Israel's Mindset - Stalemate or Major Offensive?
- This war was started by Hezbollah kidnapping 2 Soldiers and killing 3 Soldiers in a cross-border raid. An additional 5 Soldiers were killed by mines and booby-traps as Israeli forces moved north towards Lebanon to save its Soldiers. This level of sophistication by Hezbollah was not typical of their past kidnapping actions. It pointed to a higher level of strategy than typical terrorists attacks.
- The Irsaeli ship, a Saar-5 Corvette class, was hit by a C-802 guided missile. Again, this attack pointed to a higher level of sophistication than Hezbollah typically was able to muster in the past.
- Unlike previous kidnappings, Israel struck Hezbollah (and Hamas) rather violently. Mahmoud Komati, the deputy chief of the Hezbollah politburo, in fact stated, "Israeli responses to Hezbollah actions had included sending commandos into Lebanon and kidnapping Hezbollah officials or briefly targeting specific Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon." Israel's reaction, or counter-attack, was meant to steal the initiative from Hezbollah to put them on the defensive and gain the offensive for Israel. This succeeded.
- Israel seems to have had its nose bloodied in the battle of Bint Jbeil with nine dead. Its ground offensive has ground to a halt, loosing the offensive initiative they had gained earlier with air strikes. As Paul from Powerline points out in the 1980's Israel suffered a hundred dead in the same town. I do not think Israel, knowing what is at stake in this war, would turn tail with such a small number dead given prior losses. More likely, this is a tactical pause.
- What Israel accomplished with the Golani Battalion 51 in Bint Jbeil was to update intelligence by executing a reconnaissance by fire or a movement to contact. Israel has been out of Lebanon for over five years. Much changes in five years. Reports of complex underground bunkers is just one of the changes. The Golani Battalion 51 allowed Israel to update intelligence of the level of sophistication of ground forces given their surprises in levels of sophistication of surface-to-surface missiles and anti-tank missiles. It is now time for Israel to keep up the air strikes while gaining time to analyze updated intelligence to better protect its Soldiers.
- Soldiers of the Golani Battalion has been in continuous combat for almost two weeks in Lebanon and prior to that were in Gaza, severely taking a toll on its Soldiers and equipment.
- Israel is getting better precision-guided munitions from the United States to not only limit civilian casualties, but also to better effectively allow air support for ground troops in close in battle like Bint Jbeil in the future. These munitions have proven extremely effective in Iraq at limiting civilian casualties while greatly enhancing close air support to ground troops.
- Israeli's Security Cabinet approved the activation of 30,000 reservists or three Israeli Divisions. This fact, more than anything, can be seen as buying Israel time to build up combat power for a subsequent ground invasion into Lebanon while maintaining forces to continue the fight in Gaza and providing a follow-on reserve as needed. The activation of this many troops also brings Israel the logistic capability to support continuous combat operations far away from friendly borders.
- Israeli's Security Cabinet did not disapprove of a widening of the ground attack according to General Halutz, "We did not request approval for a ground operation today, so the cabinet did not approve a ground operation," he said. "We asked for the right to prepare the reserves for a time when we might need them, and we got that from the government."
- Given the surprises that Hezbollah has brought to the table in this conflict, it would not be tactically smart for Israel to show their cards at this time, therefore, all Israel is saying is that they are not widening the war at this time. That does not prevent them from planning and rehearsing and coming back later after Hezbollah is softened up more from air strikes to request a larger ground attack.
- Hamas has signalled its intent to accept a ceasefire. A ceasefire over the next week, would allow Israel to focus all combat power on Hezbollah. Without a ceasefire, Israel can still fight and economy of force effort against Hamas.
All of these factors lead me to believe that the activation/call-up of 30,000 reservists will allow Israel the tactical time needed to match these Soldiers with their equipment; integrate lessoned learned about Hezbollah's tactics and new capabilities; and allow them to develop, deliver, and rehearse offensive orders for future ground attacks into Lebanon.
Only time will tell. But, I cannot believe, given the unique circumstances of moderate Arab governments actually not demanding an immediate ceasefire and blaming Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran for the current crisis, that Israel will settle for the current stalemate and not execute all out war to defeat Hezbollah, and in turn severely harm Syrian and Iranian influence in the Middle East for some time to come.
However, if Israel decides on a stalemate, it will solely bear the responsibility for future attacks.
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