Al Qaeda's Big Mistake

All Things Conservative has some interesting comments on news from Iraq. Instead of sparking a civil war, the bombing of the Askariya Mosque in Samarra is leading to unity among Iraqi Shi'ite and Sunni populations. Protestors, with both Shia and Sunni representation, are expressing outrage at the bombing and are blaming the foreign fighters of Al Qaeda.

From an Iraqi newspaper, the headline was, "Iraqis demonstrate calling for Shiite & Sunni unity" with the text being, “Many Iraqi cities witnessed large demonstrations after Friday prayers (yesterday). These demonstrations were calling for national unity, not being pulled into civil war after attacks on Sunni mosques as retaliation to the bombing of the samara Shiite shrine."

Since mid 2003, Iraq has been a country that has seen the evils of Al Qaeda firsthand. A little over six months ago, Iraqi insurgents begin to split with Al Qaeda in Iraq and recently have started to actively fight against the extreme foreign insurgents. The major cause of the split was Al Qaeda in Iraq's indiscriminate attacks on fellow Muslims. Another reason for the split is Sunnis are seeing how the rest of the country is advancing while they are living in squalor. In fact, their very actions are what is causing the country not to be more prosperous and are preventing them from sharing in the wealth of democracy. The Marines' success in Anbar last year also demonstrated that Al Qaeda in Iraq is not the potent force many Sunnis believed would bring them back to power. Iraqi insurgents helping Al Qaeda in Iraq have attempted to gain legitimacy over the last three years though attacks, but now see this as a failed proposition.

Hence, Iraqi Sunnis demonstrated in December 2005 they wanted to be part of the new democracy in Iraq much to the chagrin of Al Zarqawi, who believes democracy is evil. At this point, Zarqawi begin attacking his base, namely Iraqi Sunnis further alienating his one time base of support. Al Qaeda in Iraq has now attacked a revered mosque in an attempt to win over support.

Maybe it is just me, but I don't see how this attack could be the integrated plan of a cohesive group that believes it is on the verge of successfully overthrowing American forces or the "evil" democracy that is now part of Iraq. It sounds more like a last ditched effort to gain legitimacy through a spectacular event in the hope of inciting a civil war that would bring Shi'ite outrage against Sunnis in the hope of causing Iraqi Sunnis to come back under the fold of Al Qaeda in Iraq for protection.

But Iraqis, who know firsthand the evil and horrors of war, now seem fed up about being pawns in this game. Shi'ites for their part are not playing into the hands of Al Zarqawi. Instead of inciting a sectarian civil war, Al Zarqawi may have incited secular unity. Sure, the last couple of days have seen sectarian battles to "even the score" against what is undoubtedly Al Qaeda in Iraq sympathisers.

But if the headlines from Iraqi newspapers are correct, the mosque bombing may very well be the incalculable destructive act that brings all Iraqis together against the foreign insurgents. The coming days in Iraq will show whether this is close the the final nail in the coffin of Al Qaeda in Iraq or whether Iraqi Sunnis will succumb to fear and follow the evil foreign Islamists who have continued to suppress their freedoms.

With the horrors of war that Iraqis have seen in the last few years at the hands of Al Qaeda, I find it hard to believe that Iraqis can be forced through fear into further submission or collaboration with Al Qaeda in Iraq. This is why we are seeing headlines and protests showing Iraqi unity against Al Qaeda in Iraq instead of the hoped for sectarian civil war.

As the center of gravity for Al Qaeda's battle against the west (read democracy or freedom), if Al Qaeda in Iraq falls so will Al Qaeda in general and other extreme Islamic groups. While Iraq may very well be a training ground for future insurgents, the act of bombing a historic, revered mosque shows Al Qaeda in Iraq's desperation.

If not already lost, their evil cause has been unmasked for all Muslims to see. It would not be surprising to see Bin Laden (if still alive) or Al Zarhawi in a video soon condemning the action. But that too would be another nail in their coffin.