Action, Reaction, Now What Will be Counter-Action?
Reaction #1: Palestinians Order Prevention of Attacks
By LARA SUKHTIAN/Associated Press Writer Original Article
RAMALLAH, West Bank - Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas ordered his security forces Monday (17 Jan 05) to try to prevent attacks against Israel and to investigate a shooting at a Gaza Strip crossing that killed six Israeli civilians last week.
Action #4: Sharon tells military to act against Palestinian without restrictions
Israeli Insider Original Article
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on Sunday (16 Jan 05) said he has ordered Israeli forces to intensify military operations to stop Palestinian attacks, adding that the IDF would act without restrictions until Palestinian leaders take action against militants themselves.
Action #3: IDF hits terrorists in Gaza, killing 7
Israeli Insider Original Article
Israeli troops killed six Palestinians and wounded 24 in two separate incidents in the Gaza Strip Saturday (15 Jan 05), residents and hospital officials said. (Note: Mahmoud Abbas takes office this day.)
Action #2: Israel closes crossings, holds off on harsh reprisal despite terror attack
Israel Insider Original Article
Israel sealed off the Gaza Strip on Friday (14 Jan 05), but signaled it will hold off on harsh retaliation for an attack by Palestinian terrorists that killed six Israeli workers at a Gaza cargo crossing, giving newly elected Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas a chance to rein in violent groups.
Action #1: Sharon freezes all ties with PA after intel reveals collaboration in attack
By Israel Insider staff and partners Original Article
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon cut all contact with the newly elected Palestinian leader Friday (14 Jan 05), officials said, promising the silence would continue until Mahmoud Abbas moves to halt terror attacks.
By LARA SUKHTIAN/Associated Press Writer Original Article
RAMALLAH, West Bank - Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas ordered his security forces Monday (17 Jan 05) to try to prevent attacks against Israel and to investigate a shooting at a Gaza Strip crossing that killed six Israeli civilians last week.
Action #4: Sharon tells military to act against Palestinian without restrictions
Israeli Insider Original Article
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on Sunday (16 Jan 05) said he has ordered Israeli forces to intensify military operations to stop Palestinian attacks, adding that the IDF would act without restrictions until Palestinian leaders take action against militants themselves.
Action #3: IDF hits terrorists in Gaza, killing 7
Israeli Insider Original Article
Israeli troops killed six Palestinians and wounded 24 in two separate incidents in the Gaza Strip Saturday (15 Jan 05), residents and hospital officials said. (Note: Mahmoud Abbas takes office this day.)
Action #2: Israel closes crossings, holds off on harsh reprisal despite terror attack
Israel Insider Original Article
Israel sealed off the Gaza Strip on Friday (14 Jan 05), but signaled it will hold off on harsh retaliation for an attack by Palestinian terrorists that killed six Israeli workers at a Gaza cargo crossing, giving newly elected Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas a chance to rein in violent groups.
Action #1: Sharon freezes all ties with PA after intel reveals collaboration in attack
By Israel Insider staff and partners Original Article
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon cut all contact with the newly elected Palestinian leader Friday (14 Jan 05), officials said, promising the silence would continue until Mahmoud Abbas moves to halt terror attacks.
posted by Lieutenant Colonel Caveman at Monday, January 17, 2005
1 Comments:
Wanted to give some insight here. Sharon has been known to play hardball diplomacy. His unilateral withdraw from the Palestinian territories is one such example. He is doing the same thing here, but is also seeing what reactions he will get from Abbas.
First, he cuts ties with Abbas.
Second, he states he will not execute "Harsh Reprisal"
Third, IDF hits and runs.
Fourth, he tells military to strike without restriction.
Reaction:
Abbas orders prevention of attacks.
Like I said, in the title of this post, Abbas' ability to control Palestinians will decide Sharon's counter-reaction and will determine how the Israeli/Palestinian conflict/peace process goes from this point forward.
If Abbas can show some power to control Palestinians, then Sharon will deal with him at the peace table. If he cannot, then the conflict will continue.
This is a harse "Honeymoon" for Abbas and some may think that Sharon is not giving him the chance to get organized. However, since Abbas is not new to this arena and undoubtedly has deep political connections amongst the Palestinians, it is a good test to see how much control he has and is able to solidify.
There exists three outcomes:
1. If Abbas is able to prevent further attack, Sharon's knows he can deal at the peace table with Abbas.
2. If Abbas shows some ability to control attacks, but has not consolidated enough power yet to totally prevent, then Sharon will continue on present course of action and continue to push (albeit harshly) for prevention of all attacks.
3. Abbas will fail to show any ability to control attacks and the conflict will continue until new parties on either side are brought in or power bases are changed.
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