The Kurd Defection May Offer Sliver of Hope
Charles Krauthammer at RealClearPolitics offers an interesting insight into the current political impasse in Iraq and why this impasse, seen with dispair in the US may actually be better for Iraq in the long run.
The other impasse is the election of Prime Minister. While Jafari won by one vote, many in Iraq see him as an ineffectual leader. This may be precisely why Sadr's followers voted for him. Continual trouble in Iraq can only be good for Sadr and his secular militia. Charles Krauthammer explains,
Now the Kurds have joined with the opposition Sunni and secular parties to ppose the Shiite bloc. The result is two large competing coalitions: (a) the Kurd-Sunni-secular bloc, which controls about 140 seats in the 275-seat parliament and would constitute the barest majority, and (b) the Shiite bloc, which itself is a coalition of seven not-always-friendly parties and controls 130 seats, slightly less than a majority.He further points out that success in Iraq depends on the whether or not two key ministries (Interior which controls the police and Defense which controls the Army) remain secular. Negotiations regarding these two ministries is one of the reasons for the impasse. With the Kurdish switch, Kurds and Sunnis have more power to ensure nonsecular members lead these two ministries.
The other impasse is the election of Prime Minister. While Jafari won by one vote, many in Iraq see him as an ineffectual leader. This may be precisely why Sadr's followers voted for him. Continual trouble in Iraq can only be good for Sadr and his secular militia. Charles Krauthammer explains,
The Kurd-Sunni-secular bloc wants a new prime minister who will establish a national unity government. Because the United States wants precisely the same outcome, the Kurd defection is very good news in a landscape of almost unrelenting bad news. The other good news is a split in the Shiite bloc, with a near-majority that favors a more technocratic prime minister and is chafing at Sadr's influence. Additionally, the Sunni insurgency is in the midst of its own internecine strife between the local ex-Baathists, who are not particularly religious and want power, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's foreign jihadists, for whom killing Shiites combines sport and religion and who care not a whit for the future of the country. There are numerous reports of Sunni tribes declaring war on these foreign jihadists and of firefights between them.While the US wants resolution in Iraq and the new government to take power, this development which has lead to an impassee may very well be better for Iraqi's future.
posted by Lieutenant Colonel Caveman at Saturday, March 11, 2006
2 Comments:
This split between the Kurds and the Shiites has been buidling for some time. Under Saddam Hussein, the Kurds and the Shiites were under the thumbs of, and thus usually allies, against the Sunnis.
Now that the Shiites, who make up the 60% majority of Iran, are in control, the Kurds have to ally with the Sunnis and the secular forces to avoid a tyranny of the Shiite majority. (It requires a 2/3 vote of the National Assembly to form a government.) In addition, the Kuds are relatively secular, while the vast majority of the Shiites would have Iraq become a theocratic state if they would get away with it. Thus, the Kurds have to overcome their historical grievances against the Sunnis in order ally with the Sunnis and protect their current interests.
I've posted about this at some length on my weblog, The Is-Ought Problem:
Iraqi-Kurdistan: Kurd - Shia Split?
Iraqi Shia Government Preparing For War Against Iraqi Kurdistan?
This split between the Kurds and the Shiites has been buidling for some time. Under Saddam Hussein, the Kurds and the Shiites were under the thumbs of, and thus usually allies, against the Sunnis.
Now that the Shiites, who make up the 60% majority of Iran, are in control, the Kurds have to ally with the Sunnis and the secular forces to avoid a tyranny of the Shiite majority. (It requires a 2/3 vote of the National Assembly to form a government.) In addition, the Kuds are relatively secular, while the vast majority of the Shiites would have Iraq become a theocratic state if they would get away with it. Thus, the Kurds have to overcome their historical grievances against the Sunnis in order ally with the Sunnis and protect their current interests.
I've posted about this at some length on my weblog, The Is-Ought Problem:
Iraqi-Kurdistan: Kurd - Shia Split?
Iraqi Shia Government Preparing For War Against Iraqi Kurdistan?
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