Palestinian Polls Do Not Bode Well For Hamas

A recent poll by the Jerusalem Media & Communication Center shows that 66% of Palestinians believe Hamas should honor all Palestinian Authority committments to negotiate with Israel. As mentioned in an earlier post, Palestinians did not elect Hamas for its terrorist platform, but instead elected Hamas for economics and security. Palestinians voted against Fatah's corruption. The only choice against Fatah was unfortunately Hamas. While maybe not a smart decision, it was their only decision given Fatah was not representing their desires.

Fifty-eight percent of those polled stated that the solution to the Palestinian conflict should be a two-state solution. What is even more striking is that only 10% of those polled believed it should be a Palestinian state over the entire land. It appears that even Palestinians recognize that the only viable solution is a two-state solution, even if Hamas does not recognize this fact. They elected Hamas to ensure their economic stability and security.

It appears from this poll that Palestinians are tired of the intifada and just want what most people want: a stable job, earn some money, raise their children in a secure environment, and enjoy some of freedom's benefits. As stated above, they unfortunately elected a terrorist organization that at least in the short-term will cause loss of economic stability and security.

Israel is halting its $50 million a month payments to the PA and the US will most certainly cut its aid even if the UN and EU don't. This reduction in funds will undoubtedly cause the already strained PA economic situation to get worse. So what will be the outcome?

1. If Israel and the US stick by their rhetoric and withhold aid to the PA, the Palestinian economy will spiral out of control. Hamas, elected for economic stability and security will not be able to uphold their part of the bargain. They will loose support if they don't moderate and Palestinians will either go back to Fatah or a new party will form which will seek peace with Israel to ensure Palestinian economic stability and security. While there will be a period of much turmoil in Palestinian territories during this time, this situation will resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue most quickly.

2. If Israel and the US give in, Hamas will appease the masses by giving a bit here and a bit there to the Palestinian people while still funneling monies to its terrorists groups. This will lead to further Israeli-Palestinian issues down the road. While this will appease the Palestinian people in the short run, it will not satisfy their desires in the long run and the Palestinian will over time elect them out of office for a party who can give them economic stability and security. Maybe Fatah, if it reforms.

As stated before, the election of Hamas is truly a watershed event. They are now in charge to do what a democratic government does, that is rule for the people. If they choose to abuse their newfound power, as Fatah did, they will suffer the same fate. All democratically elected governments do.

While I would not have voted for Hamas, I believe Hamas' election puts them in an untenable position. They will either have to moderate to gain economic stability and security for their people, or they will loose the next election and any support they had from the Palestinians. If they don't moderate and strike at Israel, then Israel now has a government to strike back against.

While democracies do not always elect the right people for the job, they do have the ability to force them out of power when they do not. This is the true secret of a democracy. We in the US have made bad choices during elections in the past, but we were able to vote these bad choices out in 2, 4 or 6 years for better choices.

Another secret about a democracy is the capitalism it produces. I am not talking here about science and services we enjoy in the US, but instead the competition that is produced in politics. Fatah, now a minority will either learn from its mistakes and end its corruption, or it will never see power again. Hamas will either moderate and provide the Palestinian people economic stability and security, or it will be voted out of power. These two parties, and possbly a third or more parties will begin to compete for Palestinian votes. This competition will only benefit the Palestinians in the long run.

While the short term prospects of a Hamas victory scare many, to me it is only getting the Israeli-Palestinian issue solved more quickly. If Palestinians are forced to work for their own money and not given it to them in the form of free aid, the conflict will resolve much more quickly. However, with all quick things that are good, it may very well be costly, not in terms of money, but in terms of short term Middle East security.

Given that the Middle East is now in turmoil as they transition from autocratic states to democratic states, why not let this territory be another beacon of light in the Middle East for all other states to learn from. While many may say that another war in the Middle East may very well cause an international crisis, I suggest that the Palestinians and Israeli have been at war since 1967 (or earlier) anyhow, so why not bring it to a fitting end.