• Sixth, the irregular must be sufficiently advanced in weaponry to strike at the enemy’s logistics and signals vulnerabilities.

They do and will continue to possess as long as Iran continues to support the insurgency with sophisticated weaponry. However, again, the employment of over 267,000 Iraqi Security Forces significanly reduces their ability to strike vulnerable nodes. This ability will continue to wane for the insurgents as more and more Iraqis control their own battlespace.

So, 3 1/2 years after unseating Saddam, the insurgency is losing more and more of its core abilities that it needs to sustain itself. It has now lost its most significant ability, namely, the passive support of the populace as tribal chiefs have banded together to support unity.

As stated before, a democratic Iraq is a beacon of light that is continually shining brighter for all in the Middle East to see. Iraqis have lived under oppression for over three decades. They have lived under an insurgency for over three years. They are sick and tied of it and will be led to freedom by tribal chiefs who have signed on to Maliki's national reconciliation plan.

Civil war, no. Civic responsibility, now more than ever.