Hamas Blinks

Haaretz reports that Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh called Saturday for Palestinian militants and Israel to halt military operations in Gaza after 11 days of fierce fighting left nearly 40 Palestinians dead. Hamas has blinked. According to Haaretz,

A statement issued by Haniyeh's office in Gaza said: "In order to get out of the current crisis, it is necessary that all parties restore calm on the basis of mutually stopping all military operations."

Israel Radio reported that Haniyeh also called in his statement to restore calm by returning to a ceasefire agreement called "tahadiyeh" and by engaging in "serious negotiations."

Haniyeh now wants all parties (read Hamas militant groups) to stop all military operations. He knows Israel will stop once Cpl Shalit is released. Haniyeh also wants Hamas to return to their ceasefire agreement and to stop firing rockets. The article further points to a change in Hamas' demands.

Hamas sources said Thursday that the group would agree to release the Shalit and stop firing Qassam rockets at Israel in exchange for the release of all female Palestinian prisoners and about 30 prisoners who have been in Israeli jails for more than 20 years.

The Hamas sources said that organization will also demand that Israel withdraw its forces from the areas of Gaza that it occupied during the past week, release the Palestinian lawmakers that it arrested and end its policy of targeted assassinations.

The sources confirmed Thursday's report about this offer in the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat, as well as Hamas' withdrawal of its previous demand for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in return for Shalit.

The article continues that the softening of Hamas' stance was out of fear that, "a long-term IDF operation could lead to public criticism of the abduction and shorten the lifespan of the Hamas government."

In an earlier Blog, I pointed to the fact that Hamas has recently lost a lot of popular support and Fatah now leads in polls. The Palestinian people are frustrated with their choice of Hamas to rule the government. They have seen an almost complete cut in aid and Hamas trying to prevent a "Two-state" solution to the crisis which is favored by a narrow majority of Palestinians.

What is not mentioned in this article and is to be seen is will Israel hold up its end of the bargain immediately, for example, a prisoner exchange, or will the release of prisoners be delayed after working with Abbas.

I believe the later will be the case. It is what Israel had intended to do all along. As mentioned previously, during Olmert's upcoming meeting with Abbas, he had intented to release several "Palestinian prisoners, including those Israel would not release in the past."

The deal will be struck. Hamas will return Cpl Shalit. Israel will pull out of Gaza in a week or two. In a few months after working with Abbas, Israel will not only release the female prisoners that it wanted to release anyway but also release many more.

This crisis is a severe blow for Hamas.

• They started this crisis as an effort to prevent Abbas, and by extension Fatah, from gaining anymore political ground. Israel will now seek to ensure Abbas gets credit for any positive Israeli actions.
• They have been ineffective at protecting their own people from Israeli "invaders" during this crisis they started. Their own ministry buildings have been destroyed, their own ministers have been arrested, and 40 Palestinians killed by their actions.
• They have been ineffective at negotiating the release of the thousand prisoners Israel was planning on releasing anyway. Release will undoubtedly come, but only through negotiations with Abbas and will now be delayed so as to disassociate it with this event.
• This crisis will lengthen the restriction on finiancial aid that has been severely restricted. Any ground gained on limiting restrictions will now be relooked for a few more months.
• Their earlier withdraw from their own ceasefire only a month ago is now going to be reinstated.
• While they may have delayed the vote on a "Two-state" solution, it will still be voted for.
• Israel has gained much intelligence in Gaza from the very fact of being there again. While not being mentioned, this is highly important and will have lasting effects.

All in all, Hamas did not play their cards well in instigating this crisis. They will be weakened by it and have to submit to many political decisions they do not want but their citizenry does. Abbas has gained ground as the mediator between Israel and Hamas. It will be insteresting to see what revolutionary ideas are agreed to in the next six months to a year.

The kidnapping of Cpl Shalit is the beginning of a long but eventual peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians and as mentioned earlier another nail in the coffin of Hamas, and by extension, the Muslim Brotherhood.