The Achilles Heal of The Coalition of the Willing and Terrorists in General.

Arab News has an excellent article regarding Iran's strengths and weaknesses as its pursues its current nuclear path. Strengths include:

• It has completed “emergency plans to face aggression” and is busy building a network of logistical support facilities in the western and southern provinces.


• Some $3 billion has been added to the regular defense budget in the form of a “supplement for emergency exigencies” under the direct control of the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei.


• The “Supreme Guide” has also created a “High Council of Military Planning” under former Defense Minister Adm. Ali Shamkhani.


• A list of “high priority” sites that might be attacked has been established and their protection against air strikes or ground sabotage operations beefed up.


• Import of “sensitive goods” has been increased to build up stocks to face sanctions.


• The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has transferred some $8 billion of its assets from the European Union to Asia to forestall the possibility of its accounts being frozen by the EU.


• The international network of radical organizations created and supported by Iran has been put on full alert.

Weaknesses include:

• Over the past six months an estimated $300 billion, mostly belonging to small or medium investors, has been transferred from Iran to foreign banks, especially in the Gulf states. (The chief justice of the Islamic Republic Mahmoud Shahroudi puts the figure at $700 billion).


• Over 10,000 Iranian companies have moved their headquarters from Iran to Dubai, Turkey, Cyprus and even Pakistan.


• At least 10 oil companies, among them British Petroleum (UK), Baker-Hughes (US), Halliburton(US), and Conoco-Phillips(US) have either withdrawn from Iran or are winding down operations, even in the Qeshm and Kish “free zones.”


• Several major Western companies have also started their withdrawal from Iran. These include Baker-Hughes (US), Siemens(Germany), General Electric (US) and Phillips (Holland).


• Some international banks are also winding down their activities in Iran. These include Standard-Charter (UK), ABN-Amro(Holland), Credit Suisse (Switzerland), UBS (Switzerland), and the insurance brokers AON Corps.


• The US Treasury Department has revived the long forgotten Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) and is investigating 73 European, American, Canadian and Japanese firms that do business in Iran in violation of its provisions. Many of those firms are likely to withdraw from Iran rather than face being shut out of the US market.


• Iran imports nearly 40 percent of the refined petroleum products it needs from other OPEC members, including Iraq and Kuwait.

Mr. Taheri continues to point to failed threats made by Iran. The Iranian attempt to get OPEC to cut production failed miserably. Not only is OPEC not going to cut production, but they are also seeking at bringing oil down from $50 to $25 per barrel. The other threat noted was Iran seeking to expand the intifada through Hamas and Islamic Jihad. As mentioned earlier, Iran, Syria, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Al Qaeda recently solidified the “Coalition of the Willing”. Hamas’ recent victory in Palestine was unexpected to the coalition and can possibly be the Achilles heal in the coalition. As noted the Arab News article, assets in Iranian banks may have been reduced up to $700 billion as countries begin to leave Iran not only due to threat of sanctions, but also worry over its overt rhetoric. With Hamas’ victory, the PA may lose up to $1 billion annually (from the US and EU) of its $3 billion budget. Another $600 million, collected annually by Israel, is also in threat of not being delivered to the PA. Not just economically, but Hamas, now a leader in the PA Parliament, will be hard-pressed to carry out attacks on Israel without a subsequent retaliation against the PA Parliament directly. Iran’s greatest threat, to expand the intifada, will most likely fail due to these facts.

In addition, the article does not touch on the internal strife in Iran. Ahmadinejad is, behind the scenes, is being confronted by more moderate reformists in Iran. While all most probably agree with his rhetoric regarding the US and Israel, the moderate reformists do not believe the publicity he is bringing to these objectives is in Iran’s best interest. Mr. Taheri points to these weaknesses by identifying the 10,000 company headquarters which as moved their headquarters out of Iran and the ten major oil companies and other companies who’s operations are winding down. This exodus has undoubtedly hurt Iran’s immediate bottom line and long-term ability to maintain it production capacity and economy. As the Iranian economy retracts, Almadinejad will have a more difficult time exporting terrorism.

With the IAEA’s referral of Iran to the Security Council, the stage is becoming set to further isolate Iran. While unable to do anything until next month when it receives the IAEA’s report, Iran is on notice that further progress on its nuclear program will only make the council more and more likely to impose sanctions. If sanctions occur, they should be focused on further limiting external participation and investment in Iran and limiting its access refined fuel. These are the two principle ways to bring Iran back in line with the international community.

As mentioned earlier, the Coalition of the Willing was formed as an attempt to strengthen these groups and states. Iran is being weakened further not only from possible Security Council actions, but by private companies who are pulling assets out of Iran and internal descent from moderates reformists. Hamas, at what should be the heights of its glory, is now under pressure from many governments to renounce its charter and will probably have to rule a PA without well over half of its annual budget. Syria’s Assad is under constant attack from the UN. Al Qaeda’s efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan are not going well. Hezbollah’s support in Lebanon is waning. With this much pressure against these groups and states, it is hard to believe the Coalition of the Willing will maintain its goal of expanding the intifada much less a global caliphate state. One of these states or groups will soon fail, marking a significant reduction in the capabilities of the Coalition of the Willing and quite possibly an end to one or more of these groups or states as sponsors of terrorism.

The Global War on Terrorism will be a long, slow war. However, western countries are in a unique position to keep pressure on the Coalition. Regional powers in the Middle East are becoming less and less supportive of terrorists as their own countries are now in the terrorist sites. Money is the quickest way to limit terroism. Now the leading supplier of monies to terrorist organizations is also having financial troubles of its own as countries are pulling up stakes in preparation for possible sanctions. The PA is also trying to find out how it is going to pay its civil servants, much less terrorist organizations it supports. None of these groups or states could have imagined they would be in this predicament a little over four years after their celebration of 9/11.