Now is the time to think big in the Middle East

The Daily Star has a great analysis regarding the current war in Lebanon. Some of the most interesting analysis is below.

The war in Lebanon is not a war by the Arab world against Israel; rather, it is a war orchestrated by the region's radical forces - Hamas and Islamic Jihad among the Palestinians, Hizbullah in Lebanon, together with Syria and Iran - that reject any settlement with Israel. Conflict was sought for three reasons:

1. First to ease pressure on Hamas from within the Palestinian community to recognize Israel;
2. Second to undermine democratization in Lebanon, which was marginalizing Syria; and
3. Third to lift attention from the emerging dispute over the Iranian nuclear program and demonstrate to the West the "tools" at itsdisposal in the case of conflict.

It goes on to state,

The folly of this is readily apparent, because it doesn't require much imagination to see what the Middle East would look like if an Iranian nuclear umbrella were shielding the radicals. This miscalculation will become obvious as four developments unfold:

1. First, Israel avoids being sucked into a ground war in Lebanon;
2. Second, United Nations Resolution 1559 - which requires the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon with the help of the international community - is enforced and a return to the status quo rendered impossible;
3. Third, today's de facto "anti-hegemon" coalition, comprising moderate Arab countries (including moderate Palestinians), is transformed into a robust and serious peace initiative; and
4. Fourth, the "Quartet," led by the United States, becomes actively engaged for a viable solution and provides the necessary political, economic, and military guarantees to sustain it over time.

For a full read of the insightful article, click here.