Al Qaeda In Iraq On Its Last Leg

The golden dome of the Askariya Mosque in Samarra, Iraq was heavily damaged by an explosion Wednesday according to the AP at Yahoo.

"The shrine contains the tombs of the 10th and 11th imams, Ali al-Hadi who died in 868 A.D. and his son Hassan al-Askari who died in 874 A.D and was the father of the hidden imam."

"The shrine contains the tombs of two revered Shiite imams, both descendants of the Prophet Muhammad. Tradition says the shrine, which draws Shiite pilgrims from throughout the Islamic world, is near the place where the last of the 12 Shiite imams, Mohammed al-Mahdi, disappeared. Al-Mahdi, known as the "hidden imam," was the son and grandson of the two imams buried in the Askariya shrine."

Gunmen apparently entered the Mosque before sunrise, planted explosives, and then left the Mosque. According to the AP,

"The Sunni Endowments, a government organization that cares for Sunni mosques and shrines, also condemned the blast and said it was sending a delegation to Samarra to investigate what happened."

With the Iraqi government being pressed to fight against sectarian influence in the government, this attack is only going to make a bad situation worse. Two possible causes of the explosion are:

1. Al Qaeda in Iraq or other Salafis insurgent groups set the explosives to incite civil strife and punish the Iraqi government for what it sees as impure leaders controlling Iraq.


2. Shi'ites set the explosives to blame Salfis insurgent groups to incite civil strife in the hope of aiding in the development of a sectarian government in Iraq.

While the second cause is rather remote, it is not out of the realm of possibility. It is doubtful though that Shi'ite hard-liners would destroy such a famous Mosque to forge a more sectarian government. Either way, this explosion is not going to go down well with Shi'ites in Iraq.

The only fortunate event from this catatrophy is the the Sunni Endownments has quickly and publicly condemned the attack. As Sunni religious leaders and tribal chiefs are now actively battling against Al Qaeda in Iraq, this attack does not bode well for Zarqawi's foreign insurgents. His indiscriminate attacks against Iraqi civilians has already caused fractures among moderate and even hard line Sunnis and his organization. This attack will further these divisions and may very well result in much more committed and active Iraqi Army and police force which seeks to destroy or dispel his forces.

The vast majority of Sunnis in Iraq, while smarting from being out of power in the democracy would not stoop to this new low to execute such an attack. The most probable cause of the attack is radical Sunni Salafis who believe the Shi'ites are impure and are attempting to hit the Shi'ites where it would hurt most since they have been unable to prevent democracy in Iraq.

Zarqawi's days are now numbered as is Al Qaeda in Iraq. It would not be suprising to see Zarqawi turning up dead somewhere very shortly. This attack may very well be the straw that broke the insurgency's back in Iraq. Without popular support and a base from which to conduct operations, their downfall is all but assured. We will continue to watch as this situation develops and to see reactions from both Shi'ites and Sunnis in Iraq.